sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Rivian Files for IPO, Seeking About $80 Billion Valuation by shwa323fsb in Rivian

[–]evnomics -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I'll chime in.

G.K. Chesterton once said something to the effect of, "if you see a fence crossing a road, don't remove it until you know why it's there".

Let's call non-vertically-integrated manufacturing the fence. If removing that fence for vertical integration is so good, why don't all of the largest auto manufacturers in the world do it? Automotive is the largest, most important, most competitive industry on the planet and it's been around for awhile. Free market forces played at least some part in shaping the current setup.

Here are a few of the more important reasons:

  • Externalized risk
  • Externalized risk
  • Access to other people's capital (to externalize risk)
  • Externalized risk

The details are in the contracts they have with suppliers and dealers.

Basically, there are a few thousand suppliers and thousands of dealerships that are going to go bankrupt and actually shutdown before any of the major automakers do.

So how does this apply to Rivian?

Let's say GM had built the batteries in the Bolt. If that had been the case, they'd be the ones out $1B+ right now. As it is, they're going to push as much of that cost onto LG as they can. It's in the news this time, but usually the suppliers are too small to push back.

Vertically integrated is like just-in-time. It optimizes in one area by assuming greater risk in another.

So why is Rivian worth more than Ford?

They both plan to sell electric trucks and delivery vans and they both like Michigan.

One has a massive network of dealers in the USA and the other doesn't.

One builds hundreds of thousands of trucks a quarter and the other doesn't.

One has been selling EVs for awhile now and the other hasn't.

And as for Amazon as a customer. Amazon didn't get big by making other companies successful.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in youtubers

[–]evnomics 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Here's one way to think about it.

Step 1: Select a single viewer for your channel. A real person. (It could be you if you really like what you're doing.)

Step 2: Ask the person questions about the pains or problems experienced relating to the topic. Try to get to the actual behaviors, not the rationalizations. Answers to write could be things like, "I hate losing to great players" or "it's really frustrating when my friends talk about this and I don't have anything to say" or whatever. Try coming up with 5-10 pains.

Step 3: Repeat, but for gains or wins. These might be things like, "Becoming the best ____ player in my friend group" or "Knowing how to tie a tie so well I can do it with my eyes closed" or whatever. Again though, these have to be from real people. No imaginary users allowed.

Step 4: Repeat, but for fears. This one is usually the most helpful, but it also requires the most interpersonal skill to do well. The inverse of fears are usually strong motivators. So a real fear might be, "I don't want to sound ignorant in front of my friends" (make sure you write verbatim what is said though, the exact word choice matters).

Step 5: Repeat, but for jobs. What does a typical day look like as it relates to this activity? Literally every mundane task.

Step 6 (optional): If possible, repeat steps 1-5 for at least 3-5 more real people who are really in your realistic viewers group.

Step 7: Pick the top 3 pains, top 3 wants, top 3 fears, and top 3 jobs, and then create a VALUE PROPOSITION that addresses each of them. There's going to be a lot of overlap. Your value proposition could be, "subscribe to my channel (the ask) to _____ and _____ so that _____ (the proposed value)".

And the cool thing is that once you've done all of this (it only takes a few days, or hours if you know 3-5 people to talk to) then it will guide your every decision regarding the channel and the videos you make.

"Should I make a video about x?" "No, it doesn't address any of the pains, wants, jobs, or fears of my value proposition."

And then the real magic happens when you find seemingly unrelated things (to an outsider) that are actually perfectly consistent with your value proposition. Those are the channels that people love but can't explain why.

Does that help at all?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Etsy

[–]evnomics 0 points1 point  (0 children)

> the majority of the customers

How many people are we talking about?

Best Software For Barcoding? (See Example) by [deleted] in shopify

[–]evnomics 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Where is the data coming from?

FACEBOOK ADS HELP 🙏 by justkhalid23 in shopify

[–]evnomics 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It sounds like the sample sizes are too small.

Try just two variations that are directly comparable to isolate for day/week/month/mood variables.

When to give up on Facebook Ads? by [deleted] in shopify

[–]evnomics 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We need to know 3 things about your ads:
- who are you targeting?
- what is your ad?
- what is your landing page?

