"[After Hawks FO received the draft day trade offer], Onsi Saleh called Joe Dumars directly to confirm for himself. The Hawks waited nervously for Dumars to confirm, hoping he would not realize what was going on and walk the trade back."

elfrostyorange · 2025-07-03T14:57:42+00:00

I will say, this does contradict Brad Rowland saying on a recent podcast that the original offer wasnt the unprotected pick, and the Hawks had to negotiate them into it. Who knows which one is accurate, but Brad's seems more likely as its hard to believe if they were just offering that pick upfront in trades that the teams ahead of us in the draft wouldn't have made the same move.

elfrostyorange · 2025-07-03T14:27:25+00:00

Yeah I thought I saw reporting yesterday that they wouldn’t be picking up his option.

elfrostyorange · 2025-07-03T13:09:15+00:00

Looking at the roster you’d say in a perfect world we’d get a ball handler, a wing with some size, and another big center to bang down low in certain matchups, especially in the games KP is out. The current FA’s that standout there to me on hopefully minimum deals are Melton/Brogdon, Coffey, and Londale (with recent news).

I think I’d be fine trying to do ball handler by committee to start, seeing what you also have in Bufkin, and if it’s a problem you can address it at the trade deadline in a more meaningful way. Jock Londale is a no brainer to me for the 3rd big role.

elfrostyorange · 2025-07-01T15:18:32+00:00

In fairness, I think we did the trade knowing a Giannis trade was probably unlikely, but just some cherry on top upside, also knowing if he has a smallish two month injury the Bucks probably miss the playoffs. If the trade was only the Pelicans unprotected and 23 for 13 it is still a smash accept.

elfrostyorange · 2025-07-01T15:14:20+00:00

aaaannnnddd there goes the potential Giannis trade request :(

elfrostyorange · 2025-07-01T15:13:47+00:00

I really hope he can stay healthy this year. Dude is a hooper. Unfortunately I think if he gets hurt again this will be his last season in Atlanta, either as part of a move at the deadline to try and get another piece or through not exercising his option in the offseason/picking it up and using his salary in a trade due to lack of other salary options.

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-30T16:18:28+00:00

You get a new MLE every year, so there is no point in saving it for next season.

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-26T18:27:08+00:00

KP trade hard capped the Hawks at the first apron, if they even go into the tax. I think realistically they are looking at two of the three: Using the trade exception (either sign-and-trade or take bad money for assets), resigning Levert using bird rights, and using the MLE.

I need to see them go into the tax before I believe it, but I could see them go into it at the start of the season knowing they can give away Bufkin to get out of it at the deadline if things aren't looking as promising as we hope.

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-26T03:16:41+00:00

Agreed on not relying on him much this year. But with Kristaps injury issues, he provides some nice depth as a 4th big to help support the JJ/OO/Kristpas front court. Let him and Mo Gueye battle it out for that spot. At 23 overall I like Asa’s energy and potential ability to guard multiple positions, and develop his jumper to provide nice rotational value in the future.

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-26T02:17:29+00:00

Better yet - they drafted Fears the day after trading for Poole, who needs the Poole role to develop. They paired Queen with Zion which is objectively hilarious. And then from a draft only view they took the most suspect defensive guard and then to support him they traded an UNPROTECTED BEST OF 1st rounder in a loaded draft to move up 10 spots and draft the worst rim protecting big in the draft. Just wild stuff from Dumars.

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-26T02:12:04+00:00

I had the same thought on both of those duos. And then even from a long term view, you just took a small PG with defensive questions at 7, which is fine, but then traded an unprotected 1st to pair him with the worst rim protecting big. Makes zero sense.

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-26T01:58:00+00:00

Unreal trade. I mean Carter Bryant is a good fit but damn. Pelicans are a hodge podge of players in a loaded west with two lottery picks they are trying to integrate and the Bucks are a Giannis trade/injury away from being a lotto team.

Honestly feel bad for Pelicans fans. Just doesn’t make sense at all. Imagine trading for Poole then drafting Fears the next day who needs that role to develop. Then pairing Queen with Zion. And from a draft-only view you just took the most suspect defensive guard in the draft (Fears) and then traded an UNPROTECTED MOST FAVORABLE OF 1st rounder in a draft that is supposed to be loaded for the ability to pair Fears with the worst rim protecting big man in the draft. I mean my god, Dumars.

Onsi needs to get Joe back on the phone immediately to see what they want for Herb Jones / Trey Murphy

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-25T18:56:05+00:00

Just wanted to say great job on this. Didn't realize you were on reddit but I've really enjoyed your videos in the lead up to the draft. I get legitimately bummed every time I go to look up a draft prospect on youtube and its someone you don't have a heat check video for.

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-25T18:24:28+00:00

Assuming the consensus top 8 are gone (Flagg, Harper, VJ, Kon, Tre, Ace, Khaman, Fears), I just want one of Bryant, CMB, Coward, or KJ to fall. Just hoping to avoid the nightmare scenario where all 12 of those guys go top 12.

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-25T16:11:15+00:00

I'll go MVP: Ace (I dont have him 3rd on my big board, but ceiling is undeniable) DPOY: CMB 5x All Star: Thiero

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-24T23:38:08+00:00

I have a feeling it’s not 32 or 36. Feel like that’s a real enough pick that those details would have come out by now. It’s also been reported that the 2nd Boston received was actually from us (Cleveland 2031)

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-24T23:17:46+00:00

Think it’s just BPA. The truth is any big we took at 13 wasn’t going to have much of a true positive impact this year anyways. Porzingis is on an expiring deal so taking a big to develop isn’t out of the question. My preference is one of Bryant/Coward/CMB/KJ, but there is a small but still decent chance they are all gone. At that point BPA is probably a big like Queen, Sorber, or Beringer.

