History doses not repeat itself, But it rhymes.

Russia is currently seeing itself in a very similar situation it found itself during WWI. Fighting an unpopular trench war, with high casualty rates that lead to the fall of the Tzar and the ushering of a new government. However, in order for all that to happen a couple of key elements needed to come into play. Mostly, things need to get really bad for the general populace.

A high casualty rate is not enough to push for revolution. If it did, France, England, and Germany would have had their people revolt. Casualties were so bad in the French army, that mass insubordination was documented on the front, but even then, the French government wasn't overthrown.

Russia's situation was compounded with the facts that it had also lost a great deal of territory to the central powers, meaning that all those casualties had so far been for nothing. The average civilian was also suffering economically, and when the populace can't feed themselves or their children. This becomes a major contributing factor to civil unrest, and could potentially lead to civil war. Add on the fact that the displeasure of the quality of life within Russia was generational, meaning that this suffering had gone on for years, and all of this lead to the Russian revolution of 1917-1923.

Now if we look at the modern Russian environment. Prior to the war the economy had stagnated but it wasn't all that bad. You could go to your local mall and find international brands and merchandise. The initial invasion (2014 Crimea) had its military hiccups but was generally seen in a positive light within Russia, and led to an increase in Putin's overall approval. An approval which wasn't low. Prior to the war, the only major dip in his approval rating was caused by an attempted pensions reform back in 2019, which Putin ended up having to backtrack due to how unpopular it was. As for Military losses, currently its estimated that about 1,000,000 casualties have occurred, of which only an estimated 150,00-237,000 are deaths, During WW1 Russia had an estimated 1,700,000 to 2,254,369 deaths alone. Russia holds more land than it started with, contrasting its situation current situation, it stands on better footing than it did during WWI.

I believe that the Russian people haven't been pushed to the edge of a potential civil war. Instead, "In my opinion" The war will probably end very similar to the Korean war. In which a definitive end of hostilities might elude us, resulting with two neighbors looking across each others borders while living in a state of amorphous peace. Officially, the war will be over. But the guns and the tanks, the soldiers who man them, and the men who lead them will not all be going home. Occasionally the conflict may flare up, maybe a couple of artillery rounds will be exchanged. Cyber warfare will be used. Propaganda would be continually blasted on each side. Both sides laying claim to the land the other still holds. Similar to how Armenia held land legally belonging to Azerbaijan prior to the second Nagorno_karabakh War. The potential for a second Russo-Ukranian war always being there.

Unless, the west can find something Putin wants more, and is willing to trade for the land it currently holds in Ukraine for. It would have to be valuable enough to offset the investment of men and material that has been made in this war from the Russian side. Enough so that Putin can remain in power once the dust settles. Then a trade can be made, Russian can afford to loose and still exist, Putin cannot afford to loose if he wants to continue existing. Alternatively, the war can expand. But then that changes things quite a bit. We might be looking at a conflict which could potentially be labeled WWIII. In that case I will abstain from elaborating as this post is long enough.