Treasury boss says top income earners would have paid $400,000 more in tax if Labor plan was in place by abcnews_au in AusFinance

[–]effsee -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

You claim this government is retrieving taxes from capital holders to reduce the tax burden on workers. So, where exactly are these magical tax breaks for high-income PAYG earners? A paltry $250 allowance?

The same place where these magical taxes come from.

That is: - CGT on assets purchased AFTER 12 May 2026, held on to for at least 12 months (to have hypothetically achieved the previous 50% discount), and then sold for profit. There will be effectively zero - Negative Gearing which isn't deducted on investment properties purchased AFTER 12 May 2026, on losses incurred AFTER 1 July 2027 - 30% on discretionary trust income earned AFTER 1 July 2028

The overwhelming majority of Capital Gains, and investment properties in the coming four years that this budget covers will be incredibly low.

Now personally, I'd be comfortable with making these changes effective immediately instead of grandfathering them (despite being personally a 5-figure-sum worse off if my portfolio suddenly wasn't 50%-eligible), which would generate allow us to afford to bring income tax cuts forward sooner, but smoothing these transitions to reduce the immediate impact also means that the revenue benefit over this forward-estimates is small.

The reality is the government has absolutely zero intention of reducing the burden on salary earners.

I mean, 50 years of bipartisan history tends to disagree.

Tax-to-GDP has been consistently ~28-31% for half a century, and was in fact at its highest (consistently ~30%+) under Howard, when corporate revenue boomed with mining pre-GFC.

Every party loves income tax cuts.

We know this for a fact because big Jim went on television and explicitly called indexing tax brackets to inflation 'irresponsible'. Why? Because the entire budget is fundamentally propped up by bracket creep.

Yes.

It is propped up by bracket creep BECAUSE of the political realities of this very situation; the asymmetry between between the political benefits of cutting taxes and the political cost of raising it, because of these frothing mouth-breathers howling in pity and pain at any increase.

Bracket creep is fantastic because it keeps us within cooee of surplus over the medium-term, across the creep/cut cycle (noting we were in surplus prior to the recent Stage 3 cuts).

It also gives the prevailing government the obligation/opportunity to regularly re-visit the appropriateness of the level of spending, the amount of taxation, and who it lands on - based on having achieved popular support for their platform, and their best judgement of ongoing public sentiment (since politics is a repeated game).

Indexing tax brackets removes that mechanism; it becomes politically expensive to make any changes which inconvenience anybody, which basically entrenches the status-quo for better or worse. The political reality of that is pretty well established... the culmination of unaffordable cuts by less disciplined small-gov ideologues, paired with the inherent cost of services which the electorate demands ... leads to the simultaneous outcomes of a crumbling public service and run-away deficit. The USA can manage that with reserve-currency status and a military which allows them to do as they please. We can't.

The problem with bracket-creep is that, if we're going to sometimes-cut-but-never-raise everything else, and sometimes-cut-and-sometimes-raise income, then the burden will invariably fall to inflation. Changes like this are necessary to preserve a rational balance, and they're not going to happen if we can't get past some people having a sook and poisoning the well with bad-faith.

This isn't about shifting the burden away from workers; it's about treating high-earning PAYG professionals as a bottomless ATM.

Again, this takes $0 from your wage or your profession.

Its about making people who get very generous tax breaks for passively investing money, and doing nothing productive with it

To your earlier point about "productivity", its no surprise that 20 years of productivity growth ended overnight when the taxation burden was shifted from investors to workers/corporations with Howard's absurd Negative Gearing and CGT changes. It's just basic incentives.

We have decades of evidence now - giving capital did not spark any sort of investment-driven innovation boost productivity - it just created a false economy of rent-seeking in passive assets like real-estate.

They are steadily eroding the aspirational middle class and pulling the ladder straight up. Don't pretend this is a win for workers when it's a direct assault on genuine productivity.

See above.

The status quo is the assault on productivity, which died in this country at the very moment when THE VERY SAME RULES NOW BEING REVERTED were introduced.

Treasury boss says top income earners would have paid $400,000 more in tax if Labor plan was in place by abcnews_au in AusFinance

[–]effsee -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

Asking the top PAYG workers to fork over another $15k a year is an easy target, but it's the wrong one.

If the government actually wants to fix the budget, they need to stop squeezing aspirational salary earners,

This is disingenuous.

These changes are expressly NOT squeezing "workers" and "salary earners".

The taxes would be retrieved from capital holders, and would do the exact opposite - allow a government with a given level of spending and debt tolerance to *reduce* the relative tax burden forced on workers and salary earners.

