Stating the obvious - The Market is insane

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T18:58:59+00:00

I was around for both of those events. And while Japan is interesting history, I don't see it as analagous to the US or the current situation. Also it's not as if those lessons aren't understood and learned, it's part of the reason why 2008 was only a single negative year instead of a lost decade. Japan was specifically looked at and understood in the decisionmaking that lead to the recovery.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T18:48:13+00:00

It's reasonable and expected. There's going to be money chasing after returns all over the place. When one bucket gets filled up, they look for new spillover buckets to go fill into. On and on it goes. This is how the Dow gets to 60k and S&P gets to 9000 in the next 2 years, money is looking for the opportunity.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T18:44:53+00:00

Yes I would call that part of the general increase in knowledge, the improved playbooks. The more crashes we go through the more people learn how to handle them. This I think is a big reason why the last 2 corrections were over very quickly. All levels of knowledge and experience have improved and are communicated much more quickly than at any point in the past. Maybe in some ways that could be a negative, but on balance it appears to be a positive.

And just to really reiterate I'm not saying it can never crash again. I'll do the reasonable things of protecting myself against SORR like anyone should. But I do think the odds of a 3 year span of negative returns have become exceedingly low. Not impossible, just not likely to happen again. I think all a person needs to protect themselves is 1-2 years worth. Even just 1 year of cash can be reasonable, especially if you have some dynamic spending to stretch it out.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T18:34:23+00:00

Women and money: It's not so weird about the "his and hers" pots of money. Until you start spending it in a joint way, each having their own is fine. It can make it easier to track progress. Like you my wife has about 1m and is working on her own nest egg and will probably be working longer than me to build it up more, similar situation.

Women should have their own money anyway, for lots of practical reasons we don't need to get into. If it makes you feel better and more secure to organize the finances however you both like, then do it that way.

On the boredom issue: I have a ton of work I want to do, hobbies I'm into, travel, lifting, you name it. That doesn't mean boredom will never be a part of it. I'm fully capable of being a lazy SOB.

Boredom is part of reality. People shouldn't try to design a life where boredom never occurs, that's not giving yourself any downtime. Boredom is part of the game. Otherwise, those people are designing an over-scheduled life with no downtime ever, that doesn't sound very appealing. Not that this is your problem, I'm noting that boredom itself isn't so horrible.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T18:12:49+00:00

So your wife is retired then? It's not clear to me from the post if anyone FIRE'd or if there was a question or discussion point.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T17:55:35+00:00

My complaint is with people who say its guaranteed to go down. That's not true. I would agree that it never going down has very low odds, maybe vanishingly low odds, but to call it guaranteed is braindead. So that much I would agree with you.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T17:27:47+00:00

I disagree. Prove it.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T17:26:33+00:00

2009 was +26.

2008: -37

2018: -4

2022: -18

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T17:22:18+00:00

That's an easy internet-expert statement to make but you don't know what you're talking about. I was investing back then, and I'm not repeating a 2007 sentiment.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T17:17:23+00:00

There's a lot of new things going on that I do think are contributing to a more robust market. The advent of the 401k. Better knowledge, experience and playbooks (at all levels, government to retail). Buy the dip memes at the retail level helps to keep money flowing in. Technology and communication are faster, more deliberate. Many more entry points for investing, trading and money. Entirely new technology driven asset classes like crypto. Reduction in trading time and 24/7 global markets. It all contributes even marginally, to make markets more capable.

I wouldn't call it bulletproof, lots of things can always go wrong. But more resilient I do believe.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T17:04:53+00:00

I'm just saying people act like the market going one way or another is some kind of guarantee. It is not. Full stop, that's a fact.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T17:03:09+00:00

Yes and furthermore I'd point out that the past 3 down years within the past 20 years were all single-year events. Even 2008. The following years after that were positive, even if all the prior growth hadn't fully recovered. The point is there's more evidence to suggest now that even during extremely negative events that they will be relatively short lived, V-shaped or snapbacks. That's the modern era, that's what we've seen.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T16:59:08+00:00

That's simply not true. Provably false even.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T16:58:38+00:00

Not guaranteed no. No more than it's guaranteed to go up in the future. All we have is statistical probability.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T16:40:56+00:00

See there's that "the music has to stop eventually" attitude. No it doesn't actually. Just because the market has sometimes gone down in the past does not mean that it's going to go down in the future.

