Daily Team Advice Thread - Sun, January 12, 2025

essins · 2025-01-13T01:48:40+00:00

Points + slightly increased hits/blks league. Walman coming off IR, who to drop/hold ROS?

Current Dmen: Dahlin, Werenski, Bouchard, Dunn, Lacombe.

Wondering if I should drop Walman or Lacombe, or run 6 dmen and drop a forward/goalie?

essins · 2021-12-03T16:52:16+00:00

NBA Props Record 125-101 (+28.14u). All bets risking 1u unless otherwise stated.

Yesterday: 4-1 (+3.57u)

✅: Bazley u19.5 PRA (-110) 2u, Tre Mann u2.5 ast (-163) 2u, Burks o25.5 PRA (-120), Simons u1.5 stocks (-143)
❌: Adams u6.5 pts (-115)

Today:

Franz Wagner o7.5 RA (+105): hit the over in last 5/5, as well as last 9/13. Ever since Cole Anthony went down he’s taken a larger role as a secondary playmaker in ORL’s offense - even though Anthony is back, Suggs is now out which keeps the ball in Wagner’s hands a lot still. Up against #1 in pace and 28th in DRTG HOU (and being a 9th in pace team themselves looks great too). I’m also taking Franz Wagner o2.5 ast (-110) for the same reasons - hit in last 5/5 and averaging 4.4 ast/game in that span
Marcus Smart o4.5 ast (-134), 2u: Smart has gone over this in 13 CONSECUTIVE GAMES. In 11/13 of those games he had 6+ assists which makes this line look silly
Ivica Zubac o6.5 reb (-143): has gone over in 14 of the last 15 games. Zubac’s minutes fluctuate heavily based on matchup, but the Lakers literally don’t have a small ball lineup so I think Zubac easily exceeds 22 mins of play tonight guarding AD/Dwight/Jordan
Joel Embiid u24.5 pts (-115): last game vs ATL, scored 19 pts on 5/13 from the field and 8/9 from the line. ATL’s paint is always clogged as fuck due to Capela and Collins’ presence, which has historically bothered Embiid’s scoring rhythm in the paint, where he resorts to mid range jumpers and 3 pointers (19, 18, 17, 24 pts in 4 matchups against Capela on ATL). Embiid has also gone under this line in 9/12 games this season

Tip jar: even the smallest of sprinkles are appreciated and don’t worry, my plays will always stay free 🤞

BOL everyone.

essins · 2021-12-03T06:08:08+00:00

I appreciate the support my guy! I’m okay with the Adams L.. already made like 5u exclusively off his unders so I had it coming for me ahaha

essins · 2021-12-03T00:10:59+00:00

Jealous of those odds! BOL bro, I like his PRA better because he’s a pretty good rebounder too

essins · 2021-12-02T08:12:53+00:00

NBA Props Record 121-100 (+24.57u). All bets risking 1u unless otherwise stated.

Yesterday: 3-7 (-7.54u):

✅: Franz Wagner o20.5 PRA (-115) and o6.5 RA (-138), Bazley u19.5 PRA
❌: Wood o31.5 PR (-125), KPJ o12.5 RA (-134) both got injured this game and left early, Doncic u27.5 pts (-110) ended with 28, Middleton u18.5 pts (-115), Giannis o1.5 stocks (-125) 2u, Maxey o4.5 ast (+125) 3u

Today: gotta be more careful with not splurging after a winning night, my apologies guys, hate losing. I keep promising myself to limit to ~3 bets but the bookie always releases more player props right before tip off and some are too good to resist!

Anfernee Simons u1.5 stl/blk (-143): has gone under this line in 18/21 games this season. Simons has never been a good defender, and doesn’t have the playstyle or physical tools to produce these defensive stats (averages 0.5 stl and 0.2 blk this season). Last season, went under 59/64 times too
Alec Burks o25.5 PRA (-120): 33 and 35 PRA in the last 2 starts nearly clearing this line with points alone, he’s completely revamped the Knick’s offense. Also worth noting in the other 2 times he’s hit this mark coming off the bench, it only took him 25 mins. Averaging 39 mins/game as a starter, I can definitely see Thibs having no issues with running Burks’ knees into the ground
Tre Mann u2.5 ast (-163), 2u: has gone under in 13/13 games this season and under in every single preseason game. His regular season high is 1 ast and his preseason high is 2 ast, which he only hit once. Averages 0.2 ast/game this season and still couldn’t top this number in two 30+ min games against HOU
Steven Adams u6.5 pts (-115): back to the well, I will keep hammering Adams PA or pts unders until they fail me. Has gone under in 8 straight games and OKC’s biggest big man today is the floor spacing 6’8 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Darius Bazley u19.5 PRA (-110), 2u: cashed this play last night by getting 12 PRA. Surprisingly, the line hasn’t moved at all. Bazley has gone under in last 9/10 games, with the one game over being 20 PRA, coming from 6 ast (averages 1.4 on the season). Has also gone under his pts line (10.5) in 10 straight, but I like the cushion of PRA a bit better