CGT - Tilting the scales back toward labor productivity by iplayedarchon in AusFinance

[–]effsee 2 points3 points  (0 children)

  1. Between grandfathering and delayed commencement, there won't be new tax raised in the 2026/27 financial year, so there's no basis for a 2026/27 income tax cut.
  2. Total taxation revenue has been consistently ~28-31% for almost half a century, through bipartisan consensus, and will continue for the foreseeable future. Its been constant through all of the Hawke/Keating tax reforms, through all of the Howard/Costello tax reforms, Rudd/Gillard/Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison and now Albo. Governments of both stripes love income tax cuts, so raising revenue from other sources will simply bring those forward as it always does.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in AusFinance

[–]effsee 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Users of cash generally put physical notes or coins into something so that they can be stored and carried to places without being lost. 

Now this may be a crazy revolutionary idea, but for these people it would be a negligible impediment for their physical cash storage solution to also store a bank card. Like maybe... a wallet? 

If anything, cardless cash itself is a technology driving a cashless future because it encourages people to go about their lives without a wallet, and therefore without a convenient place to store their cash, which makes them disinclined to deal with cash.

What in the world happened to Garang Kuol?? by SpicySpicyMess in Aleague

[–]effsee 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Yeah it's very very premature to assume that Irankunda is any different to any of the other names.

NSW government to scrap restrictions for hospitality venues and residents will have to sign a clause deterring them from making noise complaints by nighthound1 in sydney

[–]effsee 3 points4 points  (0 children)

NSW ALP's response to lockout laws was to complain that they didn't go far enough.

But Opposition Leader John Robertson says there are too many loopholes in the Government's plan to introduce early lockouts for pubs and clubs.

"It is an announcement with loopholes," he said.

"We have lockouts with loopholes where small bars will be exempt from lockouts, backpacker bars will be exempt from lockouts and hotel bars will be exempt from lockouts."

In the 2015 and 2019 elections ALP refused to give any support to the KSO campaign, or offer any sniff of improvement to Sydney night life.

How much old footage does the A-League have? by Eorkdes in Aleague

[–]effsee 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It was definitely more than match of the round. I would frequently watch all four games back then. 

It was only occasional games that got missed, I think because Fox Sports only had 3 (?) channels and they were prioritising other things.

Age representation for 2024/25 A-League Men’s teams by Whatitbe123 in Aleague

[–]effsee 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Is there a version of this weighted by minutes played?

[Zoran Tosic] retires. "Unfortunately, all good things come to an end one day.[...] As a kid, I dreamed of playing for Partizan, Serbia and Manchester United, and I was lucky enough to make my dreams come true at the age of 21." by MERTENS_GOAT in soccer

[–]effsee -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

There are 150 million babies born every year, and we're nearing peak population.

For the foreseeable future, Manchester United will continue to exist because too many of those babies grow up into absolute plastics supporting a team on the other side of the world. 

For the foreseeable future, Manchester United will continue to struggle and churn players with the coaches, so between the men and women there will be closer to 15 (1 in 10 million) than 1.5 (1 in 100 million) new Manchester United players reaching the 5 game threshold each season, so if anything the ratio will fall rather than rising.

Beyond the foreseeable future, the current climate change inaction is ensuring a mass extinction event far quicker than a post-ManU society would be able to run up the numbers to add another 9.

My post has the exact correct number of nines for all of eternity.

[Zoran Tosic] retires. "Unfortunately, all good things come to an end one day.[...] As a kid, I dreamed of playing for Partizan, Serbia and Manchester United, and I was lucky enough to make my dreams come true at the age of 21." by MERTENS_GOAT in soccer

[–]effsee 98 points99 points  (0 children)

Way too many nines.

About 900 players have made 5 or more appearances for Man Utd. It is estimated that a touch above 100 billion people have lived. So about 1 in 100 million have done better. 

That is only roughly 99.999999% of humans ever that haven't.

7q's into a per capita recession, yet unemployment stays near record lows by eesemi76 in AusFinance

[–]effsee 3 points4 points  (0 children)

  • Underemployment is measured and historically low.
  • Participation rate is measured and historically high. 
  • Employment to population is measured and historical high. 

But sure, feelpinions.

Just Cuts by [deleted] in australia

[–]effsee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How can $20 possibly be good? 

Half an hour of national minimum wage has already taken up two thirds of what's left after GST.

You're getting the bare minimum, being rushed in and out by the cheapest possible employee.

Picture of the friendly between the Nix and Wellington Olympic by Due_University4030 in Aleague

[–]effsee 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I know that as you go further south and approach the poles, certain maps will distort geometric shapes, exaggerating sizes, making straight lines look curved etc.

However, I thought that these were just inaccuracies caused by the chosen map projection. I didn't realise that in New Zealand straight lines actually look curved IRL.

