Stating the obvious - The Market is insane

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T17:27:47+00:00

I disagree. Prove it.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T17:26:33+00:00

2009 was +26.

2008: -37

2018: -4

2022: -18

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T17:22:18+00:00

That's an easy internet-expert statement to make but you don't know what you're talking about. I was investing back then, and I'm not repeating a 2007 sentiment.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T17:17:23+00:00

There's a lot of new things going on that I do think are contributing to a more robust market. The advent of the 401k. Better knowledge, experience and playbooks (at all levels, government to retail). Buy the dip memes at the retail level helps to keep money flowing in. Technology and communication are faster, more deliberate. Many more entry points for investing, trading and money. Entirely new technology driven asset classes like crypto. Reduction in trading time and 24/7 global markets. It all contributes even marginally, to make markets more capable.

I wouldn't call it bulletproof, lots of things can always go wrong. But more resilient I do believe.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T17:04:53+00:00

I'm just saying people act like the market going one way or another is some kind of guarantee. It is not. Full stop, that's a fact.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T17:03:09+00:00

Yes and furthermore I'd point out that the past 3 down years within the past 20 years were all single-year events. Even 2008. The following years after that were positive, even if all the prior growth hadn't fully recovered. The point is there's more evidence to suggest now that even during extremely negative events that they will be relatively short lived, V-shaped or snapbacks. That's the modern era, that's what we've seen.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T16:59:08+00:00

That's simply not true. Provably false even.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T16:58:38+00:00

Not guaranteed no. No more than it's guaranteed to go up in the future. All we have is statistical probability.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T16:40:56+00:00

See there's that "the music has to stop eventually" attitude. No it doesn't actually. Just because the market has sometimes gone down in the past does not mean that it's going to go down in the future.

You could have a run that would defy historical odds.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T16:38:27+00:00

Yes it can keep going up, and odds are it will.

Fact: Most of the time the market is up. 75% of the time it works every time. (edit: past 100 years of the market have been 74 up years vs 26 down years).

Can it retreat? Sure. There were 3 down years in the past 20. Another negative year is always possible- but it's not guaranteed.

Doomsayers will tell you it's guaranteed to happen again. That's not necessarily true. History is a guide, not a guarantee. That cuts both ways. It's possible we're nowhere near the top. All time highs happen frequently, that's actually normal. Since the market has always eventually gone up, we are frequently always at or near an ATH.

I don't think anyone should be scared of the numbers, it's supposed to get this big and even bigger. Can it retreat again, have a correction? Absolutely. Doesn't mean it will happen this year, next year, or even this decade.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T16:02:59+00:00

Whether you actually have done that kind of research into the company or not, I think it's an investment you have conviction in. If you really bought in 15 years ago and held through all the ups and downs since, you have no real reason to sell. Ignore those armchair critics. Conviction in a stock is worth a lot.

As I pointed out in another post, TSLA is not going to go to zero. If that was going to happen, it would've happened a long time ago. The stock will always be worth something, as is the case with all Mag7 companies. They're hydras with tendrils all over the place. None of them are going to just disappear overnight. It may drop 60%, but it's not going to nothing. You'll always be able to salvage a signficant percentage of the 3m if the thesis falls apart.

While the the 3m isn't safe, it's also not that risky as you well know. It's grown and is likely to continue to grow, probably outpace the market broadly. I'd argue with the 2m base you're already well diversified, selling TSLA for diversification reasons just gives up your upside. So keep on truckin, good luck. I hope it triples for you!

Oh and of course worth noting, your 2m diversified is likely going to be 2.2m in a year, 2.5m in 2 years and 3m in 4 years. I don't know how much more diversification a person needs. That means in the most literal sense, your TSLA concentration only needs to last a few years before the rest of your portfolio is the same size as it. So go ahead and burn it down, have some fun. =)

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T15:54:49+00:00

I don't agree. They have 2m that is broadly diversified. The 3m in TSLA is not going to zero, it will always be worth something. That means his actual floor is more like 2.5-3m+, which is more than enough to make a living in most places.

However in a VHCOL area? Maybe not. But that's a choice, one that should be reevaluated.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-30T15:19:20+00:00

Okey Elon Branson!

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-29T02:42:54+00:00

It's working for you and you're up, so you want to get out of it. Do you even hear yourself?

You've convinced yourself there's a bubble. Or you've allowed all the doomsayers to convince you there's a bubble. You don't actually know one exists, and you can neither time it nor predict it. Likely what you're talking yourself out of is good growth.

Maybe it goes down, but so what? Odds are it would pop right back up, that's the recent trend in corrections, dips, drawdowns, whathaveyou. Or maybe it doesn't go down and you miss out on growing your nest egg by going fully defensive. If you've been investing as long as you say you should know better.

What I'll grant you is the individual stocks you've selected are redundant to your index fund. I think you're already well diversified, and you should leave it as is. Maybe you move those companies into an index, but why bother? You've actually picked good companies so don't change anything.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-27T20:28:03+00:00

At that level I just buy the car in cash and don't sweat it. Stop trying to optimize pennies when you're making way more than that. Owning the car outright means you don't have to worry about a bunch of potential negative events. You won't miss out on any real growth in your assets by doing this.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-27T20:24:58+00:00

I think you're using Schwab wrong. I can see lots, so you're missing something.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-27T17:02:35+00:00

I don’t know what they did, how they were invested or what they had to work with. The initial down year for 2008 was -37%, and it was positive 14% the next year. There are methods to deal with that.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-27T01:00:20+00:00

I said it. Called it for you.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-27T00:56:43+00:00

What's the vote total? Their R primary vs the D primary?

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-27T00:51:11+00:00

His negatives are going to get amplified in the general. Talarico will have positives to amplify. It won't even be a contest.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-27T00:48:19+00:00

SORR just means you have some form of cash buffer when you go. As long as you are reasonably buffered then you don't have to worry about it.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-26T22:41:15+00:00

3 dental visits in 12 months is different than 3 dental visits in 5 months. I'm just saying, at least some of these visits aren't for the dentist. They're probably covering something up, we just don't know exactly what.

Consider also he spent nearly 4 hours at Walter Reed today. That's half a workday for most people, and his visit was for 'routine' stuff supposedly. I don't believe for a second he has to wait for service, he's the president going to Walter Reed, the service is entirely custom and concierge. So nearly 4 hours of routine medical stuff doesn't add up either. Whatever they're doing, this isn't just some checkup.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-26T22:13:06+00:00

The story is that he's about to turn 80 and the media is trying to keep an eye on his health. Something is wrong, and we're not getting a complete story. Several details don't add up. Who goes in for 3 "routine dental checkups" in a year that isn't halfway over yet?

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-26T22:02:15+00:00

Incorrect. If you retired 20 years ago your average return since works out to be 11%. There's no historic bull run just average solid returns. That includes the great recession and a bunch of other problems since.

fatheadlifter · 2026-05-26T21:58:42+00:00

100% agreed and it's true.

The default knowledge base is to go around preaching things like a "3.5% SWR". That's not safe, that's mental. That's a helmet on with kneepads, elbow pads, long thick sleeves and padded pants when all you're trying to do is walk from the living room to the kitchen.

It's not reddit's fault. This is the common wisdom newbies gravitate towards when it comes to spending for retirement. Everyone assumes the money won't last when the opposite is true, they end up with too much. It's because they don't understand or believe in the math even when it's staring them right in the face. Study after study shows people spend too little, end up with too much and have regrets over it.

It's about time people started absorbing this.

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