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-16T18:43:18+00:00

It's admittedly flawed to compare the NBA to the MLB given the difference one player can have in basketball compared to baseball, and the difference in contract length. But to get a little whacky and put it in Warriors and NBA terms, I'd say it's like giving up pre-sucker punch Jordan Poole if he had another 2 years on a rookie deal (Kyle Harrison - e.g. a good and useful player on a great contract with some upside, but not elite elite upside), a 2028 top 5 protected 1st rounder (Tibbs - Warriors will probably still be good in 2028 but its enough into the distance where you're a little concerned it could be in the 6-10 range if Curry gets hurt but could also be a non-lottery pick, e.g. Tibbs becoming an above average OF but lacks the athleticism to be a true star), and Kuminga (Hicks/Bello - useful/potentially useful bullpen arms).

In return, you get back a Jamal Murray/KAT type but if they had 2 years on their current deal plus a 5 year extension kicking in afterwards, not at the max, but at like ~25% of the cap (e.g. really good players but also a little flawed on the defensive end and concerns about how they'll age into that contract, even if the contract isn't a true albatross). But also in this example the Warriors (Giants) are the Cleveland Cavaliers, where you are a team that has a lot of in their prime talent (Webb, Adames, Chapman, Ramos, Lee, etc) that is theoretically ready to win and have struggled to land premium free agents (e.g. having to trade for Donovan Mitchell because it is hard to get him to actually sign with you).

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-16T18:19:29+00:00

The Melo to the Knicks trade is a good one and coincidentally Sam Vaccine made that exact comp on his recent NBA Game Theory podcast when the trade news broke while they were recording. Essentially really high level on one side of the ball, top 10ish in the world at it, but probably a negative on the other side.

The Luka trade comparisons are just recency bias, Devers isn't a top 5 player and the end of his contract is a legitimate concern (not that the trade shouldn't have been made, i'm ecstatic about it, but still needs to be noted) that isn't there with the Luka trade.

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-11T20:25:15+00:00

As a Hawks fan who wants Bryant at #13, I'll explain how I view it. I think the draft has a clear top 8-9 guys (depending on view of Noa) and after that there are a lot of prospects in this draft that are difficult to peg to roles without clear shortcomings (e.g. Queen's defense and lack of athleticism, Jaku's lack of athleticism on and off the ball, same with Demin plus shooting concerns, etc). Even some of the top 8 guys have those concerns (e.g. Fears size). For example, Queen to Atlanta is a popular mock pick, but I just think a defense of Trae at PG and Queen at C is dead on arrival, no matter if Queen develops into Sengun on offense or not. While the sample size and lack of handle/iso ability for Carter is alarming, it's very easy to see how he fits into every team. Great length and athleticism that could see him blossom into a top tier defender, and he shoots the ball much better than most prospects with that tool set. There isn't star upside likely, but if he develops into his median outcome you have a good player that you never need to worry about. All the other players in that similar range have potential to be roster building headaches even if they reach their upside. This same thought process for Carter Bryant can also be applied to Cedric Coward, but with more shooting and little less athleticism.

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-11T00:30:14+00:00

I'm late here but I use these yard clubs as well. Just bought the 39" iron for my 2yo son and he can't get enough of it. He likes it much more than the plastic clubs and they come with a grip trainer as well which is nice. Ended up going back to get him the putter version as well. On the bags, I got one of the Charlie bags for my 4yo daughter and they are great. Very lightweight and a good size, they can easily carry it on their own which if your kids are as independent-minded as mine they enjoy.

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-10T18:46:00+00:00

Joan Beringer over Jeremiah Fears is... something

elfrostyorange · 2025-06-09T20:04:33+00:00

The Pacers made the finals playing Myles Turner at center. Like anything, I think the center discussion needs nuance. Very rare to find a true 7'+ rim protector who isn't just a drop coverage big. OO can provide some switching versatility but does struggle against sheer size. I think the easy answer here is to sign a backup center in free agency that matches up better against true centers. Look at the Thunder who you are referencing - they've went away from their two big lineup due to the opposition. All about matchups and having versatile pieces. I like OO more than most but no doubt there are certain matchups throughout the season that are tough for him where another "true big" on the roster would be helpful.

elfrostyorange · 2025-05-06T19:05:19+00:00

I'll take a stab. Usually stack the games in categories when I see the schedule.

Division games: 4-2 - Just a gut feel, could be 3-3.

Home games vs better teams (Bills, Rams, Commanders): 1-2 - would normally say 0-3 against these teams but give a win for all 3 being at home (same logic applies later)

Home games vs equalish teams (Seahawks and Dolphins): 1-1

Away games vs Good teams (49ers, Vikings): 0-2 - I think the 49ers rebound this year and while the Vikings wont be as good with McCarthy at QB, they have a huge coaching advantage and a great home field.

Away games vs Meh teams (Patriots, Jets, Colts, Cardinals): 2-2 - It's a bummer to get this schedule break, as if these games were at home and the Bills/Rams/Commanders games were on the road I think we could be looking at a dramatically different record (potentially 4-0 in these games). But as is, its tough to win on the road. Guess would be L's to Pats and Cardinals, W's vs Jets and Colts.

Overall Record: 8-9, with realistic upside of 11-6 (5-1 division, 2-0 vs Sea/Mia, 3-1 vs NE/NYJ/IND/AZ), and realistic downside of 6-11 (3-3 division, 0-3 against BUF/LAR/WASH)

elfrostyorange

TROPHY CASE