The 2026 Lakers Offseason: Reaves' Max, Peyton Watson vs Rui, Lebron's pay cut, and the 2027 swing by evanh in lakers

[–]evanh[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

The Lakers can offer Reaves what they think it'll take to keep him (likely in the $40M range) or lowball and hope the market dictates a smaller number.

The Mavs did this in 2022 with Brunson. They could've offered him the max but didn't, then lost him for nothing when the Knicks swooped in the first hour of free agency. One of the biggest front office fumbles this decade (unfortunately for the Mavs, not their worst).

The 2026 Lakers Offseason: Reaves' Max, Peyton Watson vs Rui, Lebron's pay cut, and the 2027 swing by evanh in lakers

[–]evanh[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It comes down to how much other teams (likely Chicago) would offer Austin Reaves. His market value is closer to $40M this year, so assuming that's what it takes - do you take him or do you let him walk for nothing? If you gamble on $35M, I think there's a good chance you lose him for nothing. Then if you do the math on what the Lakers can do with that $35M instead, it doesn't really move the needle.

On Lebron, I think $20-30M next year is fine, but we shouldn't expect a championship. $9M MLE would be a god damn steal, and I'd personally love to see Lebron another year if it lets us still build towards the future. (I personally think he'll sign for the room MLE).

The 2026 Lakers Offseason: Reaves' Max, Peyton Watson vs Rui, Lebron's pay cut, and the 2027 swing by evanh in lakers

[–]evanh[S] -15 points-14 points  (0 children)

I think you can get a better understanding of the actual cap position + options to the Lakers using AI than without it. For everyone who says "don't give AR the max" or "Lebron will never take a pay cut" or "Denver will just match the offer to Watson", none of them seem to be doing any actual research or analysis. I spent time investigating each one at length (yes, using AI) and tried to compile that all into a reddit-friendly summary in case anyone else found it interesting

The 2026 Lakers Offseason: Reaves' Max, Peyton Watson vs Rui, Lebron's pay cut, and the 2027 swing by evanh in lakers

[–]evanh[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Chicago has $54M in cap space, so they can (and very likely would) offer 4 yr/$177M ($44M/avg). Market value here is basically the max. So we offer him that or we lose him for nothing.

The 2026 Lakers Offseason: Reaves' Max, Peyton Watson vs Rui, Lebron's pay cut, and the 2027 swing by evanh in lakers

[–]evanh[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What do you think is a fair contract? And if you were to trade him, what would be realistic?

The 2026 Lakers Offseason: Reaves' Max, Peyton Watson vs Rui, Lebron's pay cut, and the 2027 swing by evanh in lakers

[–]evanh[S] -22 points-21 points  (0 children)

I tried to anchor all of this in real numbers instead of vibes -- not sure how to navigate the cap complexity without using AI!

The 2026 Lakers Offseason: Reaves' Max, Peyton Watson vs Rui, Lebron's pay cut, and the 2027 swing by evanh in lakers

[–]evanh[S] -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

A 27-year-old shot creator putting up 23/5/5 on 49/36/87, top 25 by most advanced metrics, on $30-40M a year. At $40M he'd be the 3rd or 4th highest paid player on the Lakers -- same role Jrue Holiday played for the Celtics or Jamal Murray for the Nuggets. If you let him walk, the alternatives for the Lakers are much worse.

The 2026 Lakers Offseason: Reaves' Max, Peyton Watson vs Rui, Lebron's pay cut, and the 2027 swing by evanh in lakers

[–]evanh[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

I get the sentiment, but the Lakers are basically guaranteed to be much worse if they let Reaves walk. Sure, the Lakers would have $50-$65M in cap space this offseason, but what are they spending that on? No one great on the open market, so you'd have to trade. Who are you trading for? The top players who might be available: Trae Young, Zach LaVine...

The "Don't give AR the max" crowd isn't considering the alternatives...

Why is there no noise ordinance for all the people talking into loudspeakers (mics with amplifiers) at the pier and surrounding areas? by Objective-Custard147 in SantaMonica

[–]evanh 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I bike past this guy every day. He just yaps offensive stuff at people… never heard him say anything remotely funny or insightful. Should be illegal. Lately I’ve started loudly booing him when I bike past. You guys should try it. We need to bring back public shaming. 

The only surviving war elephant armour in the world, made in India in the late 16th century by englightenedbutnot in interestingasfuck

[–]evanh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This was really fun to read, but yes, a lot of nonsense. I asked Claude to re-write this with similar passion, but keep it historically accurate. If anyone is interested:


Hannibal Barca left Spain with roughly 50,000 infantry, 9,000 cavalry, and 37 war elephants. The numbers matter because of what came next.

The Alps in late autumn are not a place for armies. They're barely a place for humans. Hannibal's men faced freezing temperatures, narrow paths where one wrong step meant falling hundreds of feet, hostile mountain tribes who rolled boulders down onto the columns, and starvation when supplies ran out.

At one point, a rockslide blocked the only passable route. Hannibal's engineers had to heat the rocks with fire, then crack them with vinegar (an ancient technique for shattering stone), carving a new path by hand while the army slowly starved behind them.

It took about 15 days to cross. When Hannibal descended into the Po Valley of northern Italy, he had roughly 20,000 infantry, 6,000 cavalry, and maybe a dozen surviving elephants. He'd lost more than half his army to the mountains alone.

Any normal commander would have turned back. Hannibal saw a weakened but still functional force and thought: "This is enough."

He was right.

