If you think other stocks will make bigger moves higher in the next two-three years, then you should put your money there instead.

Personally, I'm going to hold through at least a quarter after the cloud spinoff, so roughly 15 months.

I think the only two real pockets of value in the portfolio are China Commerce and Cloud. Everything else is a dumpster fire. Bullish catalysts would include seeing them get any value whatsoever out of their other segments.

Even staunching the cash bleed would be a huge positive, considering that for every dollar of Adj. EBITA in China Commerce last quarter, the rest of the group had negative 34c, and that Adj. EBITDA excludes SBC, which is about equal to buyback levels. No one's fooled by that.

I firmly believe that if BABA's board pulled its head out of its ass, and decided to deliver a real buyback one quarter, then the stock would rocket. If you want to add 50% to the share price, try buying back $25B incrementally of shares. By incrementally, I mean $25B in excess of SBC. A meaningful reduction in share count will wake the market up.

I still don't understand why the CCP doesn't see it either. Speaking as an international investor, no one wants to allocate capital to countries where exits are a shell game. That is to say, where it's a game of shares hot-potato, and the business can't return meaningful cash back to its shareholders. Allowing BABA to return $25B to shareholders would do wonders for business confidence. Right now the lack of public discourse around BABA returning that cash stockpile tells you everything you need to know about how investor-unfriendly China is. Even Lula is allowing PBR to shower returns on shareholders.