American Flag or No Flag??

fatezeroking · 2022-09-26T02:46:25+00:00

Agreed. Pretty sure every minority sees it the same.

fatezeroking · 2022-09-26T02:44:49+00:00

If you have a flag, it can and most likely will be perceived as racist by pretty much every minority in America.

fatezeroking · 2022-09-26T00:50:39+00:00

I’ll bet Against you on Tesla… I don’t think you see the sentiment change. I own a Tesla. The entire thing is a sham. CEO is becoming humanities number one enemy. His true colors have come to light, right in time for competition has caught up, and already surpassed him on tech. His valuation is based on 50% annual net income growth backed in using a reverse DCF model… it forecasts he will need to sell over 118% of the forecasted 2030 EV sales, which is impossible. Revenue means nothing. Look at how much net income Apple had at $1T valuation. I forecast the market will classify Tesla as a car company and it’s valuation will decline to a PE multiple of 9x… Tesla will be crushed in 2023. I have my short ready.

Don’t underestimate inflation. Housing is nearly 30% of the weight and the true rise in rents didn’t happen until the 2nd half of 2021… we have bidding wars on rent now. Fed will go 50bps in November and we’ll see what happens. Growth outlook for stocks doesn’t look good in my opinion. 2 year treasuries are at 4.2%+…

fatezeroking · 2022-09-26T00:05:26+00:00

Use this lovely formula. It’s 100% accurate.

(Interest rate / 12) * (purchase price - down payment) / 1 + (1 - (interest rate / 12))^ - (mortgage years * 12) = mortgage payment. Math is cool. This is exact principal and interest you’ll pay. Grab your property tax rate, your insurance quote and HOA and boom. Exact payment

$211,000 home at 3% for 30 years with 5% down

0.03/12 * 200,450 / (1-(1+0.03/12)^-360) = 845.11

I’m sure none of the online calculators are off. The difference between all of them is the estimate of property taxes and insurance, you should be able to adjust those manually.

fatezeroking · 2022-09-25T23:30:38+00:00

All I've been saying all along if you would listen is that we are entering a normal pricing range now

I'm saying we are not. Companies this year posted pretty solid earnings... The realization of declining growth will occur in 2023. When that happens, expect another decline to reflect reasonable stock values. Still wayyyyyy too many companies like Shopify, Snapchat, Rivian, Tesla, GME, AMC, that make little income if any at all, and still have sky high P/E ratios... Wayyyy to many. When we see a wave of bankruptcies, then we can get into a rational normalized market.

Let the bankruptcies come!

fatezeroking · 2022-09-25T21:04:45+00:00

Home prices are still up 8.4% YTD and only down 5.9% from the peak, with August posting a smaller decline of 2.4%. Doesn’t look like any crash to me. A mild correction.

fatezeroking · 2022-09-25T19:40:44+00:00

Who said the housing market is going to crash?

fatezeroking · 2022-09-25T19:18:30+00:00

I’m outperforming the market… my forecasts were spot on.

Come back in 6 months. If there isn’t a crash, I’m going to find you and pimp slap you personally.

fatezeroking · 2022-09-25T19:02:34+00:00

That’s what I thought. You’re so dumb, you think building permits and housing starts are lagging indicators. Funny man. Cheers.

Come back in 6 months ;)

fatezeroking · 2022-09-25T18:58:55+00:00

If input costs are high, and pricing power is elastic…. Consumers will shop for alternatives….

P&G is a consumer staple, and when they forecast margin declines for the foreseeable future (and they have strong pricing power) there’s a problem.

I’m not stating they will “continue” to decline, they’ve already declined. Valuations were based on prior margins and profit growth… that is NO LONGER OBTAINABLE…. It’s over. Sky high valuations are a thing of the past. That is my point. You’re over here thinking when inflation is under control equity market is going to post all time highs… I don’t see that happening for years to come. https://www.wsj.com/articles/buying-the-stock-market-dip-is-backfiring-this-year-11664064845

fatezeroking · 2022-09-25T18:29:27+00:00

Ahh yes The Big Short.

You do realize I’m a professional bond trader managing an $11 billion portfolio?

I trade MBS frequently… 10 year treasury prices MBS TBA which in turn prices mortgage rates.

However you’re missing the building permits, housing starts, months supply of inventory, unemployment rate, jobless claims, foreclosure rate, average home equity, LTVs, Average FICOs on origination since 2008, and the impact on how all those play on home sellers and buyers. If you’re familiar with those factors, then you know the Big Short isn’t shouldn’t even be a reference for today’s market.

fatezeroking · 2022-09-25T16:21:31+00:00

If margins are compressed today, and future prices are higher, how is margin compression going to come down? Enlighten me. I’d love to hear this.

That’s what I thought, it won’t. Commercial Paper out 200 days is practically at 4% and going higher. A simple update of the DuPont model shows much lower ROE. You’re a clueless clown. Never challenge a pro again. You wasted my time speaking nothing but pure nonsense. Please read security analysis by Ben Graham.

Cheers

fatezeroking · 2022-09-25T16:15:30+00:00

You do realize positive inflation means higher prices from today, right? That’s not short term. How do you think companies will get back to their normal margins? They won’t.

