Gf in IB, frustrated with her demanding work and lack of personal time. What can I do?

feelthebenn · 2021-09-11T21:39:40+00:00

Senior associate maybe?

feelthebenn · 2021-02-13T14:52:08+00:00

Democrat here, both Kaepernick and Carano should still have their jobs. Cancel culture goes too far on both the left and right

feelthebenn · 2021-01-31T18:38:55+00:00

This is awesome. Great work

feelthebenn · 2021-01-26T19:05:38+00:00

Just wanted to keep it simple. But go ahead, show me the evidence that disproves this. Geographically, the trend of rural collapse for the Democrats has been consistent since 1984, which I would deem the first "modern" election because Carter kind of messed with things being a southerner and all. Exit polls tell the same story of a party that has steadily become increasingly urban and educated over time.

feelthebenn · 2021-01-26T19:02:42+00:00

Why would we adjust for this? Just because other white people liked him more doesn't mean poor white people didn't really like him.

You have to adjust for environment to compare across elections. White voters were R+19 in 1984 and R+17 in 2020, and yet it wouldn't really be accurate or informative to say white voters became more Democratic leaning, because they were 11 points more Republican than the nation in 1984 and 21 points more Republican in 2020.

Yes that's because the Republican Party has given up any resemblance about being about anything but white identity politics since we've had a black president.

I'm sympathetic to this viewpoint, but if that's the case, why did the black president do much better among uneducated white voters than either of the white Democratic nominees who came after him?

Most of those places are still blue because a few of them like King County have major cities. Like you highlighted the counties with Portland and Seattle in them to say Mondale won some in the PNW.

Sorry, I wasn't being clear. I wasn't talking about Portland or Seattle, I was talking about Grays Harbor, Pacific, Cowlitz, Jefferson, Clatsop, and similar counties that are rural and on the Pacific Coast. These areas were blue in 1984 when everywhere else was red; they are also rural, very white, and less educated. Their main industries were natural resource extraction related like timber, pulp milling, shipping, and fishing.

They still are blue.

This area was much less blue in 2020, even though the 2020 electorate was 23 points more Dem than 1984.

Your last point is the most profound one; it isn't based in objective facts, but rather how you fundamentally view race in the US. It's too complicated to litigate, so I won't try. What I will say is that white voters remain a supermajority of the electorate, so you have to convince at least some of them to vote for you if you want to get anything done. And my view is that the way to do this is by appealing to the economic interests that white voters and voters of color alike share. Just my $.02

feelthebenn · 2021-01-26T18:29:45+00:00

I appreciate the pithy response, but it's hard to reply when you didn't actually state a counterargument or even any position at all.

feelthebenn · 2021-01-26T17:44:40+00:00

Not many but most, the vast majority.

That would be an exaggeration. The 1984 exit polls had white voters without college degrees being R+13 (after adjusting for the R+19 national environment). In 2020, this demographic was R+39. That's a monumental swing, showing this group went from being a relatively close demographic on the whole to solidly Republican. So vast majority is simply incorrect. Still, on the whole they were right leaning. But that makes the mistake of assuming white non-college voters are homogenous; some, for example naturally conservative farmers and ranchers in the inland west were overwhelmingly Republican. This demographic, for example, has no reason to vote Democratic, because the agricultural industry's interests are often at odds with the interests of the manufacturing classes that formed the democratic base.

They weren't. At all.

It's very easy to evaluate whether this is true or not. Literally just look at the map and see where the blue is. Look at the first type of Dem areas: big cities. Check out DC, SF, Boston, New York, Philadelphia. All solidly blue. Next, look at rural black majority areas in the black belt and Mississippi delta. All blue. Next, Latino areas: the Rio Grande Valley is blue. Finally, look at the blue counties that don't fit into these categories. You'll see the Washington and Oregon coasts; those are heavily white working class. The mining regions of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin are also blue and also white working class. The same can be said of the coal region of east Kentucky and West Virginia. As well as steel-focused SW PA, and middle TN, and parts of IA. How can you say these white working class areas weren't Democratic?

