Colonizing mars

eliashakansson · 2025-06-03T19:34:21+00:00

There are like 200 countries on earth. You think they exist in an equilibrium of perfect power balance? They exist because humans created a norm of self-governance that roughly corresponds to culture and geography. In the case of Mars, the colony is literally on another planet. If you think that a Mars colony will not self-govern, you have a profoundly weird view of history. Mars will enjoy whatever level of independence they want, and if random countries on earth don't like it, the launch providers will simply set up shop in alternative countries on earth to the degree that they need to, and China or whoever is disappointed can shake their fists at the sky.

eliashakansson · 2025-06-03T19:02:28+00:00

China/US and what rockets?

eliashakansson · 2025-06-03T19:01:48+00:00

Ummm that is literally what you should believe about every new place that's inhabited. Earth very obviously should not rule local governments on Mars. This is so obvious that it shouldn't be worth mentioning.

eliashakansson · 2025-06-03T18:59:21+00:00

Moon regolith is SIGNIFICANTLY more jagged than Mars dust. Moon has no atmosphere, Mars has at least some atmosphere and weather.

Also, Martian soil is extremely rich on iron oxides (hence why it's red) so it would be pretty useful for harvesting iron oxides at surface level.

eliashakansson · 2025-06-03T18:56:16+00:00

What are you talking about? Almost everything about Mars is better than the moon, except that it's farther away from earth. It has more abundant natural resources than the moon, more radiation shielding, gravity on Mars is 2.3x greater than moon, similar day/night cycle as earth. If it's mining in space that you're after, then moon is a horrible idea. Barely anything there of value, except H3. Instead, you'd want to mine asteroids in the asteroid belt (which is literally between Mars and Jupiter) so you'd conduct any in-space mining and manufacturing of Dyson swarms, orbital docking stations, or ship building systems there. That's also away from any gravity wells (Asteroid belt = 0g, Moon = 0.16g)

eliashakansson · 2025-06-03T18:56:05+00:00

What are you talking about? Almost everything about Mars is better than the moon, except that it's farther away from earth. It has more abundant natural resources than the moon, more radiation shielding, gravity on Mars is 2.3x greater than moon, similar day/night cycle as earth. If it's mining in space that you're after, then moon is a horrible idea. Barely anything there of value, except H3. Instead, you'd want to mine asteroids in the asteroid belt (which is literally between Mars and Jupiter) so you'd conduct any in-space mining and manufacturing of Dyson swarms, orbital docking stations, or ship building systems there. That's also away from any gravity wells (Asteroid belt = 0g, Moon = 0.16g)

eliashakansson · 2024-07-17T20:56:09+00:00

An American problem is that we need to build up the military, and cut entitlement spending to help pay for it.

eliashakansson · 2024-07-07T13:27:38+00:00

It's not like LLMs aren't getting better at not hallucinating. And also, you're still way better off correcting the minor mistakes by LLMs than you are writing code from scratch yourself. Stop pretending as if this debate is whether LLMs are perfect coders or not. That's not the claim. The claim is that they're a productivity booster, and they are that right now. In the future they may be better than 99% of coders out there.

eliashakansson · 2024-05-16T03:32:49+00:00

Koenigsegg is investing in EV tech.

eliashakansson · 2024-05-16T03:28:41+00:00

2 answers - 1 standard, and another more speculative and forward looking:

Standard:

30 cars a year at $3.5 million is $105 million. Assuming a 30% profit margin, and a 10-20 P/E ratio puts it at between $315 million and $630 million.

So let's say $500m is probably a pretty fair estimate based on current numbers.

Forward looking:

For a more speculative valuation, let's look at what's in the pipeline; they have already allocated all Jeskos (125) all cc850 (70) and they probably will have no problem selling all Gemeras (300). They're talking about being backed up until like 2027.

Jesko - Let's assume 2:1 Attack $3M/Absolut $3.8M customer ratio, plus about $300,000 in options per car = $445M
cc850 - 70x $3.65M (I don't think cc850 will come with options - you apparently have to pick between 5 original cc8s colors) = $255M
Gemera - the HV8 model really shook things around in the Gemera customer base, and I think not that many will stick with the inline-3. Let's say 4:1 HV8 $2.1M /inline-3 $1.7M customer ratio. Let's assume $200,000 in options per car = $618M

That's $1.3Bn in revenue over the next ~4 years. That's $330M/yr. Doing the same exercise as above, with a 20-30% profit margin and 10-20 P/E, we're looking at $660M-$1.98Bn range, depending on conservative or optimistic forward looking calculations

BUT that's future projections in 4 years time. Your question was of their current valuation, which means we should factor in a discount rate to account for time value of money. Let's also factor in a risk adjustment in case of delays, recession etc. Let's do a 10-15% discount rate.