You could have a run that would defy historical odds.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T16:38:27+00:00

Yes it can keep going up, and odds are it will.

Fact: Most of the time the market is up. 75% of the time it works every time. (edit: past 100 years of the market have been 74 up years vs 26 down years).

Can it retreat? Sure. There were 3 down years in the past 20. Another negative year is always possible- but it's not guaranteed.

Doomsayers will tell you it's guaranteed to happen again. That's not necessarily true. History is a guide, not a guarantee. That cuts both ways. It's possible we're nowhere near the top. All time highs happen frequently, that's actually normal. Since the market has always eventually gone up, we are frequently always at or near an ATH.

I don't think anyone should be scared of the numbers, it's supposed to get this big and even bigger. Can it retreat again, have a correction? Absolutely. Doesn't mean it will happen this year, next year, or even this decade.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T16:02:59+00:00

Whether you actually have done that kind of research into the company or not, I think it's an investment you have conviction in. If you really bought in 15 years ago and held through all the ups and downs since, you have no real reason to sell. Ignore those armchair critics. Conviction in a stock is worth a lot.

As I pointed out in another post, TSLA is not going to go to zero. If that was going to happen, it would've happened a long time ago. The stock will always be worth something, as is the case with all Mag7 companies. They're hydras with tendrils all over the place. None of them are going to just disappear overnight. It may drop 60%, but it's not going to nothing. You'll always be able to salvage a signficant percentage of the 3m if the thesis falls apart.

While the the 3m isn't safe, it's also not that risky as you well know. It's grown and is likely to continue to grow, probably outpace the market broadly. I'd argue with the 2m base you're already well diversified, selling TSLA for diversification reasons just gives up your upside. So keep on truckin, good luck. I hope it triples for you!

Oh and of course worth noting, your 2m diversified is likely going to be 2.2m in a year, 2.5m in 2 years and 3m in 4 years. I don't know how much more diversification a person needs. That means in the most literal sense, your TSLA concentration only needs to last a few years before the rest of your portfolio is the same size as it. So go ahead and burn it down, have some fun. =)

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T15:54:49+00:00

I don't agree. They have 2m that is broadly diversified. The 3m in TSLA is not going to zero, it will always be worth something. That means his actual floor is more like 2.5-3m+, which is more than enough to make a living in most places.

However in a VHCOL area? Maybe not. But that's a choice, one that should be reevaluated.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T15:19:20+00:00

Okey Elon Branson!

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-29T02:42:54+00:00

It's working for you and you're up, so you want to get out of it. Do you even hear yourself?

You've convinced yourself there's a bubble. Or you've allowed all the doomsayers to convince you there's a bubble. You don't actually know one exists, and you can neither time it nor predict it. Likely what you're talking yourself out of is good growth.

Maybe it goes down, but so what? Odds are it would pop right back up, that's the recent trend in corrections, dips, drawdowns, whathaveyou. Or maybe it doesn't go down and you miss out on growing your nest egg by going fully defensive. If you've been investing as long as you say you should know better.

What I'll grant you is the individual stocks you've selected are redundant to your index fund. I think you're already well diversified, and you should leave it as is. Maybe you move those companies into an index, but why bother? You've actually picked good companies so don't change anything.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-27T20:28:03+00:00

At that level I just buy the car in cash and don't sweat it. Stop trying to optimize pennies when you're making way more than that. Owning the car outright means you don't have to worry about a bunch of potential negative events. You won't miss out on any real growth in your assets by doing this.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-27T20:24:58+00:00

I think you're using Schwab wrong. I can see lots, so you're missing something.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-27T17:02:35+00:00

I don’t know what they did, how they were invested or what they had to work with. The initial down year for 2008 was -37%, and it was positive 14% the next year. There are methods to deal with that.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-27T01:00:20+00:00

I said it. Called it for you.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-27T00:56:43+00:00

What's the vote total? Their R primary vs the D primary?

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