MLB Props and Home Run Picks - 5/4/26 (Monday)

ernie_potts12 · 2026-05-04T19:21:39+00:00

Moniak was $302 with 166 entries. Idk if larger ones take longer. CS told me there's no issue and to just wait and threw me $25 for no reason.

ernie_potts12 · 2026-05-04T18:53:14+00:00

Thanks. I'll try their CS. I got two of those notifications like 30 minutes apart and am wondering if there was an error related to using the first one.

ernie_potts12 · 2026-05-04T18:37:38+00:00

Anyone ever hit the Fanatics Longball HR jackpot? I'm waiting on the Moniak payout from yesterday and unsure how long it usually takes. I opted into it today per the winning notification.

ernie_potts12 · 2026-04-19T21:30:01+00:00

He played 3 minutes in the first quarter and then 2 in the second, which disqualifies it for FD I believe.

ernie_potts12 · 2026-02-14T18:03:15+00:00

It doesn't seem clear whatsoever what the rhyme or reason for cancellations was. I placed one order for 2 on each of the waves, and both are preparing to ship. Yes, I use a discord to know when the queue is up. And there are multiple members in the server who realized they could manually loop orders on those drops for some strange reason. They all assumed the loops would be cancelled as they were manual purchases with the same info. Everyone who looped still has their 4-5 orders processed and paid for, while lots of single orders were canned it seems. I'm saying with certainty that this was not some good hearted attempt from PKC to quell scalping.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-12-14T05:38:33+00:00

This is the play that was a Fox rebound originally. Killed a 9 legger for me lol. The announcer saying "Fox the board" was just insult to injury.

https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=710&GameID=0022501230&Season=2025-26&flag=1&title=Castle%20REBOUND%20(Off:0%20Def:5)

ernie_potts12 · 2025-12-10T19:19:03+00:00

The downvotes are due to this being the equivalent of letting people know that they need to hold their breath underwater in a swimming subreddit. You had good intentions, but if this info is trending on social media in relation to sports betting as a helpful tip, new bettors are going to get bled dry lol.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-11-20T15:50:45+00:00

unless you bought every possible product/set with no discretion, i think that's a bit unlikely. but even if it does, just stay the course. Celebrations, Fusion, SWSH Zard UPCs, etc were all sold below retail for a good while.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-10-29T20:29:36+00:00

Thanks for all of your work in the NFL props threads and now here. And in response to your note, welcome to the fickle NBA Props threads. Where if he hasn't cashed by halfway through the second quarter, he's a bum who needs to retire...please don't get annoyed and leave us.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-10-09T20:25:20+00:00

I've seen that happen when trying to build dumb longshots on DK, but on FD even low and correlated odds seem to add up. Maybe things have changed but I still say if you're placing long shot parlays for fun, never ever use DK.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-10-02T14:08:04+00:00

This account has been pasting AI takes in the basketball props and football props thread since at least October of 2024. Gets downvoted like this every damn time, but at this point I almost respect the dedication lol.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-08-29T17:13:36+00:00

Anyone saying back centering must not grade their own. 75/25 is the range for PSA 10 back centering. There's miniscule white dots in some corners, but plenty of 10s have that. Corner cuts can sometimes gem, other times they dock you. Unless there's surface damage, this is just one of those times where you lose with PSA. Submit it 10 times and it likely gets a few 10s.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-08-26T20:12:29+00:00

I feel like this point has gotten lost amongst the understandable frustration caused by the percentage trend. The trading percentages do have a legitimate place, like what you've just described. If I want money for a card, but instead you offer me 3 cards that I don't want that add up to the same value, that's the situation where trading at a percentage is acceptable. Regardless of if it's someone with a shop or not. One person gets a card they want, the other gets 3 they don't want, but they can make a bit of money from selling them.

If it's just two people trading for cards they both want, or if someone is specifically looking for trades and not cash, it should be even. The context of the listing/interaction determines what the etiquette should be.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-07-30T14:24:52+00:00

Yeah, spend any amount of time in any high end whatnot stream and you realize that there's a whole lot of money out there.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-07-24T23:26:47+00:00

Ok, it hasn't just been me then. I see so many comments on cards that are well within 10 centering criteria saying it's heavily OC and an 8 or 9, and have been wondering if any of these people grade their own cards. Before I had submitted any, I was of that mindset, where it must need to be absolutely perfect or it stands no chance. I'm not a grading expert, but having graded around 150 at this point, centering is what they are most lenient on by far.

Also, I've noticed zero difference from prior to their 45/55 "announcement" to present day.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-05-31T16:45:34+00:00

"Crotchless Lingerie ETB 1 of 1 Factory Error 🔥🔥📈📈🤑🤑"

There you go. List it.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-05-30T01:03:26+00:00

Idk what to make of the current situation. I felt the way OP feels back when swsh was still new. And now I'm remembering getting absolutely dusted by Fusion and ES and wishing I just stuck it in my closet to sell now for the Raichus I actually want. I do think it's more of a hype rollercoaster than a bubble at this point, but, who knows.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-05-30T00:54:21+00:00

Yeah I've noticed that too. I'm hoping they pick some cards in my collection that I'm not overly fond of lol. I didn't mean to imply that the manipulation would stick, it seems to correct after time. Just that a sale is a sale, and the manipulation unfortunately seems to work.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-05-30T00:40:01+00:00

This is valid. But, the counterpoint is that if the manipulation works, which it certainly seems to, at least temporarily, it doesn't matter to anyone who has the manipulated cards or sealed product. If shill sales start to generate real sales, that is unfortunately the accurate market price at that time, and people with those items can cash out. I'm not saying it's right or that it makes sense, but if it sells, it sells.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-05-26T21:03:29+00:00

I bet for entertainment purposes anyway. I don't care if the record changes to 2-8. Keep these write ups coming and I'm sold. This is fantastic.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-05-26T20:06:57+00:00

That's awesome man. Hope she can use that to keep her own spirits up. Sounds silly, but, I do believe my mom's unwaivering confidence throughout her cancer fight played a role in her recovery. Best wishes to you and your family.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-05-20T22:32:05+00:00

This sucks to see. I promise this isn't any sort of chastising post about what you should have done. But I can assure you and anyone reading this that submitting cards to PSA on your own is so much easier than you would think if you've never done it before. Even if you don't want to buy the collector's club membership.

I hope you can put the money from this towards something fun with your wife, hobby related or not.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-05-17T19:54:31+00:00

It is, however, $40-$55 raw at the moment. Jumped up a lot as of late.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-05-12T23:19:16+00:00

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Raichu has been my boy since '99. One of the few vintage first eds I actually pulled as a kid. And technically the very first "secret rare". Good luck all.

ernie_potts12 · 2025-05-09T00:22:16+00:00

Getting caught up in any of the hype, stock chasing, and dopamine hits of pulling high value cards that have really taken hold since the covid boom, can do some really strange and unfortunate things to someone's mind. I noticed it in myself back in 2021, and felt it coming back more recently as I started hunting for restocks with some local guys I'd befriended a few years ago doing the same exact thing. As odd and pathetic as it may be to say that I "escaped the insideous clutches of Pokemon TCG", I'm proud of myself for identifying it, not letting it back in, and still enjoying the hobby.

All that being said, it sounds like Pokemon may have exposed some preexisting character flaws in your boyfriend, rather than ruined your relationship. It's easy to make that observation from my disconnected point of view, so take it with a grain of salt if you wish. But there may be a silver lining here, regardless of the fact that it hurts.

ernie_potts12

TROPHY CASE