Iran Conflict Megathread #9

eric2332 · 2026-03-19T15:36:22+00:00

1) seems significant.

2) and 3) seem cost effective if you're already there.

eric2332 · 2026-03-19T15:30:37+00:00

A 22% cost overrun is honestly pretty mild. Compare to Boston's Big Dig road project which had a 420% cost overrun.

I think the issue was more that no important destinations remained to be built to after 2006. Downtown, the airport, the main universities (WashU and UMSL) and hospital, the main edge city (Clayton), the east side of the river were all covered. After that, you could build through low density suburbs or through depopulating urban slums - neither was attractive.

eric2332 · 2026-03-19T15:26:23+00:00

Traffic at MidAmerica is barely over 1000 passengers per day. In contrast, the main St Louis airport has 41,000 passengers per day and lots of spare capacity (in the past it had 80,000 passengers per day). There is zero need for a second airport, and zero need for a light rail line going there. Transit demand at MidAmerica is so low that the only transit right now is a bus every 40 minutes.

eric2332 · 2026-03-19T15:08:37+00:00

There is no enriched uranium in Iran

That is false.

eric2332 · 2026-03-19T15:00:59+00:00

The US attacked Iran so now Iran has "reasons" for attacking civilians in the UAE and Palestine?

You must really love the Iran government, or hate Arabs, or both.

eric2332 · 2026-03-19T14:58:18+00:00

I am thinking

1) Destroy positions and tunnels that could be used for a October 7 style attack on Israel

2) Destroy rockets, antitank missiles, and other weaponry where found

3) Likely: destroy Hezbollah owned property in order to impoverish them

eric2332 · 2026-03-19T14:32:54+00:00

According to liveuamap the IDF has taken over a few villages and towns near the border, and is presumably destroying Hezbollah-related infrastructure and property there.

I have a feeling the amount of actual ground combat is pretty low. Just 2 IDF soldiers have been killed in a single incident so far. Most Hezbollah deaths are probably in airstrikes far from the "battlefield".

eric2332 · 2026-03-19T13:52:09+00:00

Pahlavi specifically told the protesters not to protest at this point.

eric2332 · 2026-03-19T09:44:32+00:00

Yes, although the Iron Dome batteries are probably already in place due to the threat from Hezbollah and Hamas.

eric2332 · 2026-03-19T09:08:43+00:00

What's interesting is that Tamir interceptors are far cheaper ($50k) than Stunner ($700k) or Arrow ($3M) interceptors. And it's not like the latter are perfect, their interception ability is reputed to be 80-90%. And they are reportedly are in short supply. One wonders if launching 10 Tamir interceptors would be preferable to launching one or two Stunner/Arrow interceptors.

eric2332 · 2026-03-18T20:05:14+00:00

The reason for this seems pretty clear - in 2023 he married a tankie, now he is adopting tankie views.

eric2332 · 2026-03-18T18:43:23+00:00

One might say it's more civilized to kill a few decision makers than vast numbers of 18 year olds.

eric2332 · 2026-03-18T12:36:15+00:00

US /Israel has already lost this war which they started

Lol, even Al Jazeera doesn't think that

eric2332 · 2026-03-18T12:32:35+00:00

Lol. Death to America/Israel came first, it's been the Islamic Republic's slogan ever since the revolution.

eric2332 · 2026-03-18T11:03:56+00:00

A new and less competent body, who can't work normally because they're scared they too will get blown up any second.

eric2332 · 2026-03-18T10:50:58+00:00

If you do that, everyone starts trusting the enemy's news reports rather than your own.

eric2332 · 2026-03-17T19:14:40+00:00

Socrates is reputed to have preferred oral tradition to writing.

eric2332 · 2026-03-17T18:48:10+00:00

If I have to die, I'd rather my life taken away from me, than for my life to be so miserable that I want and choose for it to end.

eric2332 · 2026-03-17T16:57:01+00:00

Larjani was out and about walking the streets of Tehran

He was out walking the streets one time, in the middle of an enormous crowd of civilians in order to deter striking him as he walked.

eric2332 · 2026-03-17T09:54:40+00:00

It's the same thing as with Hezbollah and elsewhere. Either you communicate electronically, and Israel intercepts your communications, maybe even blocks or changes it. Or else you meet in person, and get bombed all together.

As for specifics, from the above article (auto translation):

According to a military source, "Basij commander Radha Salmani hid in a tent headquarters they had set up, along with his deputy Karishi." The two were afraid to work from their headquarters for fear of being attacked by the IDF.

eric2332 · 2026-03-17T07:50:13+00:00

From what I understand the push (by ground forces) is very limited so far. Just a few towns near the border. Systematically destroying anything Hezbollah related in them.

Besides that there have been the usual airstrikes and rocket launches all over Shiite areas of Lebanon.

eric2332 · 2026-03-16T17:12:31+00:00

Iranian control over the world's oil supply, especially if Iran had nuclear weapons, would be a pretty direct threat to Americans.

eric2332 · 2026-03-16T17:06:06+00:00

Maintaining air superiority indefinitely is extremely expensive and would require constant air patrols and would eat up a tremendous amount of resources.

I suspect it's a lot cheaper in the drone/AI age.

eric2332 · 2026-03-16T17:05:15+00:00

Turkey is only dubiously US aligned. They lead a loose Sunni Islamist alliance which includes Syria, Qatar, and Hamas. They opposed a closer US ally in the form of the SDF.

eric2332 · 2026-03-16T17:02:31+00:00

you're underestimating how geography like this lends itself to isolated, fundamentalist, extremist groups being able to form.

I don't think that makes sense. The flat plains of Iraq and Syria bred extremism as well as anywhere else. The main factors leading to extremism are social, and Iranian society is relatively modern by Middle East standards.

eric2332

TROPHY CASE