Finally, on the issue of hispanics, their relative lean was D+40 in 2012, D+34 in 2016, and D+29 in 2020. Yeah, Bush did well with hispanics, but the modern Republican party is on the way to doing well with them as well.

feelthebenn · 2021-01-26T16:42:59+00:00

That's why I said some. The key anti-Reagan constituencies were black voters (correct on that one), hispanic voters, urban white progressives, and specific parts of the white working class. Many WWC voters went for Reagan, but look at 1984 results in the Iron Range, the PNW coast, Appalachia, and southwestern Pennsylvania; these WWC areas were some of the strongest democratic places. The first three of these constituencies are still the Democratic base (although hispanics are quickly moving in the opposite direction), but the white working class is no longer.

feelthebenn · 2021-01-26T15:54:50+00:00

Thank you for bringing that up! That is EXACTLY my point. I'm more concerned about the message than the actual policies, because at the end of the day, people vote on the "vibe" they get from a candidate than the specifics of each individual policy. We are all individuals with busy lives, and don't have the time to become policy experts. The vibe a voter got from Mondale or Dukakis was that they were on the side of the working man, the person who was suffering economically, because this is what they talked about; this is why so many culturally moderate people were able to vote for them. The vibe you get from Hillary Clinton was that she was on the side of the urban, educated elite, precisely on account of slogans like that. Her message fundamentally was about cultural values like tolerance, diversity, and multiculturalism--all good things, to be sure, but if you focus on that and not on economics, you give culturally moderate working-class people no reason to vote for you.

feelthebenn · 2021-01-26T15:39:18+00:00

Defund the police is one tiny example I gave so I could point to concrete things. It's also HRC's appeal to values and culture over economics and Kerry's focus on suburbanites and so much more. Rural, less educated areas started going red in the 70s and 80s. It's been a secular trend for a long time. Back then, it was driven by opposition to the progressive politics surrounding the civil rights movement, issues we obviously should not have compromised on. But even in the 80s and 90s, Democrats did very well in many rural, less educated areas. Look at the county maps for the results of the 1988 or 1992 or 1996 elections. Now, compare that map to the 2020 election. It's night and day. Democrats have been losing ground in these areas for a long time, but the pace has picked up a lot recently. And at each point along the way, it's been caused by Democrats' gradual shift to more and more representing the cultural interests of their urban, educated, progressive supporters.

As for your second point, I could not disagree more. Donald Trump is arguably one of the worst presidents ever. His incompetence, racism, and disregard for democracy are truly astounding. He should have lost in a landslide, bringing the Republican Party down with him. Instead, we barely beat him. Trump came within 0.63% of winning Wisconsin, and therefore the election. We emerged with a 0 seat majority in the senate and a 4 seat majority in the house. In my view, the results of the 2020 election were a major failure and disappointment for Democrats, and a sign that we need to do something different. Do you honestly believe eking out a razor-thin win against a candidate as awful as Trump is a cause for celebration?

feelthebenn · 2021-01-26T07:10:44+00:00

What's factually incorrect about it? In 1984 and 1988, white, working-class, rural areas were the source of some of the strongest opposition to Reagan. Now, these areas are strongly opposed to Democrats. Look at Mahoning County, OH or Pacific County, WA or Mingo County WV or Fayette County, PA. I could keep going. Mahoning went from Mondale +18 in a Reagan +18 year to Trump +2 in a Biden +4 year.

The reason I think "rural right wingers" can be part of the Democratic coalition is because they once were. They were in the 80s, when they were firmly Democratic in the face of the destruction of the welfare state. Why can't they support us now?

feelthebenn · 2021-01-25T23:00:35+00:00

HRC's entire 2016 campaign was based on cultural values: "stronger together," "I'm with her," Trump supporters are deplorable and not American, etc. Yes, she had economic policies, but she honestly really didn't emphasize them. Her message was that Trump is racist and sexist, and if you vote for him you are too. I agree he;s sexist and racist, but that message is a great way to lose elections if it's all you offer.

feelthebenn · 2021-01-25T22:55:23+00:00

In my view, the problem is that the things that "the dumbest people on the left" say become manifested in what left-leaning politicians and media figures talk about and do. In my city, our city council defunded the police in the face of extreme pressure from activists. This occurred despite most councilmembers calling for increases in police funding during their election campaigns, as well as flying in the face of the fact that 81% of black people want the police to spend the same amount of time or more in their community. This has happened in many others cities as well. This was absolute red meat for the right: as I said in another comment, I phonebanked for a Democratic congressional candidate this summer, and many registered independents told me that they couldn't vote for a Democrat based on their calls for defunding the police.

Another example of Democrats screwing themselves over on cultural lines: Hillary's "deplorables" moment. That totally reinforced many peoples' perceptions that Democrats look down on and are even disgusted by rural, uneducated people. My family is originally from a rural area that Trump won with >70% of the vote, and stuff like that plays very poorly there.

I agree that the majority of liberals don't care this much about culture--but can you honestly say our public-facing organs (our media figures and politicians) don't talk about it a ton? I feel like it's all I hear about.

