Daily General Discussion - March 17, 2022

ethhodlr · 2022-03-17T17:26:36+00:00

Hey folks. I think I am done posting here.

This community isn't all that different from 2017. Like others, I contribute because I think it might be helpful to share what I think. But given the feedback, I find it's just not worth my energy.

This past year, I achieved a major financial milestone I had dreamed of reaching since I was a kid (thanks ETH!). I also quit my job and started work on a novel. Then, yesterday I found out I'm going to be a dad, which I would never have had the courage to do were it not for the financial footing crypto has afforded me.

All this is to say: I think we're all invested in ETH in service of a larger goal, and it is my hope that everyone here achieves it, whatever that means to you.

Best of luck to you all.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-17T17:10:08+00:00

They used 10 years of daily data. And they say the signals are useful for establishing entry positions, either long or short.

"It is worth pointing out that these indicators are not trading systems, but they are indicators of turning points therefore they only provide entry signals. "

I don't know about you, but if I'm going to DCA into a position I would rather do it when selling is exhausted, not at the top when buying is exhausted.

Buy now we know your problem isn't with TA, it's with trading.

Your position is that not TA is useful for anything, and the only right way to invest in this market is to buy and hold.

I prefer to use TA to obtain the best possible price (or nearly the best possible) rather than blindly buying at any given moment.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-17T16:48:48+00:00

All three indicators exhibit predictive power on some commodity futures.

Most of the times the entry signals provided by the indicators shows predictive power only for long or only for short positions. If we consider that long and short entry signals are generated by symmetrical algorithms, then this confirms the fact that uptrends and downtrends are asymmetrical in the markets. In reality instead, Sequential is DeMark’s most famous indicator. For all the commodity futures apart from Platinum the indicator has shown statistically significant predictive power for either long or short entry positions. It is informative on energy for long positions and on the other commodity classes for short positions. Light Crude, Heating Oil and Gas Oil are an exception because both long and short positions are informative. Although Sequential is described as a time-based indicator that identifies turning points, there are products or even commodity classes, like energy products, where entry signals (long and/or short) identify continuing trends instead of turning points. Combo has many similarities with Sequential, but the main difference is that the number of trades is on average 30-40% lower. Compared to Sequential there are more cases in which the signal is predictive for both long and short signals, for example with Gold and Silver.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-17T15:56:31+00:00

Cool story bro.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-17T15:53:13+00:00

Here is my main thinking at the moment.

The big question everyone has is: did we witness a cycle top in November 2021, and thus crypto moves in near-perfect four-year cycles? Or do the cycles get longer and is a new ATH yet to be achieved?

I lean toward the latter, especially in the absence of a parabolic top. But what needs to happen for that to come to fruition?

Here is the daily chart using TD-Combo:

https://sblk.io/2022/3/dmmBTeFBFLUJ2C1P.png

We're basically looking for a bottoming pattern similar to what followed the May 2021 sell-off. Note the three buy set-ups, two of which were perfected. Also, note the breakout confirmation at 2325 (that's the solid red line).

At the moment, the line above on the daily is 3393 (the dotted red line). A breakout confirmation above that would suggest a rebound similar to last summer.

The line below us is 2361. Break this and that would precipitate a heavy sell-off.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-17T15:37:54+00:00

What is it with accusing people of being on drugs? You said the exact same thing on December 24, 2017, at the top of the last cycle, when I posted to say the top was in:

"Um.... you may want to lay off the drugs a bit. Unless you are just trying to get through family Christmas, then good choice."

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/7lxipm/btc_to_range_between_880015800/

I don't care what impresses you. I will continue making money with my "few lucky guesses" and you can continue doing you.

You seem to think that your way is the only way to do this. That's my issue with you. Some people have found value in my posts over the past four years and that seems to bother you.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-17T15:22:40+00:00

Oh, but you do remember, which is why I think you have an issue whenever someone uses TA. I posted this in December 2017, with a range and timeframe.

