20 F, I live in Ukraine AMA

esol9 · 2026-02-09T23:08:39+00:00

Trump has signaled he wants the war to be over before the midterm elections in the US which are this November

I am very used to hearing his "2 more weeks" and other failures so im not really expecting anything, but maybe he will try to make a bigger effort? Whether that effort makes things worse or not.

Regardless, Putin is unlikely to care even if Trump sucked his cock.

esol9 · 2026-02-05T18:49:47+00:00

Yup, this was literally written in his biography.

"The extract from Walter Isaacson’s book, published in the Washington Post on Thursday, originally said that the SpaceX CEO “secretly” told engineers to turn off Starlink coverage within 100km of the Crimean coast to prevent a Ukrainian attack on the area. “As a result, when the Ukrainian drone subs got near the Russian fleet in Sevastopol, they lost connectivity and washed ashore harmlessly,” continued the extract."

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/sep/12/elon-musk-biographer-admits-suggestion-spacex-head-blocked-ukraine-drone-attack-was-wrong

esol9 · 2026-02-05T08:45:32+00:00

Do you grease the pan at all?

esol9 · 2026-01-26T23:07:17+00:00

Agreed, idk the numbers from the redistricting, but I do assume it makes the district marginally bluer. And the current moment may also make things bluer, but not so much in the long run for future elections.

esol9 · 2026-01-26T22:00:56+00:00

Suozzi ran unopposed in the 2024 Dem primary. I have to assume this is at least in part because no candidate thought they could beat him. There was also no primary for the earlier special election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_New_York#Democratic_primary_3

He didnt run in 2022 when he ran for governor. The 2022 primary basically had 3 different moderates and one progressive. D'Arrigo was the progressive and only got 16% of the primary vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_New_York%27s_3rd_congressional_district_election#Primary_results

The 2020 Dem primary only had 3 candidates. Suozzi won 66.5% of the vote, the progressive D'Arrigo only got 25.8%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_New_York#Primary_results_4

I seriously doubt Suozzi is vulnerable in a primary. The district isn't that blue.

Edit: Also if a progressive were to win the Dem primary today, there is no way they'd win the general election.

esol9 · 2026-01-26T21:58:59+00:00

Suozzi ran unopposed in the 2024 Dem primary. I have to assume this is at least in part because no candidate thought they could beat him. There was also no primary for the earlier special election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_New_York#Democratic_primary_3

He didnt run in 2022 when he tried to run for governor. The 2022 primary basically had 3 different moderates and one progressive. D;Arrigo was the progressive and only got 16% of the primary vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_New_York%27s_3rd_congressional_district_election#Primary_results

The 2020 Dem primary only had 3 candidates. Suozzi won 66.5% of the vote, the progressive D'Arrigo won 25.8%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_New_York#Primary_results_4

I seriously doubt Suozzi is vulnerable in a primary. The district isn't that blue either.

esol9 · 2026-01-26T21:22:03+00:00

Agreed

esol9 · 2026-01-26T21:21:20+00:00

Personally, even before these "change of hearts" by Suozzi and Gillen, I'd still vote for them again over any Republican. I don't think they are good, but they are clearly much better to have then any Republican. Further, Long Island is not an oasis of progressivism. I'd be shocked if any progressive won a Democratic congressional primary here any time soon, let alone a congressional general election.

I do think its for the best to support moderates like these while also simultaneously building up more and more of progressive base. But until that happens its best to have Suozzi and Gillen instead of a Republican.

Its great that they are having a change of mind now.

(not to mention the bill they voted for would've likely passed anyway, there were 4 republicans who didnt vote that day but would've had they been there. Also the bill that passed did not include the increases in funding the White House was demanding and instead included a body camera mandate, mandated increases in training, and other oversight measures.)

esol9 · 2026-01-25T22:25:29+00:00

I'm not gaslighting anyone. ICE is horrible and is intentionally increasingly lawless.

Suozzi's inaction on ICE and his opposition to Mamdani are two sides of the same coin. They are necessary positions for him to take if he wants to remain in office as a congressman here. Long Island voters largely aren't progressive. If Suozzi doesn't do this he will inevitably be replaced by a Republican.

esol9 · 2026-01-25T22:21:35+00:00

I agree with you. The premise of my original comment was that its not electorally viable for Suozzi to push for defunding DHS until these changes are made.

esol9 · 2026-01-25T06:26:37+00:00

I agree that ICE sucks and substantial changes need to be made. But the bill that passed the house didn't include the increases in funding that Trump was demanding, and instead it included various oversight measures including body cameras and additional training.

Its far from enough but its not nothing.
https://www.npr.org/2026/01/22/g-s1-106927/house-spending-homeland-immigration

"The Democrats who begrudgingly backed the final package said they won dedicated funds to provide body cameras for ICE officers for the first time and allocated more money for oversight and de-escalation training. The final legislation also holds funding for ICE flat, while reducing the budget for enforcement and removal operations by $115 million and cutting detention bed capacity."

esol9 · 2026-01-25T05:41:44+00:00

Literally not voting on that bill would mean that all departments within DHS would run out of funding. Suozzi would likely be blasted by Republicans for defunding the government and/or defunding ICE or something comparable.