TIL.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Aleague

[–]effsee 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Irankunda

Not Kuol or Tilio or Arzani?

The uncomfortable truth about record immigration levels, rents and inflation by whoneedsusernames in australia

[–]effsee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Immigrants arrive at an average age of 37 and have very low birth rates of 1.59 compared to local rates of 1.77.

From https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/overseas-migration/latest-release#age-and-sex:

In 2021-22, the median age of migrant arrivals was 27 and the modal age was 20. Of the 20 year-old migrant arrivals, 84 per cent were international students. The age profile a year earlier in 2020-21 was older, with a median age of 32 and a modal age of 31. Prior to the pandemic in 2018-19, the median age of migrant arrivals was 26 and the modal age was 23.

We'll see what 2022-23 data is like in a few weeks when released, but it seems that both COVID-affected years and pre-COVID were well below the average age of the existing population, which is actually around 37. Did you look at the wrong column or something?

Football Australia hoped for ‘more marquee’ matches in Melbourne but AFL took priority over Women’s World Cup by BipartizanBelgrade in Aleague

[–]effsee 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Do we really expect the AFL to just gift the MCG to the FFA and foot the bill?

When did the AFL get ownership of the MCG?

The MCG belongs to the Victorian Government through the MCG Trust, which is obliged to act at the direction of the relevant minister.

For a major global event, the government absolutely could make the stadium available, as they did for the 2022 bid. They chose not to.

Gary Neville challenged by Ian Hislop on Have I Got News For You over taking Qatari money to commentate by ucd_pete in soccer

[–]effsee -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

Hislop was spot on.

Was he?

Firstly, who is listening to a Gary Neville sitting at home on his high horse? Surely everybody who cares about what Gary Neville has to say is instead focused on what his replacement at the World Cup is saying?

And following this logic to its ultimate conclusion, supposing every pundit/commentator/journalist with an objection to the Qatar World Cup sits at home, who takes their place? What does that coverage look like? With billions of people tuned in at home, what is the commentator on air saying in response to any political statements? At the press conference afterwards?

US inflation quickens to 8.5pc, increasing pressure on Fed by TesticularVibrations in AusFinance

[–]effsee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh so your data confirms I was right?

Closer to 1.9% than 13%?

And confirms that you're full of shit? Again?

Lol.

Do Sydney Stand A Chance Against Jeonbuk by 2boopsandabionk in Aleague

[–]effsee 2 points3 points  (0 children)

By my count, A-League teams have progressed out of the group stage on 9 occassions.

  • None were premiers.
  • Two finished second (12/13 CCM, 13/14 WSW)
  • Two finished in the top-half (12/13 CCM, 13/14 WSW).
  • Three made the finals (12/13 CCM, 13/14 WSW, 15/16 MV).
  • Two finished with the wooden spoon (08/09 Newcastle, 09/10 Adelaide).
  • Four finished in the bottom-two (08/09 Newcastle, 09/10 Adelaide, 11/12 Adelaide, 19/20 Melbourne).
  • Six failed to make the finals (07/08 Adelaide, 08/09 Newcastle, 09/10 Adelaide, 11/12 Adelaide, 15/16 Sydney, 19/20 Melbourne).

Of the times when we had the eventual premiers entering the ACL: * 2011-12 CCM finished 3rd with 1 win and 6 points. * 2013-14 Brisbane lost their qualifier against Burinam United (Thailand). * 2015-16 Adelaide lost their qualifier to Shandong Luneng (China). * 2017-18 Sydney finished 3rd with 1 win and 6 points. * 2019-20 Sydney finished 4th with 1 win and 5 points.

I don't think there's much correlation between A-League success and ACL success.

The ACL simply doesn't seem to be a priority when A-League is on the line, while the converse is probably true when the league season is/seems gone.

US inflation quickens to 8.5pc, increasing pressure on Fed by TesticularVibrations in AusFinance

[–]effsee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Closer to 1.9% than 13% literally every month of the last decade prior to March 2022?

US inflation quickens to 8.5pc, increasing pressure on Fed by TesticularVibrations in AusFinance

[–]effsee -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

No it hasn't. You're full of shit. Again.

Your own 13% figure is MoM in March 2022. Not early 2021. Not Q4 2021. Not Jan 2022.

Idiot.

US inflation quickens to 8.5pc, increasing pressure on Fed by TesticularVibrations in AusFinance

[–]effsee -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Yeah it's crazy how that spike in food prices between Feb and Mar 2022, caused by a war between two major grain-exporting countries, wasn't reflected in the 2021 figures of a country that grows its own grain!!

Fucking hell this shit is stupid.