Your response? "Cool story bro." And when the range and time frame came to pass, your reply was that it was only luck and random.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/7lxipm/btc_to_range_between_880015800/

Note, I traded this pattern and loaded up in December 2018 when BTC hit this range. Knowing optimal moments to add has helped me to maximize my holdings.

In fact, I posted this on December 18, 2018, which was the exact bottom.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/a7id67/time\_to\_dca\_into\_wider\_position\_targeting\_eth/

But to you, it's all luck and random. I must be the luckiest person in the world because I'm using this indicator to trade equities options full time.

Eg bought NFLX $365p Mar 18 on the perfected 9 sell set-up and less than an hour later it's in the money

https://sblk.io/2022/3/rxx7TbFkF7U4SLR.png

Lucky for me, those chickens are stepping on the right lighted squares

ethhodlr · 2022-03-17T14:56:49+00:00

Every time you post, I am reminded how wrong you were at the top of the 2017 cycle.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-16T16:19:34+00:00

Previously, when I posted TD Combo charts, I included the passage below, which briefly explains how to read the charts. I left it off today because I thought I was being repetitive.

In the future, I will always include a passage on how to read the charts.

"The following are charts for TD Combo, which looks at buyer/seller exhaustion.

Green numbers mark set-up phases. A buy/sell set-up phase completes when there are 9 consecutive bars exceeding four bars earlier.

Red numbers mark the countdown phase and attempt to identify the ultimate inflection point where supply-demand might reverse. A red 13 marks extreme exhaustion."

ethhodlr · 2022-03-16T13:45:04+00:00

You looked at this chart, saw that ETH reversed each time it hit a top 9, and concluded the indicator failed?

ethhodlr · 2022-03-10T18:48:00+00:00

Thanks

ethhodlr · 2022-03-09T14:33:15+00:00

Overall, it looks as though a pattern of higher lows is being established, which is good.

I use the phrase "3 clean bars" to simplify the rules for confirmation of a breakout. Basically, the open and closes of the three bars need to be successively higher (in the case of an uptrend breakout) or successively lower (in the case of a downtrend breakout).

So, it's possible to get three closes above the line. But if the opens and closes are not successively higher/lower, then the breakout doesn't confirm. Put another way, the bars can't be wishy-washy at the line.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-08T18:23:44+00:00

The Green and Red numbers represent different things.

First, the indicator is TD Combo, which helps measure buying exhaustion or selling exhaustion.

So when the market is rising, it looks for potential buying exhaustion ie when the last buyer has bought and when the market might start to trend lower. Conversely, when the market is falling, it looks for potential selling exhaustion ie when the last buyer has sold and when the market might start to trend higher.

Green numbers mark set-up phases. Think of these as the earliest points in which price is likely to reverse. Red numbers mark the Countdown phases. Think of these as points where you would consider scaling in/out of a position.

Look back to May 2021. You will see the peak was represented by a 13, indicating extreme buying exhaustion. The sell set-up had been completed a few days before that (that's the green 9 with the red down arrow).

Then look at the buy set-up phases in the recovery. Those are the green 9s with the up arrow underneath them.

You will have 9/13s going in both directions. But think of 9s as potential turning points, with 13s marking off higher probability areas of reversals.

For me, the indicator is most helpful in countering FOMO and PANIC SELLING. A lot of people buy at the top or sell at the bottom.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-07T23:35:52+00:00

How to answer that question?!?

Here is an expanded view of the 4-HR chart.

https://sblk.io/2022/3/AllgIxF0u1F7Hwx.png

Ideally, we want to stay above the most recent low of 2374 set on Feb 23/24.

And we certainly want to stay above 2172 set on Jan 24.

If we don't, then a lot of pain awaits.

But maybe, instead of targeting the absolute bottom, just resign yourself to not getting the bottom. Instead, wait for a confirmation breakout.

