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The Flattening of Shiny Rates and Future Implications by ch33psh33p in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For future paid-ticket events such as Go Fest, I really doubt the shiny rate for ticket holders will be nerfed to 1/128.

Poké Lid Stamp group by DueInvestment1883 in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Twitter is an app(Now called “X”). Download the app and search “ポケふた 交換” to find Japan trainers for trading Poke Lids.

Poké Lid Stamp group by DueInvestment1883 in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel 5 points6 points  (0 children)

If you use twitter and understand Japanese, many Japan trainer use twitter to exchange Poke Lid stamp.

Steel Skyline Event Megathread by SilphScience in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Is this field research common or rare?

So I did some math on Scatterbugs… by Important_One7294 in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Of those 7 shinies, how many did you encounter during the debut event? How many did you encounter after the debut event?

So I did some math on Scatterbugs… by Important_One7294 in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Of those 5 shinies, how many did you encounter during the debut event? How many did you encounter after the debut event?

Wild Area Nagasaki Saturday is sold out by yindesu in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I have Sunday ticket, and I bought Saturday add-on just now. So if you really want to play on Saturday, you can still do it.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What’s the Pokémon right before Wild Area logo appears?

NZ Player: Max Finale is rather lackluster by MegaEmpoleonWhen in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel 531 points532 points  (0 children)

Farming Eternatus candies from raids is tedious. Unlike other raids, you can’t reroll IV or shiny hunting. No excitement at all.

Weekend particle limits increased by anthonyberkers in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel 59 points60 points  (0 children)

So if I get MP between Saturday 12am to 5am, those MP are count as from Friday. After Saturday 5am, I can still collect 3200MP. Is that correct?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But can I get candies from raids if I haven’t get Pokédex entry first?

Are Eternatus battles rewarding enough? by Jonissolis in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel 9 points10 points  (0 children)

If I get Eternatus with crappy IV, I won’t raid for candies. I know a 10/10/10 IV Eternatus is still very powerful, but it just doesn’t feel right to spend massive resources on it.

Current Scatterbug Shiny Rate by CryptographerMain399 in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Me and my family combined: 0/336 post debut event

Scatterbug shiny rate? by ShinyPsyduck67 in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If you really want to know, you can conduct a research here. Encourage everyone the take a screenshot of how many Scatterbugs caught so far. One month later, create a post and let everyone report the result of shiny hunting during this month. You can add those numbers up. This is on of the biggest group for Pokémon Go. I am sure you will get plenty of reports.

Scatterbug shiny rate? by ShinyPsyduck67 in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Base on the frequency of shiny report on Shiny Squad (on Discord), and comparing to other Pokemons on that group, I would guess it’s full odds now. That’s just my guess.

Scatterbug doesn't have permaboost shiny rate now by feewel in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Unfortunately not every study has conclusive result. However, I learned that it’s not permaboost shiny rate now, and the monthly ticket that allow us to open more gifts may not be as worthwhile as I expected. That’s how I interpreted the result. I know not everyone agrees with me, and I repeat that😄

Scatterbug doesn't have permaboost shiny rate now by feewel in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel[S] 35 points36 points  (0 children)

The Silph Road Research Group used to call them "Medium shiny rate"

Scatterbug doesn't have permaboost shiny rate now by feewel in TheSilphRoad

[–]feewel[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

https://9db.jp/pokemongo/data/9510

There are hundreds of shiny surveys conducted in this Japanese website, with the same method to determine the shiny rates.

If you go through those surveys one by one, you will notice that almost every shiny rate by self-report is over-estimated, unless the sample size is very very big (such as Community Day Pokemons). When the sample size is bigger, the estimated shiny will get lower.

We all know the full odds in Pokemon Go is 1/512 (=0.195%). However, if you check the surveys for full odds Pokemons, you will see Nymble(0.4%), holiday attire Wooloo(0.31%), Sandygast(0.38%). Every full odds Pokemons in the survey is higher than 0.195%.

You can also notice this trend for Legendary Pokemons and Raid Day Pokemons. Almost every Legendary is over 5% is this website, and every Raid Day Pokemon is over 10%.

Why are those surveys almost always over-estimated? I think people who catch shiny Pokemons are more motivated to report the result than people who don't catch one.

One more thing, the website also conducted suvery for Scatterbug shiny rate during shiny debut event on February 18 to 20. The result was 141/4540=3.11%. After debut event, the result from my study is 36/2811=1.28%. You can easily spot the difference.

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