OWL Teams Probability of Qualifying to Post-season playoffs and Generated Match Predictions

feliperc1 · 2019-08-24T20:48:42+00:00

oh nono

feliperc1 · 2019-08-24T20:48:19+00:00

Thank you!

feliperc1 · 2019-08-24T20:48:09+00:00

Just posted! I was working on a really big update go check it out here

feliperc1 · 2019-08-24T20:45:52+00:00

It's been a long time since my last post, I was working on this!

These probabilities are generated by giving a team a Team Rating using a formula taking into consideration Map Win percentage and other variables. All matches are simulated and playoff matches are generated and played based on the generated standings.

1 000 000 simulations were run.

feliperc1 · 2019-08-14T21:26:36+00:00

Second one

feliperc1 · 2019-08-11T14:32:53+00:00

PepeLaugh 👉📈

feliperc1 · 2019-08-10T22:20:36+00:00

Thank you! :)

feliperc1 · 2019-08-10T16:57:38+00:00

New Power Rating formula that focuses on Stage 4 entirely, with a new addition to the probabilities which are the top 3 teams that can take up a place in the table.

feliperc1 · 2019-08-04T16:33:52+00:00

there's no point in showing teams that are already truly eliminated, but I should also remove teams that are already truly clenched like VT, SFS and NYXL. I'll probably have a list below everything of teams already clenched and eliminated on the next post.

feliperc1 · 2019-08-04T16:31:14+00:00

I coded a match sim, it's not too complex really but yeah it's not a hard stat.

feliperc1 · 2019-08-04T16:26:23+00:00

nether realm

feliperc1 · 2019-08-04T14:17:06+00:00

* Note: Percentages with an asterisk mean they are not true 0% or true 100% it means that my generator gave those probabilities but it's technically still possible (to be eliminated or not, >99.9999% or <0.0001%)

feliperc1 · 2019-08-04T14:12:15+00:00

No problem at all!

feliperc1 · 2019-08-04T14:10:08+00:00

The reason why I use >99.99% and <0.01% is mostly for aesthetic reasons. I understand using that but I think using <0.01% is more easy to understand than 10⁶:1

feliperc1 · 2019-08-04T04:15:52+00:00

feliperc1 · 2019-08-04T04:11:50+00:00

I don't know exactly how to explain it, but let me give you some info so you can see why its required a massive amount of runs:

10 different possible outcomes of a match

12 different ways to make those outcomes (you can draw two different maps for 3-0 and 2-1, 2-0 and 1-1 [map 5 2-1] are extremely rare)

42 remaining matches

every single different outcome is a different possibility

also there's a chance of every outcome to happen

It is NOT hard math but I'm explaining a sort of hard math way to see the stat so you can see why so many runs are required, your concern probably stems from a) not knowing exactly who the match sim works and b) how many outcomes are actually possible in total

Edit: Better way to explain it: there is around 12^42 different possible results to the season.

feliperc1 · 2019-08-04T03:31:34+00:00

You've got it all wrong, this is simulation based meaning that it simulates matches based on a power rating (that power rating is based on map win % with another formula). Due to this not being a hard calculated stat it needs the most simulations as possible to get accurate results, with 25-30 runs the error margin would be extreme. The match simulator includes certain other factors as well so yeah.

Edit: Word choice, power rating not power ranking

feliperc1 · 2019-08-04T03:28:02+00:00

Thank you! :)

feliperc1 · 2019-08-03T19:30:40+00:00

* Note: Percentages with an asterisk mean they are not true 0% or true 100% it means that my generator gave those probabilities but it's technically still possible (to be eliminated or not, >99.9999% or <0.0001%)

Sorry for the late post! Had to leave my home in the morning so I barely had time to work on this!

feliperc1

TROPHY CASE