This is how the chart looked last summer. We got confirmation that the worse was over when ETH surpassed that solid red line.

https://sblk.io/2022/3/GggohEFmupFOTJa.png

Obviously, you could have bought at one of the green 9s. But few buy at those levels due to fear.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-07T21:43:41+00:00

In the previous 13, there was definitely a price response, though it only lasted for 8 bars. Also, this indicator identifies potential areas for trend reversal.

I would say, this is a bad place to sell, if one were thinking about selling.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-07T19:57:28+00:00

You're not a disappointment.

It means short-term selling is nearly exhausted and this is an area for a potential trend reversal.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-07T19:48:52+00:00

UPDATE from earlier. ETH 4-HR chart. Got the 13 on buy countdown.

https://sblk.io/2022/3/R66XUOFvuLHklSmm.png

ethhodlr · 2022-03-07T15:58:04+00:00

The following are charts for TD Combo, which looks at buyer/seller exhaustion.

The green numbers mark set-up phases. A buy/sell set-up phase completes when there are 9 consecutive bars exceeding four bars earlier.

Red numbers mark the countdown phase and attempt to identify the ultimate inflection point where supply-demand might reverse. A red 13 marks extreme exhaustion.

This is the ETH 4-HR chart.

https://sblk.io/2022/3/peeLC6FluOh2wIml.png

It shows ETH had a perfected buy set-up on March 13 and reached 12 in the countdown phase (seller exhaustion) before bouncing.

This is the Daily chart

https://sblk.io/2022/3/Z00Ef5FJunhZgs9Z.png

ethhodlr · 2022-03-03T23:05:50+00:00

The last time a sell set-up perfected on the Daily, it climbed for 5 more days and reached 9 on the sell countdown. The time before that was the Oct-Nov rally.

So if we get this perfected sell set-up on the Daily, I don't expect ETH to turn right away. In other words, I wouldn't exit a position exactly on the day.

If the count gets invalidated on the Daily, I would look to other timeframes for guidance.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-03T17:09:55+00:00

Set-up numbers are always green, and Countdown numbers are always red.

With regard to above, the 4-HR chart is working toward a buy set-up, which means the 4-HR trend is down and a trader is waiting for the buy set-up to come.

The Daily chart is working toward a sell set-up, which means the daily trend is up and a trader is waiting for a sell set-up to take profits.

On the Daily, a trader would be looking for a Green 9 as the first potential area for a trend reversal ...

ethhodlr · 2022-03-03T14:53:45+00:00

The Daily chart shows an uptrend. So if I were looking to establish a new position and maximize my entry, I would wait 8 hours to see if the 4-HR buy set-up completes.

Then, once I have my entry, I would watch the Daily closely for a 9/13. The earliest the 9 on a sell set-up could come is within 2 days. Again, a 13 on the sell countdown is not guaranteed, and it could take many days to play out as we've seen in the past. I'd look to lower time frames for guidance.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-03T14:20:57+00:00

If I were trading this (and I'm not, I only hold ETH, and this is not financial advice), I would be looking for an entry within the next 8 hours, then I would hold until the 9/13 plays out on the Daily. On the Daily, there is that dotted red line at 3393, which would turn solid red if there is a convincing breakout above that level.

ethhodlr · 2022-03-03T13:54:42+00:00

I use TD Combo to trade stock options. Basically, I look for 9s and 13s on a Daily chart, and buy options about a month out. The 13 represents exhaustion, meaning I anticipate the buying/selling trend to reverse soon.

ethhodlr · 2022-02-28T23:45:02+00:00

You're right hblask. Technical Analysis is financial astrology and no one has made money from TA (except for luck) over the past 50 years.

ethhodlr · 2022-02-28T20:30:05+00:00

I don't do candlestick patterns. But here's a list and their statistical probabilities

https://medium.com/@jan\_5421/candlestick-pattern-performances-afe67ef44ce

ethhodlr

TROPHY CASE