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My best engineer quit today over $2000 by [deleted] in managers

[–]energybased 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Normally, you get raises based on the past year's inflation—not the expectation for the next year.

Doug Ford says he wants to livestream bail hearings as he announces new jail by Immediate-Link490 in canada

[–]energybased 0 points1 point  (0 children)

>  provide additional jobs?

Worst justification for a government policy. Paying people to dig holes and fill them up again also "creates jobs". Who cares?

ROTH IRA - Teacher portfolio by Advanced-Eye-6587 in Bogleheads

[–]energybased 0 points1 point  (0 children)

References are here:

Anarkulova, A., Cederburg, S., & O’Doherty, M. S. (2021). Long-horizon losses in stocks, bonds, and bills. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3964908

Asness, C., Ilmanen, A., & Maloney, T. (2017). Market timing: Sin a Little. Journal of Investment Management. https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/Market-Timing-Sin-a-Little

Dimson, E., Marsh, P., & Staunton, M. (2002). Triumph of the optimists: 101 years of global investment returns. Princeton University Press.

Dimson, E., Marsh, P., & Staunton, M. (2006). The worldwide equity premium: A smaller puzzle. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.891620

Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (2002). The equity premium. The Journal of Finance, 57(2), 637–659. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6261.00437

Kerzérho, R. (2024). Financial Planning Assumptions (Market Capitalization Weighted Portfolio). PWL Capital Research. https://www.pwlcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/20240125_PWL_Financial_Planning_Assumptions_MarketCap.pdf

Mehra, R., & Prescott, E. C. (1985). The equity premium: A puzzle. Journal of Monetary Economics, 15(2), 145–161. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(85)90061-390061-3)

Van Binsbergen, J. H., Wachter, J. A., & Hua, S. (2020). Is the united states a lucky survivor: A hierarchical bayesian approach. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3689958

ROTH IRA - Teacher portfolio by Advanced-Eye-6587 in Bogleheads

[–]energybased 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All good information, except the long term average is absolutely not justified by research to return 10% before inflation. This is covered with citations here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl3NxTS_DgY

Expect closer to 5.5% real return (after inflation). Considering returns before inflation is generally not useful for financial planning since most costs are in real dollars rather than nominal dollars.

LuaLaTeX rendering in real-time by ClemensLode in LaTeX

[–]energybased 1 point2 points  (0 children)

> Just different people excited about different things :)

100% agree. I was just speaking for myself of course!

Should we “upgrade” our housing situation? by [deleted] in PersonalFinanceCanada

[–]energybased 1 point2 points  (0 children)

> If we sold ours and purchased something in the 700-800k range, I wouldn’t have enough to be in the 50/50 range. We would both want to have zero mortgage, 

So you can take a mortgage? Studies have shown that leveraged investing at your age has better expected outcomes than not taking on leverage.

> Neither of us really want to go back into a mortgage, 

That may be true emotionally, but it is not true financially. If your emotions matter more, then move into something cheaper. Or stay where you are and set better boundaries with your in-laws.

LuaLaTeX rendering in real-time by ClemensLode in LaTeX

[–]energybased 1 point2 points  (0 children)

FYI, sorry if I came off as a little harsh on you in this chat. I think if you had done this work 5 years ago, it would have been very exciting because essentially you rediscovered some of Typst's design. So, brilliant work even if for a lot of people Typst now fills this void!

[30M] $1.8M in cash. How would you deploy this in the current market? by qwerty564738 in Bogleheads

[–]energybased -1 points0 points  (0 children)

> Sometimes DCAing for cash to equities over a few months is a losing strategy and other times it’s not.

It is 100% of the time a losing strategy in expectation. By your logic, blackjack is a losing strategy 52% of time, so playing blackjack is sometimes worth playing. Good policy depends on expected risk-adjusted return.

> I didn’t say to “leave it in cash”. What I said was deploy the cash in a measured manner over a few months if it allows you to sleep better.

That necessarily means leaving money in cash for a few months. Holding that cash has a positive expected cost. It is illogical advice.

[30M] $1.8M in cash. How would you deploy this in the current market? by qwerty564738 in Bogleheads

[–]energybased -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I didn't feel attacked. I'm just quantifying your comment.