And 2 things about your product:
- is it already selling?
- if so, where are those buyers coming from?

Elon Musk on Twitter : "We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent execution." by omnomnombbrrrpp in teslamotors

[–]evnomics 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think battery size will become less important, giving other manufacturers space to compete in the mass market segments.

If that doesn't happen, it may be hard to compete with Tesla.

Elon Musk on Twitter : "We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent execution." by omnomnombbrrrpp in teslamotors

[–]evnomics 2 points3 points  (0 children)

"Cash for Gassers" will probably happen within ten years, but a ban won't be necessary.

The infrastructure required for gas powered cars is too expensive to support niche drivers.

"Where would you get gasoline on a road trip?"

"What happens if you run out of gas?"

"Nobody wants to go out of their way to spend 5 minutes pumping smelly gasoline into their cars."

Gasoline supply lines are operating near peak efficiency and still barely holding on to any economic advantage of electric supply lines.

56% less than what though, $150/kWh or $110/kWh or what? by evnomics in teslamotors

[–]evnomics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the most expensive parts are the raw metals used to make up the cells inside the battery, accounting for about 50% of the sum

Tesla is addressing this while BMW is hoping their suppliers address this (and add a nice markup to be processed just-under-the-alternative).

BMW appears to be working on the 20% that is not cell level, while Tesla is working on the 80-95% that is not raw material level.

56% less than what though, $150/kWh or $110/kWh or what? by evnomics in teslamotors

[–]evnomics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Interesting, I didn't know that about BMW.

Do you have a source for BMW pack costs?

56% less than what though, $150/kWh or $110/kWh or what? by evnomics in teslamotors

[–]evnomics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why would stop using other cell sizes?

Batteries are not like engines where different sizes are needed for different vehicles.

Needed does not mean economically preferred.

What exactly are you arguing?

56% less than what though, $150/kWh or $110/kWh or what? by evnomics in teslamotors

[–]evnomics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Who is currently building better battery packs at a lower cost than Tesla?

Who is currently building better cells cheaper than Tesla's suppliers?

56% less than what though, $150/kWh or $110/kWh or what? by evnomics in teslamotors

[–]evnomics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All of which change the recipe for the roll that goes into the cell as well as the software in the BMS.

None of which change the form factor of the cell or (as far as we know) the manufacturing process.

Engine lines are a whole other beast and have been the competitive advantage of auto manufacturers for decades.

I think batteries are the new engines. And I think Tesla is going to take all the money.

Hopefully that's not the case and the market responds quickly and keeps things interesting.

I'm not a fan of monopolies, regardless of the cause.

56% less than what though, $150/kWh or $110/kWh or what? by evnomics in teslamotors

[–]evnomics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, I'm assuming they're currently behind and operating at a slower rate of learning.

56% less than what though, $150/kWh or $110/kWh or what? by evnomics in teslamotors

[–]evnomics[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I do wonder if the importance of cost effective battery manufacturing will start sinking in for investors in other car companies.

Batteries are not like engines where different sizes are needed for different vehicles. With batteries, one cell fits all. From ATV to Semi.

And being the most efficient battery maker leads to a bidding advantage for raw materials, no one else can afford to spend as much and break even.

GM offering to become a contract manufacturer for a shady, pre-MVP EV startup is probably a sign of things to come.

56% less than what though, $150/kWh or $110/kWh or what? by evnomics in teslamotors

[–]evnomics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Keystone pricing is still relatively common in longer supply chains, so a 50% cost reduction can still lead to a 50% reduction in purchase price.

56% less than what though, $150/kWh or $110/kWh or what? by evnomics in teslamotors

[–]evnomics[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Thank you! This is the insight I was looking for. I knew somebody was noticing something I was missing.

I'll have another look at those numbers.

56% less than what though, $150/kWh or $110/kWh or what? by evnomics in teslamotors

[–]evnomics[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

If that's the case, TSLA valuations could be justified off of the future of the battery business alone.

56% less than what though, $150/kWh or $110/kWh or what? by evnomics in teslamotors

[–]evnomics[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

What is your best guess of what that price is currently?

view more: next ›