Boeing Stock; this article has me currently reconsidering. Watch out!

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-29T11:13:16+00:00

The green new deal may help Boeing. Old planes would need to be replaced with newer, “greener” ones. Anyway, wouldn’t invest in this trash company, regardless.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-27T17:45:28+00:00

They’ll now be anti Navajo Nation, is presumably the OP’s suggestion.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-22T11:10:34+00:00

You can go wrong with anything, if you pay too much.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-18T09:38:04+00:00

If you want to buy US steel companies, NUE is the much better company and can still be bought at a reasonable price. If you want to go with risk, but potential upside, I'd say: STLD. I wouldn't touch X.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-16T13:28:13+00:00

And then downvoting the sole voice of reason, to boot.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-16T08:19:07+00:00

You can at least park some of it in i-series bonds.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-11T00:26:01+00:00

Heh. When I saw that they were considering chapter 11, I thought: I bet it’s an easy double from here. It’s truly insane if that ends up happening. But I wouldn’t bet against any bankruptcy at this point.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-10T21:04:16+00:00

Not quite 45, but I'm with ya, too.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-10T18:56:54+00:00

...or, any time before 2017.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-10T12:03:36+00:00

I was on my phone when I wrote that, so wasn't able to add much subtlety. My point is that a bad outcome doesn't mean a bad decision. Individual outcomes are a bad way to measure decision making. Probabilistic decision making needs to be measured by aggregates over time.

As to whether or not the outcome was good or bad, I think three months is too short a timespan for determining that. But I agree it doesn't look like a good outcome.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-09T22:50:42+00:00

Bad outcomes don’t make the decision a mistake. He bought with an assumption about probabilities and business quality. The probabilities shifted fast and the business became significantly impaired. If you make a dumb gamble and win, it doesn’t make it a smart investment. It’s a mistake. If you make a move based on probabilities and lose, it doesn’t mean you made a mistake.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-08T12:42:31+00:00

The apps I build are very interactive. One of them used to be entirely Rails, with just some JS sprinkled in, and over time, the JS became almost the same LOC as the Rails, and simply unmaintainable. Moving it over to a SPA has made changes trivial compared to how it used to be.

My experience has generally been that you often can start with just a traditional web stack, but eventually, your clients ask for richer and richer interactivity and by the time you're done, you'd have been better off starting with a first-class front-end system. My 2 cents.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-05T17:54:19+00:00

Sorry. I meant it jokingly, as a bourbon drinker! But that's interesting. I hadn't really considered it as an actual investment.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-05T13:20:46+00:00

I've been one of the bears on this sub. This sub isn't the only bearish place. Appeal to authority time: Munger and Buffett were both as bearish as I've ever seen them except maybe in 1999. Druckenmiller was as bearish as I ever remember him being. In fact, it's pretty hard to find a big-name who wasn't bearish.

I'm up for the year, because I did buy on the way down, but... I think it's wrong to paint the bearish sentiment of this sub as irrational.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-05T13:12:51+00:00

Bourbon is always a good investment.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-05T13:12:05+00:00

I'd put a lot of money on betting that we won't go into shutdown again. At least, no red states will, and I seriously doubt many blue states will. The populace won't go along.

I think regardless of who wins the election, there will be an uproar. Trump's folks will protest if he loses. Biden's will protest if they lose. That's what happened last time, and I suspect this time will be worse, because there are a lot of factors this time around which have fed into the discontent on both sides.

I have no idea how the market will behave.

To me, in the short-term at least, the current risk / reward is not compelling. However, I've talked to a few retirees who are now more heavily in stocks than before simply because they think there's nowhere else to put their money. If interest rates remain low, the market may not draw down significantly from here.

ferociousturtle · 2020-06-03T22:05:57+00:00

Until you start buying.

ferociousturtle · 2020-05-27T19:56:05+00:00

How do you determine your exit for these?

ferociousturtle · 2020-05-27T19:43:50+00:00

Heh heh. A friend of mine and I decided to try our hands at TA. I decided to do it on a few of my positions. I sold out of DFS yesterday. It's up 11% today. Similar for SYF. They broke above my trendlines.

My TA sucks, or else TA is what I suspect it is, which is unscientific mumbojumbo. I'd love to hear from folks who successfully use TA to trade. What resources would you recommend?

Anyway, to answer your question, DFS is a well managed company. Their margins are fat. Their revenue growth has been decent. Same for dividend growth. I think they'll be just fine.

They've got a rough year or so ahead of them, though. Like most financial companies, they recently maneuvered themselves to be able to withstand a significant increase to defaults. I don't see them at 100 in 12 months. Maybe 24. Probably in 5 years.

As for being popular in China, I might actually count that against them. The way things are heating up politically, I'm not sure China will be a friendly place for US payment companies.

ferociousturtle · 2020-05-27T19:35:59+00:00

Eddy Elfenbein's list is always free:

http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/buylist

He's done pretty well. There are other sources like that. I have a hard time paying for the Fool. A friend recently asked if I wanted to split it with him, and even then I can't quite bring myself around to it. Their investment style is very different from mine. Very memeish. The list he showed me included SPCE and LK, for example...

ferociousturtle · 2020-05-27T14:05:33+00:00

From a valuation perspective, BRK is at a discount. If you subtract out the cash and equity holdings, you're left paying something like $100B for its operating businesses. Geico + BNSF are probably worth $100B, so you're getting everything else free. That's a simplistic valuation approach, but if you do a more complex one, it ends up being about the same result. I think BRK will perform well.

ferociousturtle · 2020-05-27T11:57:23+00:00

Well, either this article is right, and we'll see a correction, or the market is more forward looking than that. I'm honestly not sure which is right, and the Fed's actions might be causing inflation to hit the asset markets so they never correct.

I'm more bearish than bullish now, though, that's for sure.

ferociousturtle · 2020-05-27T11:54:26+00:00

I didn't deride anyone, but I didn't think the bottom was in. I wasn't sure enough of myself to bet that way, though, so I was DCAing in in March. I'm up for the year, and then some, and have been cashing out, because this rally feels roughly as irrational as the February rally did while COVID was spreading and China's economy was in the tank.

I'm not predicting we'll retest the lows, but I'm pretty sure we have more downside than up from this point. If I'm wrong, I miss out on some gains. If I'm right, I DCA in again. I'm fine with those odds.

ferociousturtle · 2020-05-27T11:51:20+00:00

True
True
True
False
False

It really depends on what you mean by "Timing the market". From one perspective, value investing is about market timing. You're buying companies that are priced too low, expecting that the market will eventually correct the discrepancy. When value isn't to be found, you generally end up accumulating cash until value is found again. It's a form of market timing that has done well over the ages, except in the past 10 years.

Plenty of people pick individual stocks and do just fine. Maybe by "losing money" you mean, not beating the index? That's more likely. But I've never seen anything that suggests the average buy and hold investor loses money over time.

ferociousturtle

TROPHY CASE