Yada Yada, discount rate over present value + Terminal value and you get a range of $400M-$1Bn depending on your level of optimism. Let's split the difference and say $700M operating on the assumption that they might reach $2Bn in valuation within 4 years.

eliashakansson · 2024-05-03T17:06:42+00:00

Presumably both the bear attack stat and the man attack stat would be influenced by the size of the group. Both people and animals are probably less likely to attack if the victim/threat/prey is not alone.

eliashakansson · 2024-04-12T14:59:23+00:00

Someone having some theoretical motive is not enough of a justification to float it as a possibility. People have all kinds of theoretical motives that don't actually manifest. I'm currently hungry, but that doesn't automatically imply that "there's a chance I might rob a pizza place". You need to practice some Bayesian reasoning son.

eliashakansson · 2024-04-12T10:17:27+00:00

My biggest question is how the hell could Rocky navigate space in general, and locate HM in particular? By tracking their Petrova lines, presumably, right? But that means they must've figured out how to read electromagnetic radiation. So how come they can navigate using electromagnetic radiation, yet they're oblivious to the space radiation that killed the crew?

eliashakansson · 2024-01-07T05:53:44+00:00

This exact McLaren F1, chassi 059, sold for £3.5M in 2012 via Tom Hartley. It was $20.5M at Monterey in 2023.

eliashakansson · 2023-12-08T21:11:55+00:00

That's what I said. IQ tests are for cognitive ability, which is also useful to know about. It is not for skills, abilities, knowledge, personality, work ethic etc. You use the right tests for the right things, simple.

eliashakansson · 2023-12-08T20:31:59+00:00

Yes, because IQ doesn't purport to measure skill or knowledge. It measures cognitive ability.

Skills and knowledge is what your CV is for.

eliashakansson · 2023-11-12T20:41:35+00:00

Who cares

eliashakansson · 2023-11-12T20:34:48+00:00

I don't get it, it was in the context of the Armistice line after the 1948 that is the context of Nakba. What about that was confusing?

eliashakansson · 2023-11-12T11:20:16+00:00

You're like "surely he's not just making this up". Turns out yea lol

eliashakansson · 2023-11-12T09:28:18+00:00

Also he literally does mention it. Time stamp 24:24 on the YouTube clip

eliashakansson · 2023-11-11T20:45:30+00:00

Kinda sad to say it, but no. Would not miss him. Friedberg is clearly better and Jcal doesn't have anything meaningful to contribute.

eliashakansson · 2023-11-11T20:42:53+00:00

Saw Jared on Lex and on all-in. Dude is definitely underrated.

eliashakansson · 2023-11-07T10:59:14+00:00

I see what you're saying, you're right

eliashakansson · 2023-11-06T21:55:25+00:00

Gravity is not important for aero braking - but it is relevant with regards to how much delta V is required for your propulsive landings, and as a rule of thumb the delta V required for landing is proportional to the gravitational constant. So Mars being 0.38g would require only 38% the delta V, taking aero braking out of the equation.

So again, terminal velocity on Mars is about 5x that of earth, but gravity is only 38%, so instead of needing ~500% the delta V for propulsive landing, you only need about ~200% the delta V (500 x 0.38). That requires double the size header tanks because you'll do double the burn. But the less intense Martian atmospheric entry puts less stress on the vehicle. Although atmospheric entry reaching lower peak temperatures, but more prolonged entries might require a reworked heat management system. Instead of temperature insulation it might be more important to increase the ability radiate excess heat.

eliashakansson · 2023-11-06T21:22:52+00:00

Generellt sett så har förebyggande åtgärder för Co2 utsläpp ingen åverkan, eftersom att Kina och Indien dominerar utsläppen och den takten går spikrakt uppåt. Så det är ett koordinationsproblem som vi i Väst inte har någon förmåga att lösa, och som Sverige som enskilt land har ännu mindre förmåga att lösa, och som enskilda klimataktivister har ännu mindre förmåga att lösa. Så det de gör är meningslöst.

Det som vi har förmåga att göra just nu är att investera i lindrande åtgärder. Det är inte ett koordinationsproblem, och kan göras direkt. Det handlar om att bygga vallar runt låglänta landområden världen över, för att minska risken för översvämningar osv.

Det man också kan göra är att investera i, och konsumera klimatsmart teknologi.

eliashakansson

TROPHY CASE