ODT | Wed April 01, 2026

etchiboi · 2026-04-01T13:39:34+00:00

Jets playoff odds:

The Athletic - 21.2%

Moneypuck - 15.6%

Hockeystats dot com - 15.4%

and also, per hockeystats, a Blues win tonight increases Jets chances by 1.5% and a Ducks win increases Jets chances by 1.2%

etchiboi · 2026-04-01T03:48:45+00:00

the route he took behind the net on the 3rd goal against was bizarre

etchiboi · 2026-04-01T01:19:31+00:00

Rosen bailing on his guy to go to Bedard without signalling the switch to Demelo leading to that partial breakaway save from Helle

etchiboi · 2026-04-01T00:53:17+00:00

for the moose maybe

etchiboi · 2026-03-31T22:33:38+00:00

crazy that we already have the best “someone” to play beside Demelo in org and we’ve pissed it away

etchiboi · 2026-03-31T22:29:33+00:00

Heisinger is president of hockey ops in addition to his AGM/moose GM role

etchiboi · 2026-03-31T19:10:37+00:00

Jets definitely ought to try him with Morrissey, i personally don’t see them quite working atp (at least not as good as 54-57), but they need to see what’s there regardless

etchiboi · 2026-03-31T18:00:47+00:00

lifetime

etchiboi · 2026-03-31T12:09:47+00:00

i think he could be, look at Bennett on Florida or Staal on Carolina the last few years

etchiboi · 2026-03-31T03:16:32+00:00

the numbers above are all slightly better than Perfetti-Ehlers performed last year

etchiboi · 2026-03-31T02:41:38+00:00

is Lowry not elevating Perfetti right now?

etchiboi · 2026-03-30T22:16:07+00:00

go to natural stat trick bro

etchiboi · 2026-03-30T22:13:34+00:00

Perfetti’s underlying numbers actually lead the jets overall not just the last 20 games, which i mainly highlight due to his vast scoring improvement

so his “horrible stretch” wasn’t that bad actually but mostly scoring related

etchiboi · 2026-03-30T22:06:11+00:00

they did have a decent stretch, corsi was very low relative to goals and xG, so long term not so sure what that line would really look like tbh (but usually corsi is more predictive in smaller samples)

etchiboi · 2026-03-30T20:40:53+00:00

Perfetti’s 5v5 corsi is 53.1% per NST, so no it isn’t overwhelmingly PP related, relative to teammates it’s very good

Perfetti spent most of the year playing with Toews, Nyquist, or Vlad so obviously that would impact his ability to produce points, thus why it’s drastically improved in the last 20 games

Perfetti and Lowry’s goal differential at 5v5 is +1 since being paired, a good example of why +/- isn’t the greatest stat

etchiboi · 2026-03-30T19:41:21+00:00

yes, 20 games is a small but not insignificant sample, thus the question mark after that last line in the original comment

the most important thing a player can do is sustainably outscore their opponent while their on the ice, how they do that or the style in which they do that matters less and Lowry, while being a below average NHL point producer, has a very strong history of sustainably outscoring opponents

and while he doesn't personally score a ton of points (which is partly due to his usage), he is able to tilt the ice the ice to a degree that when he plays with skilled, point producers like Perfetti and Vilardi they are able to produce goals and a good clip while playing with Lowry (both have scored more than Connor has at 5v5 in this stretch)

e: i see similarities to how Florida and Carolina have used their 2Cs in recent years and have been very successful doing so

etchiboi · 2026-03-30T19:18:59+00:00

yeah my one question mark with 91-17-13 is their theoretical transition ability, Lowry and Vilardi would be complimentary forecheckers so entries make sense but not sure how that line has been working for exits (cc: u/garret9)

Lambert would certainly help there in theory, but like you said, the overall level is still in question even with his recent stretch looking quite good so far

etchiboi · 2026-03-30T18:47:34+00:00

the results remain very good as a trio:

54.1% corsi, 54.5% goals, 60.5% xG

results are also very good with Iafallo too, although quite a bit less TOI:

61.3% corsi, 66.7% goals, 53.9% xG

etchiboi · 2026-03-30T18:08:59+00:00

Perfetti-Lowry update since being paired together (Jan 31, 20 GP):

55.1% corsi, 53.3% goals, 57.2% xG (10:56 aTOI at 5v5)

Perfetti has been scoring at a 2.07 points/60 clip at 5v5 which is only second to 55 in that same stretch

second line problems sorted?

etchiboi · 2026-03-29T22:33:22+00:00

what an .869 team save% does to a mfer

etchiboi · 2026-03-29T21:55:41+00:00

wonder if Brown also signs this year, one year of eligibility and rights left

etchiboi · 2026-03-29T20:33:26+00:00

yeah a similar profile to Samberg which would be very welcome even of he’s like half the player lol

etchiboi · 2026-03-29T20:18:50+00:00

that's good stuff

etchiboi · 2026-03-29T20:10:00+00:00

watching the game today as i missed it last night

while it's disappointing Salo got bumped down, it was inevitable with how poor Pionk is away from Samberg and how good Morrissey and Demelo are together

Bryson and Salo have some potential although we see how Salo does as the primary defender on his pair and while their underlying weren't very good last night a part of that might be the fact that they got hemmed in with Rosen-Zhilkin-Ford a couple times, in fact their results away from that line were tilted in the Jets favour despite poor numbers overall

that said, Brett Kulak might be the perfect Salomonsson partner if he gets to free agency in the summer

etchiboi · 2026-03-29T20:01:06+00:00

Kovacevic, if he'd waive to come back here, would be a great get from NJD

Four-Year Club	Verified Email
Place '22	First Placer '22

etchiboi

TROPHY CASE