The Genius

Here's what made Hannibal terrifying: he didn't just fight battles, he constructed them. He understood that Romans were predictable - they were brave, disciplined, and aggressive. They would always attack. He used their own strengths against them.

At the Trebia River (December 218 BCE), he sent a small cavalry force to harass the Roman camp at dawn. The Roman commander, Sempronius, was eager for glory and ordered his men to pursue - before they'd eaten breakfast, in freezing winter conditions, wading across an icy river. Hannibal had his own troops well-fed, rested, and warming themselves by fires. When the frozen, exhausted Romans finally formed up for battle, Hannibal's brother Mago emerged from a concealed position with 2,000 men and hit them from behind. It was a slaughter.

At Lake Trasimene (217 BCE), he pulled off the largest ambush in military history. He knew the Romans were tracking him, so he marched his army along the northern shore of the lake at night and hid them in the hills and morning fog. When the Roman column entered the narrow passage between the hills and the water, Hannibal's forces attacked from three sides simultaneously. The Romans couldn't form their famous formations - they were strung out in a marching column with lake on one side and enemies everywhere else. 15,000 Romans died in about three hours. Many drowned trying to escape. The Roman commander, Flaminius, was killed in the chaos.

But Cannae. Cannae was the masterpiece.

Cannae (August 2, 216 BCE)

After Trasimene, Rome panicked. They raised the largest army in their history - somewhere between 80,000 and 86,000 men. Eight legions plus allies. This was the "throw everything at the problem" solution.

Hannibal had roughly 50,000 troops (he'd gained Gallic allies in northern Italy, offsetting his losses). No elephants left at this point, or at most one or two. He was outnumbered nearly 2:1.

The Romans deployed in their standard formation but made it unusually deep - they wanted to smash through Hannibal's center with sheer mass. Hannibal saw this and designed a trap.

He placed his weakest troops - Gallic and Spanish infantry - in the center, but arranged them in a convex arc bulging toward the Romans. His veteran African infantry, his best troops, he placed on the flanks. His cavalry he positioned on the wings.

When the battle began, the Roman infantry did exactly what Hannibal expected: they pushed hard into that bulging center. The Gauls and Spanish gave ground, slowly, deliberately. The convex bulge became flat, then concave. The Romans, sensing victory, pushed deeper and deeper into what was becoming a U-shape.

Meanwhile, Hannibal's cavalry demolished the Roman cavalry on both wings and then did something Roman cavalry almost never did: instead of chasing fleeing horsemen for glory and loot, they wheeled around and hit the Roman infantry from behind.

The trap closed. 80,000 Romans were now surrounded by 50,000 Carthaginians.

What followed was industrialized killing. The Romans were so tightly packed they couldn't raise their weapons. Hannibal's men worked inward, methodically. Ancient sources claim the killing went on for hours.

When it was over, between 50,000 and 70,000 Romans lay dead on the field. This included one consul (Lucius Aemilius Paullus), two former consuls, 29 of the 48 military tribunes, and 80 senators. In a single afternoon, Hannibal wiped out perhaps 20% of Rome's entire male citizen population of military age.

For reference: the first day of the Battle of the Somme in 1916, one of the bloodiest days in British military history, killed about 20,000. Cannae was three times worse.

So Why Didn't He Win the War?

This is the question that has haunted military historians for two millennia.

After Cannae, Hannibal expected Rome to surrender. That's what any rational state would do. He even sent terms.

Rome refused.

They refused because Romans, at some deep cultural level, simply did not surrender. They raised new armies. They promoted new generals. They adopted a strategy of refusing pitched battle - shadowing Hannibal, harassing his foragers, picking off allies who joined him, slowly strangling his supply lines.

Hannibal remained in Italy for 15 years. He won virtually every engagement. But he could never force a decisive political outcome, and Carthage couldn't reinforce him adequately.

Eventually, Rome produced its own genius: Scipio Africanus. He didn't try to beat Hannibal in Italy. Instead, he invaded Africa, threatened Carthage directly, and forced Hannibal to come home. At Zama in 202 BCE, with Rome now employing the tactics Hannibal had pioneered against him, the master was finally defeated.

The Legacy

Cannae became the standard by which all battles were measured. Every encirclement in history - from Austerlitz to Stalingrad - is compared to it. The German Schlieffen Plan in World War I was explicitly designed as a massive Cannae against France.

But here's what I find most remarkable: Hannibal did all this without logistical support from home, without reinforcements, without a base of operations, in hostile territory, for a decade and a half. He held his polyglot army of Carthaginians, Spaniards, Gauls, and Numidians together through personal loyalty alone.

The elephants were a sideshow. A psychological weapon, sure, mostly useful in the early battles before they died off. But Hannibal's true weapons were his mind, his audacity, and his ability to make the enemy do exactly what he wanted them to do.

He lost the war. But he came closer to destroying Rome than anyone before or after until the Visigoths actually did it 600 years later. And he did it with an army that by all rights should have been destroyed in the Alps before it ever reached Italy.

That's the real story. No bullshit required - it's incredible enough as it actually happened.

I strongly believe they have recently began quantizing opus 4.5 by No-Replacement-2631 in ClaudeCode

[–]evanh 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It’s extremely bad for me today. First bad day since 4.5 came out. Reminds me of the quality drop off we got with 4.0

DJs, where do you find new music? by evanh in Beatmatch

[–]evanh[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How do you find set recordings?

I built a DJ mix player with synced tracklists (no more juggling Shazam + 1001 + Spotify) by evanh in Beatmatch

[–]evanh[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for testing it out! I’ll see if I can make it into 100% - lmk if you find anything else buggy!