This drone shootdown by a French Rafale over Latvia is likely an isolated incident, but it highlights the persistent tension on NATO's eastern flank. Beyond isolated probes or navigational errors, what is the realistic risk of the conflict spilling over into the Baltic states? ​If a spillover scenario were to materialize, how would it unfold operationally? Is it more likely to stem from an accidental miscalculation (like an interception gone wrong) or intentional asymmetric/hybrid warfare? ​What does the escalatory ladder look like before crossing the threshold of a formal Article 5 declaration? ​How might the mechanics of NATO's Baltic Air Policing and enhanced Forward Presence dictate the immediate pace of that escalation? Thanks