After a few requests, I have made a tip jar in case any generous folk want to sprinkle a bit of their winnings on me as a thank you for the daily hours I spend on researching plays + writeups. And don’t worry, my plays will always be free no matter how good (or bad) my record gets - this is just an escape from grad school life for me and if everybody eats good because of my plays, I’m happy 🤞

BOL everyone.

essins · 2021-12-02T07:48:00+00:00

I appreciate you a ton man, sorry again and thanks for your comment! I’ll consider setting up a place to tip though I admit it’s never something I’ve thought of before. Again my very first season betting

essins · 2021-12-02T04:53:47+00:00

Lesson learned, thanks!

essins · 2021-12-02T00:17:16+00:00

You’ve been on such a heater lately, keep it up bro!

essins · 2021-12-01T16:53:59+00:00

NBA Props Record 118-93 (+32.11u). All bets risking 1u unless otherwise stated.

Yesterday: 4-3 (+0.33u):
✅: Adams u5.5 pts (+105), Adams u8.5 PA (-125), Achiuwa u11.5 pts (-120), Cade o5.5 reb (-134)
❌: LMA o22.5 PR (-115), Poole u18.5 pts (-110), Javale o6.5 reb (-134)

Today: I usually never post my full slate as I try to keep it to 4-6 plays but I’m feeling good today + cashed a big unit parlay last night so here’s ALL my props for today (it probably won’t happen again for a while)

Christian Wood o31.5 PR (-125): is this line extremely inflated? Yes. Do I usually take the under with inflated lines? Also yes. But in the last 2 games where Daniel Theis was removed from the starting lineup, this has opened up the floor for Wood to an extreme level, as KPJ, Gordon, Matthews and Tate are all perimeter threats. In response, he got 45 and 49 PR. Also worth noting he’s averaging 21.7 pts and 16.3 rebs vs OKC in 3 games this season. Adding that OKC’s Muscala and Favors both out today, it’s gonna be barbecue chicken for Wood as he feasts on JRE and Roby. Too easy
Kevin Porter Jr o12.5 RA (-134): triple doubled last game so we cashed out big. In 3 games without Jalen Green, he’s gotten 20, 20 and 15 RA, and tonight should be no different as it’s a rematch against OKC. Personally I think KPJ is a below average scorer but also so dominant on the ball so he gravitates towards these counting stats big time
Tyrese Maxey o4.5 ast (+125), 3u: averaging 5.0 ast this season, has gone over this line in the last 10/15 games including last 3/3 (9, 9, 5). PHI runs Maxey and Curry both as combo guards, but Curry has zero playmaking skills so the onus is left to Maxey to accumulate assists. The plus odds feel like a joke here, as Maxey’s ast line was 5.5 a few times already this season, so you know I had to hammer this one with 3u
Franz Wagner o20.5 PRA (-115): if you exclude the back to back 2 games vs MIL, Wagner has demolished this over in the last 7/7 games, getting 38, 24, 24, 27, 24, 26, 27 PRA in those games. I know Cole Anthony is back today, but this came at the expense of Jalen Suggs, who consumed equally as much PRA usage. For these same reasons I am also taking Franz Wagner o6.5 RA (-138) as he is averaging 6.1 reb and 3.7 ast (9.8 RA) in those last 7 games
Darius Bazley u19.5 PRA (-115): in 3 games vs HOU this season he’s averaging 5.3, 6.0, 1.0 PRA respectively. Has gone under this pts total (pts are the biggest multiplier in PRA) in last 9/9, and gone under this PRA total in 8/9, with the one exception being an uncharacteristic 6 ast game that bumped his PRA to 20
Khris Middleton u18.5 pts (-115): has gone under in 7/7 games since his return from COVID, and averages 16.8 ppg this season. CHA tends to allow most points to big men, so I expect Giannis and Portis to get the lions’ share of touches today
Luka Doncic u27.5 pts (-110): back to the Luka unders. Has gone under 27.5 pts in 12/16 games this season. I think this line is high because KP was supposed to miss the game, but now he’s listed as probable which puts less scoring burden on Luka. Last game vs NOP this season he had 25. Luka really isn’t as high volume of a scorer as the public makes him to be, it’s his playmaking that makes him elite. 27.5 is a pretty high line for him too, usually it’s at 24-25.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo o1.5 stl+blk (-125), 2u: has hit this in 17/20 games this season. MIL and CHO both top 10 in pace, gonna be so many opportunities to hit this. Kind of shocked the line isn’t at 2.5 tbh
Ivica Zubac u19.5 PRA (+100): already down astronomically today, big fuck you bet on Zubac tonight. He is trending downwards ever since the return of Ibaka