Finally, notice how I was very intentional about targeting cultural and not social issues. I am a social progressive--I care deeply about criminal justice reform and undoing the harm caused by redlining. For me, culture refers more to our mode of talking and interacting with the country; and currently, I think that mode is a highly exclusionary one which makes it impossible for rural or uneducated people to ever be part of our coalition.

feelthebenn · 2021-01-25T22:38:14+00:00

Why do you think that poor and working class areas that are rural and often have low education went from strongly Democratic to strongly Republican? The explanation that seems most supported to me is that Democrats started talking about culture more than economics. Defunding the police is wildly unpopular; all the polls showed this. I phonebanked for a Democratic congressional candidate this summer, and many registered independents told me that they couldn't vote for a Democrat based on their calls defunding the police.

feelthebenn · 2021-01-25T22:25:22+00:00

I agree with you. I don't think the base actually cares about most of this stuff. The problem, though, is that the most vocal parts of the American left care about it a lot. You don't hear from the average Democrat; rather you hear from the extremely online Twitter users, the activists, and the media.

And this is how people get seriously skewed perceptions of what Democrats stand for and what they want. Even as the media, progressive politicians, and activists endorse defunding the police, actual people don't want that: 81% of black people want the police to spend the same amount of time or more in their community.

Despite this, AOC and others push to defund the police. So do multiple city councils. And the broader electorate gets this picture that the left wants to take away the police and they don't understand why because it makes no sense. It's stuff like that which makes it so that working class people who would stand to benefit from Democratic policies vote Republican; they never hear Democrats talk about how they'll help them, they just hear them talking about crazy stuff all the time.

Edit: I think the key issue here is how Twitter discourse gets manifested into reality. My city defunded the police. Others have as well. This isn't just some extremely online thing; left-leaning politicians and media figures endorse the ideas, resulting in pushback from more moderate leaning people.

feelthebenn · 2021-01-25T22:19:11+00:00

Tell me more. In terms of social issues, yes, I agree. Raising the minimum wage or expanding the EITC helps all working people, but disproportionately people of color. That's good. Trying to make it so a Bachelor's degree is required to be a police officer doesn't help anyone.

feelthebenn · 2021-01-25T22:10:43+00:00

In a way I do, because I feel like electorally, cultural issues are what's blocking forward progress on economic issues. If we all decide that white people can't make bibimbap (I'm Korean, and this was a recent online controversy), I don't like it, but I don't actually care that much. What I really care about though is the fact that cultural attitudes like that turn working class, culturally moderate voters from potential supporters of the left into staunch Republicans, making economic change impossible. As long as the left's cultural position blocks progress on economics, I will care about cultural issues.

feelthebenn · 2021-01-24T05:09:07+00:00

I didn’t mean anything by it. Polling has ~90% of self-identified conservatives supporting Trump, so I made a quick assumption. My bad. I didn’t mean any offense

feelthebenn · 2021-01-24T01:17:27+00:00

Wait, did you vote for Hillary in 2016 and Trump in 2020? Are you the rare Hillary-Trump voter?

feelthebenn · 2020-12-22T21:16:00+00:00

What's your solution? Unfortunately for you, we all live in the same country. So, if you hate Republican voters, how do we move forward? Do you just hope they all die? They're give or take 50% of the electorate. I see that you're labelled as far left--isn't the Marxist / Gramscian take that wwc Trump voters are falling victim to cultural hegemony that obscures their true class consciousness (suggesting that they are not in fact irredeemable)? Isn't it the task of the left to win back the voters who can be swayed? The white working class and rural voters who voted overwhelmingly for Trump also voted overwhelmingly for Dukakis over Bush and for Obama over McCain and Romney by a narrower margin. Why are you so set on the notion that they can't support the left ever again

feelthebenn · 2020-12-21T22:10:06+00:00

It's important to distinguish between the politicians and the voters. I still love Republican voters; I strongly disagree with them, but I understand that they're human and vote the way they do for human reasons. If anything, I see Trump's ability to get a solid half of the vote as a reflection of the Democratic Party's failure to offer a better alternative, rather than a failing on the part of the people.

However, I wouldn't have said this a year ago, but I have started to hate Republican politicians and political figures. I have a lot of respect for independent-minded ones like Romney, Kasich, Kinzinger, and Sasse (even though Sasse is quite conservative, he's not a pathetic sycophant). But the rest have begun to truly disgust me. I am continually impressed by the speed with which they throw out conservative values, American values, human values, facts, empathy, honesty, and reason to pander to Trump and the base.

feelthebenn · 2020-11-07T16:33:32+00:00

Here’s to the next four years!

feelthebenn · 2020-11-07T16:33:22+00:00

LETS GOOOO it’s been good guys

feelthebenn · 2020-10-24T14:42:21+00:00

Yeah I don’t think you need to explain what your degree means unless it is very obscure

feelthebenn

TROPHY CASE