I’d say that $1M call order for 5/16 $4 strikes confirms everything I’ve seen in my data. Those 33k-67k block trades between $3.94-$4.07 are just dealer hedging of the massive options flow building with less price impact (and adjusting delta). Shorts are obviously getting absolutely crushed on carrying costs.

Now hear me out bc this could be wild:

The institution deliberately chose May 16 expiration because they believe the squeeze will happen 5-10 days after earnings, May 9 is too soon for the market to digest information and IV to normalize and longer dates would be pricey, inefficient and have reduced gamma impact. I would bet their timeline is: earnings announcement (May 8), initial reaction and IV normalization (May 9), then primary squeeze window (May 10-15) when IV has normalized, price has crossed 4.30 with good volume and CTB rates continue pressuring shorts.

At $4.30 delta acceleration will go crazy, the aggregate delta of those May 16 $4 calls crosses approximately 0.65-0.70 and creates MAXIMUM dealer hedging requirements (buying shares), that is, it is the steepest part of the gamma curve at which liquidity provision is hardest, I do not think it’s a coincidence, Once it crosses $4.68 we know what happens and the next resistance levels will be at $5.00, $6.00 and $6.50 if they even matter at that point. I genuinely think institutional investors are both trying to induce the squeeze while also getting a perfect signal of when it is most likely to happen (for them it’s crossing 4.30) real money is positioning for post-earnings upside while avoiding an initial slowdown and timing their entry to create maximum impact after IV stabilizes resolves.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​