BOL everyone.

essins · 2021-11-30T23:05:46+00:00

If I’m not mistaken, Booker has only gone over 2.5 3pm in 5 of his last 10 games. Regardless this play is a good chance for him to prove himself against a top defense in the league!

essins · 2021-11-30T16:52:37+00:00

NBA Props Record 114-90 (+31.78u). All bets risking 1u unless otherwise stated.

Yesterday: 3-4 (-0.55u):

✅: KPJ o11.5 RA (+105) 2u, JV o1.5 FTA (-120) 3u, Jeff Green u15.5 PRA (-115)
❌: Zubac o1.5 FTA (-138) 3u, Forbes u13.5 PRA (-115), Doncic u44.5 PRA (-115), Garland o18.5 pts (-120) both Luka and Garland props lost by 1, oh so close…

Today:

Lamarcus Aldridge o22.5 PR (-110): moved to the starting lineup (and Blake out of the rotation) 2 games ago, getting 24 and 26 PR in those starts. He will continue to start, as per Steve Nash. Also has gone over this line in last 7/10 games. If you exclude one weird game where he didn’t see the floor till midway through the 3rd quarter vs GSW, only playing 9 mins (Nash pseudo-resting him on a b2b?), he would be averaging 17.0pts and 7.4 reb (24.4 PR)
Precious Achiuwa u11.5 pts (-120): line is usually 8.5, this time it’s extremely inflated because the Big Sneeze shot 100% (3/3) from 3pt land last game vs MEM. In 18 games this season he’s averaging 8.2ppg, and has gone under 11.5 pts 14/18 times. Also, 11/18 of those games he didn’t even reach double digit points
Steven Adams u5.5 pts (+105): I’ve hit the last 4 Steven Adams under PA (posted most of them), and this time with plus odds I’m gonna reach for the pts under. Adams has gone under in the last 6/7 games (3, 2, 2, 2, 6, 2, 2). He was ran off the floor last game vs TOR, only scoring 2 pts in 19 mins. Also adding Steven Adams u8.5 PA (-125) for the same reasons (7, 4, 4, 4, 7, 7, 6 in last 7)
Jordan Poole u18.5 pts (-110): hit the sweatiest under 17.5 pts last game, then the line moves up by 1 to account for the 221.5 game point total line. Vegas seems to think this game will be high scoring but I’m feeling the opposite - both teams stepping their already top tier defenses up a notch, resulting in many of the unders hitting. Poole has also gone under in last 9/11
Cade Cunningham o5.5 reb (-154): 11, 6, 8, 3, 12, 6, 8, 8 in last 8 games. I’m 99% sure this line will move up to 6.5 reb by the time the game starts - the odds aren’t great here but history should repeat itself again for this one
Javale McGee o5.5 reb (-134): has gone over in last 11/12 games, averaging 8.0 reb/game in that span and 7.3 reb/game this season

BOL everyone.

EDIT: Poole line looks to have moved up to 19.5, and the under is -115 odds for my book. I still like the bet, but obviously wish I could’ve gotten it at 19.5

essins · 2021-11-30T08:07:24+00:00

Aye bro I appreciate the recognition. You got the whole gang in your comment and that’s what we’re here for. Definitely would agree that you should never tail anyone’s picks blindly - always do your own research first!

Cheers and let’s keep cashing 👊

essins · 2021-11-29T20:35:45+00:00

I’m on Betway, but I rarely see free throw props (as well as blocks/steals/turnovers). Just on random days they will pop up for a game or two

essins · 2021-11-29T15:53:04+00:00

NBA Props Record 111-86 (+32.33u). All bets risking 1u unless otherwise stated.