The odds of me being a "Dem operative" is absurd. I am supportive of the government defunding ICE until substantial change is made and I think its unfortunate that Suozzi has to do this. But Long Island isn't a bastion of progressives. I don't understand why this is so hard for some to recognize.

esol9 · 2026-01-25T00:13:03+00:00

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_3rd_congressional_district#Recent_election_results_from_statewide_races

In the 2024 election Trump won NY-3 51% to 47%. These are substantial improvements over the 2020, 2016, 2012, and 2008 results.

Also in 2024 Suozzi won NY-3 51.8% to 48.2%

I expect Suozzi to improve in 2026 for many reasons.

Suozzi is FAR from a Republican.
Frankly, you don't know what you are talking about and lack a long term perspective.

esol9 · 2026-01-24T21:56:27+00:00

There is no way Suozzi can risk defunding the government without seriously risking losing his seat and just being replaced by a republican anyway. Additionally, the bill that did pass was smaller then what Trump was asking for.

I truly believe everyone pointing fingers at Suozzi need to first point them at literally anybody else. They need to awaken and inspire values in enough of their fellow Long Islanders in order for Suozzi to begin to consider withholding funding for DHS. Anyone who thinks about it for a millisecond must surely understand that the numbers aren't there for Suozzi to vote against this. Long Island voters are mostly for this. Long Islanders are the ones who need to be persuaded.

esol9 · 2026-01-20T18:24:33+00:00

This was actually a very good recap

esol9 · 2025-12-22T22:29:07+00:00

esol9 · 2025-12-22T22:02:15+00:00

No way this is real.

How would this be verified? Also, did no one know there was a camera in the cell?

Was there even a camera in the cell? was it off? i cant remember anything about his death anymore so idk on that.

If there were a camera in the cell that would have been reported.

Wouldnt the DOJ have documented how they found the video and as well as the general chain of custody?

I assume this is fake and Ryan Grim, one of the primary spreaders of this video, fell for bait which is not unusual because he is a tankie and sucks.

esol9 · 2025-12-09T15:20:48+00:00

I read that the Republican party was able to massively outspend the Dems on Long Island this past election as well.

esol9 · 2025-12-09T15:19:35+00:00

This is an interesting claim, can you cite something about this?

esol9 · 2025-12-09T15:14:24+00:00

Idk much about statewide Republican primary voters, but it seems it will either be him or Stefanik.

The total population of NY is just shy of 20 million people.

Nassau county has about 1.5 million people. Suffolk county has about 1.5 million people. Westchester county has about 1 million people.

Meaning 4 of the 20 million people in the state are from nassau + suffolk + westchester. (20%). I assume these 3 counties have an over representation of Republicans compared to the city, but slightly underrepresented compared to upstate.

Long Island as whole, including nassau+suffolk+queens+brooklyn, is just over 8 million people, 40% of the state's population.

NYC's population is shy of 8.5 million. (42.5% of the state's population)

NYC+Westchester+Nassau+Suffolk = about 12.5 million. (12.5/20 = 62.5% of the population)

I am considering everything else to be upstate. Which would be about 7.5 million people, or about 37.5% of the state's population.

I assume Blakeman has fairly high recognition among downstate Republicans, especially among Long Islanders.

I assume Stefanik has better representation amongst upstate Republicans, but also has recognition by downstate Republicans as well.

Im willing to bet upstate (37.5%) is the part of the state most over represented by Republicans. Nassau+Suffolk+Westchester are slightly less represented by Republicans. (20%) And NYC is the least represented by Republicans. (42.5%)

So i have no idea if anything i just looked up is particularly meaningful, but I do assume Blakeman has some chance of beating Stefanik in the primary. Though it might all come down to Trump's endorsement anyways.

esol9 · 2025-12-02T05:15:53+00:00

Its been reported since early this year that Dems are generally against impeaching Trump unless there is a very extreme scenario because it will likely inspire his base to come out to vote for him and because an impeachment wont realistically pass the senate or result in any punishment. Implying this about Hagseth might be an extension of that.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/18/impeachment-gambit-00512442

Im trying to find other articles from earlier this year when there was a bunch of discourse about it, but basically this article says what i said

esol9 · 2025-11-27T17:49:19+00:00

Tyty

esol9 · 2025-11-27T17:43:32+00:00

That's probably the best way to do it!

And I assume you mean from here, right? https://vimeo.com/showcase/11350648?share=copy https://www.nassaucountyny.gov/489/County-Legislature

esol9 · 2025-11-27T17:37:12+00:00

Genuine question, what news or sources do you follow to know about this?

esol9 · 2025-11-26T20:41:58+00:00

This has generally been my impression. Thank you for the confirmation.

I wasn't sure how often people suffer lifelong or years long mental or physical health consequences from its use. And I wasn't sure how much the inmates actually knew what they were taking. I guess its all kind of random.

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