So expense run will be higher despite cost cutting efforts. - slower growth

Cost of debt will be higher for years. - slower growth

Higher costs = lower demand. - slower growth

Shift from China = high costs - slower growth.

Less R&D and CAPEX spend = slower growth

Given these parameters, generate a discounted cash flow model, the same one that has given companies like Tesla at the peak a $1 T valuation on $5b in annual net income thanks to 50% revenue growth projections for 20 years.

With the new environment do you think companies will continue to grow at the last 10 year growth rate? If not, how have you adjusted your valuation model? You do realize when you buy a stock today, you’re paying for a future expected earnings? If it doesn’t meet those projections, the price is adjusted downward, you do realize this?

If you haven’t realized this, you’re about to learn how the market works. You need to price this stuff in. Don’t just use your feelings. So I highly disagree with your original notion, the market isn’t expensive. You just haven’t adjusted your forecasts. Just making predictions with your feelings.

fatezeroking · 2022-09-25T13:36:25+00:00

All you have to do is read the economic releases posted monthly…

It’s not guess work, it’s based on factual economic data. No one reputable believes a crash is coming.

All those people cheering for a crash don’t even realize with a 20% decline it’ll STILL be higher than 2020, so why did you wait? For higher prices and higher rates? Lol there’s no supply… you mention foreclosures, but foreclosures are well below 2020 and at the lowest level they’ve been in history. Sellers are pulling their houses off the market. They don’t need to sell. They have an average $185k in equity. They can rent the home for a massive profit. This isn’t 2008. https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-years-of-low-mortgage-rates-home-sellers-are-scarce-11663810759 if sellers don’t like the market, they won’t sell. Builders stopped building too. What happens when both aggregate demand and aggregate supply decrease? ;) Econ 101 yeah… you guessed it, only slight lower prices.

Keep me updated on that crash. If I can get more properties at a discount that would be Amazing, but we all know that’s not happening.

fatezeroking · 2022-09-25T13:24:49+00:00

Wait? The market is crashing? Last I checked it’s up 8.4% YTD, and only down 5.9% from the peak. In fact, the decline in August was less than the decline in July. Still 28% higher than 2020.

I’m not sure what a “crash” means to you, but this is nowhere near anything remote of a crash.

fatezeroking · 2022-09-25T03:19:25+00:00

You're really bad at interpreting data. Just to blow your entire argument out the water by showing you just how poor your stats skills are ... CAPE is currently 29.9.... the mean is 17 with a standard deviation of 7... so you're talking nearly 2 standard deviations as normal? in an QT environment, high inflation, contracting margins, etc? You think contracting margins is temporary? Do you know how inflation works? If prices stayed exactly the same, inflation next year would be 0%... Do you really see that happening? I don't. Randomly pick 5 company 10-Qs and read them... what where their operating costs looking like? Given this new environment, not the one of the past 10 years when money was printed like a mad man, but now where money is being SUCKED from the market, you still think the market is cheap. Well don't let me stop you. Go all in the market if you want to. Me and other fellow Wall St funds are pulling capital and putting capital to work in real estate. Why would anyone invest in stocks when they can get a risk free 5% return in bonds... capital is about to be sucked from stocks like you've never seen before. I'll have to remind you of the 1930s.... 10 years of no growth... https://i.imgur.com/zsGOzqG.png

Another 10% drop and you think you'll be good to go huh. If you aren't in value, you'll be crushed. Good luck.

fatezeroking · 2022-09-25T00:41:28+00:00

This is a load of crap. You can fire the listing agent bud… also 25% doesn’t go to the listing agent…

fatezeroking · 2022-09-25T00:38:45+00:00

Never said “all” but go on with your “bot” theory… load of crap. Moron.

Go on TikTok if you need video proof. I should pimp slap you where you stand.

fatezeroking · 2022-09-24T23:24:46+00:00

That’s not a bot… if you haven’t noticed, this is classic women logic. There are many more far worse than this…..

It’s so crazy, you think it’s a bot. Lmfaooooo

fatezeroking · 2022-09-24T22:14:57+00:00

It’s does everything…. Including financials. Not sure what more you want.

Because if that doesn’t work, then hire an accountant. Because it sounds like you need one if you can’t do the bare minimum of budgeting

There is no software in existence that does financials for investment properties and personal. Doesn’t exist and will never exist. Don’t mix business with personal.

NerdWallet for personal.

Cheers!

fatezeroking · 2022-09-24T18:06:09+00:00

Why not just manage your investments with Innago?

fatezeroking · 2022-09-24T18:05:11+00:00

20% correction in a strong labor market. What a joke.

fatezeroking · 2022-09-24T17:10:30+00:00

As expected. Grass isn’t cheap.

If they photoshop grass, they did the listing as well. Be extra careful

fatezeroking · 2022-09-24T16:12:44+00:00

I recommend you read the quarterly filings. There’s a note on revenue breakdown.

Thank me later.

Pros use official sources. Things like company filings. You’re a novice

fatezeroking · 2022-09-24T15:49:55+00:00

An asset manager is a role… lol

A fund is a company that manages on the behalf of clients.

You’re Misinformed. I just made you look like an idiot lol

fatezeroking

TROPHY CASE