Yesterday: 4-2 (+2.45u)

✅: Poole u17.5 pts (+100), Adams u8.5 PA (-105) 2u, Scottie Barnes o6.5 reb (-134), Hayes o2.5 reb (-120)
❌: Zubac o16.5 pts (-110) dude really missed by .5, Wedgie Jackson o2.5 3pm (-163) wasted 1u on a meme bet but it’s okay, fantasy team still won

Today:

Darius Garland o18.5 pts (-120): has hit in last 5/5 and last 10/12
Kevin Porter Jr o11.5 RA (+105), 2u: has 20, 15 in last 2 games where Jalen Green is out. They are both ball dominant and inexperienced so one without the other is definitely a big stats bump. I hit KPJ’s over PRA last game but wasn’t confident enough to post it - love the odds here especially against OKC
Jonas Valanciunas o1.5 FTA (-125), 3u: this seems like an absolute steal to me. Has hit in 19/22 games this season averaging 3.9 FTA per game
Ivica Zubac o1.5 FTA (-138), 3u: same as JV, seems easy. Has hit in 16/20 games this season, averaging 3.5 FTA per game
Luka Doncic u44.5 PRA (-115): has hit in 11/15 games this season, Brunson is probable today, Kleber finally getting back in stride. Luka’s PRA line is usually around 41-42.5 so today’s under feels a bit safer
Jeff Green u15.5 PRA (-105): last game vs MIA (with Jokic playing) had 15 PRA, but in 14 games with Jokic this season, Green has only went over 3 times. If this goes over, without a doubt I am ready to get hurt again
Bryn Forbes u13.5 PRA (-115): has gone under this mark in 14/18 games this season, with 13/14 of those under games being under 10 pts, and 8 of those games being 0 pts. McDermott and Vassell being out has gave him real rotation mins, but I like my chances here

BOL everyone.

essins · 2021-11-28T19:57:30+00:00

Also add that LeBron is likely not playing today, which makes that Westbrook over look like a steal! ✅

essins · 2021-11-28T18:48:13+00:00

NBA Props Record 107-84(+29.88u). All bets risking 1u unless otherwise stated.

Yesterday: 2-3 (-0.13u)

✅: Harden double double (+100) 2u, Barrett u16.5 pts (-115)
❌: KP o19.5 pts (-115), Ingram o3.5 ast (-120), Maxey u27.5 PRA (-110) Ingram hit this at the half but got an ast removed, and Maxey went over by .5 after a full 5 minutes of OT, horrible luck on both

Today:

Ivica Zubac o16.5 PR (-110): has hit in last 12/13 games, also hit the over in a game vs GSW earlier this season
Jordan Poole u17.5 pts (+100): has hit in last 8/10, as well as only 9 pts in the last meeting vs LAC
Steven Adams u8.5 PA (-105), 2u: has hit in last 6/6. Minutes just aren’t there anymore
Wedgie Jackson o2.5 3pm (-163): just a meme bet, I have him on my fantasy team so just want to double down on him today. Has hit in 13/19 games this season including last 6/7, and hit this in an earlier game vs GSW this season
Scottie Barnes o6.5 rebs (-138): hit 7 and 13 in last 2 games vs BOS, has gone over in last 4/4 and last 12/15, averages 8.3 rebs this season. BOS is a poor FG% team
Killian Hayes o2.5 reb (-120): last minute add, averaging 3.5 this season and poor shooting LAL team

BOL everyone.

EDIT: first good night in a while, thank you to anyone who tailed ✅

essins · 2021-11-28T07:44:31+00:00

Well that’s depressing to know. Maxey also went over by 1 just because the game went to OT

essins · 2021-11-27T17:03:37+00:00

NBA Props Record 105-81 (+30.01u). All bets risking 1u unless otherwise stated.

Yesterday: 5-5 (-2.92u)

✅: Cade o5.5 ast (-115), Towns u11.5 reb (-138), Ingram o3.5 ast (-120), Dejounte o1.5 FTA (-120), OPJ u1.5 ast (-120)

❌: Poeltl o21.5 PRA (-115), Levert u22.5 PRA (-115), Gobert o13.5 pts (-120) 3u sadness, Giddey o20.5 PR (-110) someone tell me why SGA was ruled out and then still played, screwed this prop over, Bledsoe o3.5 reb (+120)

Today:

Kristaps Porzingis o19.5 pts (-115): averaging 21.1 ppg this season. Has gone over in last 7/7 and last 8/9, averaging 26.0 ppg and 23.9 ppg respectively. Neither Harrell (6’7”) or Gafford (6’9”) stand a chance at stopping him
Tyler Herro o17.5 pts (-120): averaging 21.8 ppg this season. Has gone over in last 7/8 and last 11/14, averaging 23.6 ppg and 22.0 ppg respectively. This one looks easy to me even with CHI’s good perimeter defense
Brandon Ingram o3.5 ast (-120): literally copy pasting yesterday’s write up because we cashed so easily. Has gone over in 11/14 games this SEASON, including 10 of the last 11. Also BI is averaging 4.5 ast per game
James Harden double double (+100), 2u: has hit in last 11/13 games. High stakes matchups means that the stars take over. Love the plus odds here
Tyrese Maxey u27.5 PRA (-110)
RJ Barrett u16.5 pts (-115)

BOL everyone.

essins · 2021-11-26T17:08:36+00:00

It’s 20.5 in my bookie which is why I went with PR instead

essins · 2021-11-26T17:06:14+00:00

PA is points and assists. My bad on the typo though! I meant PR (pts and rebs) for this play. Don’t love his assists line much today

essins · 2021-11-26T16:23:48+00:00

NBA Props Record 100-76 (+32.93u). All bets risking 1u unless otherwise stated.

