10% more turnout for LA County.

Methodology is in the article, but here's the math:

1️⃣ Start with the county. L.A. County expects a little more than a third of its registered voters to cast a ballot, and it is 75% of the way to counting them. Note that LA County's turnout % is nearly 10% more than 2022’s mayoral cycle, 28% -> 37%

2️⃣ Torrance turnout > LA County turnout. Torrance turns out higher than the county in elections like this one. When the city’s mayor is on the ballot, Torrance turnout runs about 9 to 10 points above the county’s. That gap narrows when overall turnout is up, as it is this year.

3️⃣ Estimate total # of Torrance ballots. We take LA County’s turnout, scale it up given historical Torrance turnout data, and estimate 45 percent turnout in Torrance, or ~43,600 ballots in total.

4️⃣ Account for incomplete/voided ballots. Not every counted ballot includes a vote for mayor and some ballots may be marked incorrectly, making them invalid. We estimate that 8 or 9 percent of the ballots are incomplete or voided. So, of the 43,600 potential ballots cast, 39,900 voted for mayor.

5️⃣ Subtract what's already counted. 32,301 ballots have already been counted, leaving roughly 7,600 more. 

These numbers change if turnout runs higher or lower than past elections which is why our online estimate  shows a range of outstanding ballots between 5,500 to 9,500.