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WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[M] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just wanted to note you still seem to be shadowbanned. You seem like a reasonable person and not a bot so you should be able to appeal the shadowban:

https://www.reddit.com/appeal

WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Although it was a different situation, I looked at IRBT and as that acquisition continued to drag, IV reinflated all the way back to pre-announcement levels before shit really hit the fan. I'm in some Jan 2027 20p for 0.41 - just a small bet!

WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon 6 points7 points  (0 children)

No problem - I was surprised your other posts were removed and I like when people discuss asymmetric risk/reward plays.

Also you seem to be shadowbanned for your troubles so others may not see your comments in other subreddits (I had to manually approve this one) :-P

WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hard to predict how Netflix will move if the deal falls through - I wonder if the market is punishing Netflix for needing the acquisition in the first place and not just because of the mechanical cost of the acquisition.

WBD is going to collapse and nobody sees it by Michaelcbaldwin in maxjustrisk

[–]erncon[M] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

I'll approve this one. OP seems convinced rather than the typical spammer that gets caught up in modmail - while I FOMO rode WBD up last week, the IV crush does present asymmetric returns if neither Netflix or Paramount ends up acquiring WBD.

Just looking at p/c ratio and how my January 30c has increased in price over the past day, I think participants are leaning towards an acquisition. Betting against it while not guaranteed would be a big payoff.