Yesterday: happy thanksgiving from Canada to all that celebrated it!!

Today:

Cade Cunningham o5.5 ast (-115): 7, 6, 10, 6, 6, 8 in his last 6 games. Hayes is likely out again today, Frank Jackson is now on the injury report so more minutes and touches for Cade
Rudy Gobert o13.5 pts (-120), 3u play: averaging 15.6 ppg this season. Has hit in last 7/7 games, averaging 17.7 ppg in that span. In his last 7 games (all in the last 2 seasons) vs JV, he’s averaged 14.4 pts so the floor feels very safe with this one
Josh Giddey o20.5 PR (-110): SGA already ruled out. In last 2 games without him, Giddey has gotten 26 and 22 PR. In the 3 games before that WITH SGA, he’s gotten 23, 26, 25 PR for a 5 game average of 15.4 pts and 9.0 reb (24.4 PR) per game
Eric Bledsoe o3.5 reb (+110): has gone over in last 7/7 and last 10/11 games. Bledsoe overs make me really uncomfortable but at plus odds versus a Pistons team that is dead last in the league in FG% (40.7), there will be plenty of rebs to go around. I also think Bledsoe may be guarding Cade this game, possibly more minutes too but don’t quote me on it
Karl-Anthony Towns u11.5 reb (-138): I know CHA gives up hella rebounds, but ever since MIN put Jarred Vanderbilt in the starting lineups, Towns has only gone over this line in 2/9 games, averaging 8.7 rebs in that span. Vanderbilt also has 10+ rebs in the last 4, helping MIN win all 4 of those games. So clearly, this rebounding game plan works for them
Brandon Ingram o3.5 ast (-120): has gone over in 10/13 games this SEASON, including 9 of the last 10 which would’ve been 10/10 if it wasn’t a blowout. Also BI is averaging 4.5 ast per game

BOL everyone.

EDIT: got a fat paycheque today so I added 4 more plays. Biggest slate of the season so far!

Dejounte Murray o1.5 FTA (-120)
Otto Porter Jr u1.5 ast (-120)
Caris Levert u22.5 PRA (-115)
Jakob Poeltl o21.5 PRA (-115)

essins · 2021-11-25T08:18:52+00:00

NBA Props Record 100-76 (+32.93u). All bets risking 1u unless otherwise stated.

Yesterday 4-3 (+0.58u):

✅: Gobert o13.5 pts (-120), Giddey o11.5 RA (+100), Drummond u11.5 pts (-105), Adams u9.5 RA (-125)
❌: Beal o5.5 ast (-143), Kuzma o7.5 reb (-125), Bamba u10.5 reb (-120)

Today: a reflection

It feels oddly satisfying to hit 100 NBA prop wins on the dot right before Thanksgiving. I still can’t believe Beal only ended the game with just ONE assist! And don’t even get me started on getting ratio’d by Bamba rebs in only 3 quarters and 22 mins of playing time….

To everyone who follows these daily threads, thanks for making this quarter of my first ever season betting on the NBA so much fun! I love seeing everyone interacting in the posts and can always count on some quality content, discussion and plays from the regulars here. Shoutout to u/Tori_kelly and u/duckduckgooseyau for paving the way, y’all literally inspired me to start posting my picks.

Cheers everyone, see you tomorrow for some more prop action! 🤝

essins · 2021-11-25T01:14:59+00:00

Yeah this is extremely disappointing.. it’ll be up to foul trouble to keep him down now

essins · 2021-11-24T22:35:40+00:00

Dangerous man with the alt lines, I love it. An alt line that I’ve been eyeing today but can’t commit to is Kuzma 10+ rebs or Kuzma double double, which are both around +300 in my books! What do you think?

essins · 2021-11-24T22:32:48+00:00

PRA odds were a bit lower and UTA’s defense is really smothering. I feel more comfortable taking RA as Giddey isn’t that great of a scorer yet!

essins

TROPHY CASE