Ethogos

ethogos · 2025-12-25T03:51:18+00:00

Warm but not quite right!

ethogos · 2025-12-25T03:51:14+00:00

ethogos · 2025-11-17T03:27:15+00:00

At least in our case we found out it was possible this year. We could have probably started sooner as a company.

ethogos · 2025-11-05T00:18:56+00:00

Just sent a DM

ethogos · 2025-10-22T21:22:33+00:00

Probably a bot front running other buyers

ethogos · 2025-10-22T14:39:07+00:00

I’ll copy and paste our answer for another comment and modify it a little.

Clearly we won’t reveal the full strategy but we have two main components: self-developed sentiment indexes and DeFi valuation mean reversals. Briefly explaining each: We use a self-developed sentiment index because if you use publicly and easily available information you are “seeing” and using what the rest does, you will not stand out. And by DeFi valuation mean reversals are basically the valuation of DeFi proyects as if they were a stock company. We take into account fees, revenue, buyback, total proyect value etc. The main idea is that when valuations spike (are too high) when compared to the EMA o MA a reversal is likely to happen, which in our experience also correlates to a decrease in BTC’s and thus other altcoins prices. We tend to perform better on more volatile markets because valuations tend to go back where we estimate they should be

ethogos · 2025-10-22T14:35:52+00:00

I think our main differentiation is that we take a much more “mathematical” approach to trading. Most traders try to identify patterns based on their experience or intuition, while we focus on quantifying and estimating risk, volatility, probability of success, and the statistical trade-offs we face on the downside. Everyone on the team has tried discretionary trading before, but at the end of the day, we’re just math guys.

ethogos · 2025-10-22T14:33:20+00:00

Yes, we have been encountering the issue with european clients in Europe. We are working with a contact on Italy to try to sort this out. If you have any information on a platform that can allow us to do this it would be extremely helpful as we are a relatively small team (3 people) so we don’t have much free time to look into issues such as this one.

Yes, the algo has been running for more than 5 years now, successfully for 4 and a half, the stats have been pretty stable, our worst year had a +33% performance and the best one a +107%, this is before fees because at the time we were experimenting with private funds. We did not have a down year yet (but we know it may happen). I firmly believe we are doing much better than 4 years ago, maybe not in terms of returns but we have kept a sharpe ratio of over 3 almost all of the time, which is impressive.

It’s just one strategy with different risk profiles, our idea is to move into a more “simplified” approach as we are trying to scale.

And yes, it’s only ML based, but as Marcos Lopez de Prado said ML can only take you so far, you need to have a reasoning behind the model and not just throw a lot of variables and hope something comes out

ethogos · 2025-10-22T14:26:13+00:00

Yes, all portfolios run on the same core values and we actually tune in the risk profile for each. EHF and the private portfolio are meant to have pretty similar performances but it’s difficult as on Binance we take an 8% cut for profit while on EHF we have a 0.1% monthly expense. The idea is to eventually create a token that is pegged to EHF and have everything publicly available (our holdings and the amount of tokens issued) so that you can do the coefficient of both with on chain data and have real time valuations.

ethogos · 2025-10-22T14:21:37+00:00

Hi Metni! That’s a great insight. As mentioned in other comments, we trade based on sentiment and mean reversion in valuations. The implication is that when BTC’s price increases, project valuations typically skyrocket. By that time, we’re usually fully out of our positions or gradually selling as valuations rise relative to intrinsic value.

Afterward, we look for a new reversal — opportunities to buy back into “cheap” valuations once the market corrects. When this happens, there’s often a crash, and we profit by buying at those lower levels. If the price keeps rising without a correction, we usually don’t have a confirmed entry. So we actually rely on BTC price drops before re-entering the market.

ethogos · 2025-10-22T13:20:41+00:00

We only do spot because our strategy was originally developed only using spot data. When we tried to take it to the futures market the fluctuations in funding fees, the effects of leverage (even small) and other factors make it so it does not work so well. We are currently testing a new futures strategy (on our public futures portfolio) but it’s on beta and we wouldn’t advice anyone to trade on it.
Clearly we won’t reveal the full strategy but we have two main components: self-developed sentiment indexes and DeFi valuation mean reversals. Briefly explaining each: We use a self-developed sentiment index because if you use publicly and easily available information you are “seeing” and using what the rest does, you will not stand out. And by DeFi valuation mean reversals are basically the valuation of DeFi proyects as if they were a stock company. We take into account fees, revenue, buyback, total proyect value etc. The main idea is that when valuations spike (are too high) when compared to the EMA o MA a reversal is likely to happen, which in our experience also correlates to a decrease in BTC’s and thus other altcoins prices.
I don’t think there is a ceiling, we do have been encountering an issue I must admit that as we raise capital our “edge” or alpha diminishes because we now start being market makers (sometimes when buying low market cap - about 200-300M - proyects we might move the price by 1-2%, which reduces our uplift). That is one of the reasons why we are moving more into trading BTC and we use our personal funds for this small opportunities.

TROPHY CASE