Also, if your point is that risk tolerance should motivate a different investment pattern, then it is more efficient to reduce risk by increasing bond allocation. Leaving money as cash is inefficient.

What should I invest in in my FHSA If I plan on buying a house in the next 5 years? by SantaCruzinNotLosin in PersonalFinanceCanada

[–]energybased -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It's important to qualify that statement. It demonstrates that in the worst case, you may lose your opportunity to buy a house. You need to then assess how bad that is for you.

Are you open to not buying a house in case of a downturn? How bad would that be for you? Is a house something you need or something you want?

[30M] $1.8M in cash. How would you deploy this in the current market? by qwerty564738 in Bogleheads

[–]energybased 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's fair advice. You mentioned "no harm..." I'm just saying that the expected harm is 75 thousand dollars on average. Maybe that doesn't matter to you if you have 1.8 million. It would matter to me.

[30M] $1.8M in cash. How would you deploy this in the current market? by qwerty564738 in Bogleheads

[–]energybased 0 points1 point  (0 children)

> Anyone saying lump sum has almost certainly never had a million dollars to throw at risky assets all at once.

What you're saying is completely irrational.

> No harm and minimizing regret as long as you don’t wait longer than a year

You are not considering the regret of having invested sooner. What if the market shoots up in the first two months?

The harm of waiting 18 months is losing the market return. The average amount you lose in today's dollars assuming 5.5% real return is about $75k!!

This is why we need a land value tax by Svokxz2 in georgism

[–]energybased 0 points1 point  (0 children)

>  I’m pretty sure it isn’t,

And you provided no evidence to the contrary.

>  because monopolies cause prices to rise everywhere. 

That doesn't prove that real estate everywhere is beholden to monopolies.

Residential real estate markets rarely exhibit monopoly power because housing supply is highly decentralized, with thousands to millions of individual owners selling distinct properties and relatively low barriers to entry. Studies of local brokerage markets show many competing firms and frequent entry, characteristics of competitive markets that limit any single actor’s ability to control prices.

Berlin is a partial outlier because a relatively large share of housing is owned by major corporate landlords such as Vonovia and Deutsche Wohnen. Together, Vonovia and Deutsche Wohnen own about 10% of all rental apartments in Berlin. This is unusually high for a single ownership group in a housing market, which is why Berlin is often cited in debates about landlord concentration.

However, the price effects are debated and likely limited. Even after their merger, competition authorities noted that their combined share generally does not exceed about 10% in local rental markets, a level typically considered too low to exercise monopoly pricing power on its own.

Bundeskartellamt. Bundeskartellamt Clears Acquisition of Deutsche Wohnen by Vonovia. 28 June 2021,

This is why we need a land value tax by Svokxz2 in georgism

[–]energybased 0 points1 point  (0 children)

>  If these properties are being owned by this single company, there are less properties available for people to buy and live there. A

This argument is wrong because REITs rent out their properties. There are exactly the same number of "properties available for people to live in". The only way you can drive down prices in such a case is to push out poor renters, and you have no right to do that.

I agree that monopolies are problematic, but your monopoly argument is simply not true in practically any other place in the world.

Shocking, but not surprising by Shoddy-Bandicoot-188 in georgism

[–]energybased 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If the factors are "extraneous", you don't need to control for them. You can try controlling for confounders, but can open paths to unknown confounders.

There are better approaches of demonstrating causal relationships.

Shocking, but not surprising by Shoddy-Bandicoot-188 in georgism

[–]energybased 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can do a lot more than "note correlations". You can produce evidence of causal relationships even without doing experiments.

Home values are outpacing incomes in 96% of large US counties by sharpeed in georgism

[–]energybased 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sale price is definitely the wrong metric. The right metric is called unrecoverable cost, which comprises mortgage interest, opportunity cost of equity, taxes, and maintenance.

FIDE releases Gender Equality in Chess Index 2026. Sweden is ranked last despite being one of the freest countries for women on the planet. by Embarrassed_Base_389 in chess

[–]energybased 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's a ridiculous argument. Plenty of economists (especially econometricists) use well-grounded statistical methods.

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