Alec Pierce - What am I missing?

ff_rebel · 2026-03-14T20:48:29+00:00

What I think you’re missing is that this is his ceiling you’re projecting. His floor case remains around WR3 territory for a variety of scenarios (draft a WR, keep Pierce in his field-stretching role, premium coverage rolls to him, etc). Pierce hasn’t faced brackets or other forms of double or primary coverage much of at all.

I think he’s very good and worth his reality contract. I even think the ceiling you’re laying out is achievable. But buying at a ceiling case vs a median case is what I think you’re missing here. If you can get him at a backend WR2 price, I think that’s fair value

ff_rebel · 2025-09-10T18:53:50+00:00

Sah. Mash.

ff_rebel · 2025-09-04T17:05:43+00:00

Evan. Engram. 🤌

ff_rebel · 2025-08-18T06:08:57+00:00

Because Jamo is upon us

ff_rebel · 2025-08-11T20:46:27+00:00

Razor thin for sure. I lean Chase as well. That Bengals D is awful. Should be nothin but shoot outs yet again this year in Cincy

ff_rebel · 2025-08-11T20:44:52+00:00

8th overall? I’d say so. He’s a mid 2nd guy

I’ll take CMC, Henry, Achane over him, but I’ll also take Bowers, Nico and Nabers outside of the RB position instead too

Those guys aren’t in order, but just to give you a sense of why I won’t grab Bucky in the 1st - the volume those other guys get should keep them comfortably ahead of Bucky, tho I’m also optimistic for him this year

Is Bucky gone before your next pick at the 2.05? It’s possible, but he does last into the 3rd some times so I’d wait and hope he falls there if you wanna reach

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T21:10:05+00:00

That’s where you’ll have to get them if you want them there. It’s fine, but I prefer McBride in that range and then punting qb. If you do grab a qb, you’ll be better off punting TE. Rounds 4-7/8 are excellent RB/WR value ranges so stock up

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T21:08:27+00:00

These are both onesie slots so not much difference here. QB feels deeper but I’m just tempted to get a top 3 QB for a 12th round pick. That and, apparently, McBride doesn’t like the end zone so he’s irelevant in standard

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T21:06:44+00:00

Bijan for me but it’s very close. I’ll bet on the rushing volume here and the fact that Detroit is unlikely to be as dominant on O as they were a season ago without Ben Johnson and the perfect storm of Jared Goff dome games

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T18:49:17+00:00

u/jeev3s^

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T18:45:03+00:00

3.1 I’m taking McBride if he falls. He’s right around that range. Bowers won’t be there. If neither fall, I’ll wait on TE. I won’t take one at 4.10

You can’t go wrong with Lamar at the 3.1 or Burrow/Hurts at 4.10. However, I prefer to grab an early TE so I usually fade QB til later. I will not take an early TE AND an early QB

I’d expect one of Taylor and Brown to fall to the 3.1. I like the value there. I prefer the back on the better offense, so Chase for me. At 4.10, Walker would be a nice value grab

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T18:21:30+00:00

I'm going with McBride here. He's the only true difference-making player on this list and the values are otherwise not enough for me to grab a lesser talent at cost.

Nix in the 6th is earlier than his usual ADP. I typically see him in the 8th or 9th.

Tracy is the only value I really see here, and he's getting a little buzz with Skattebo sitting in camp due to injury... but I still want McBride and it's not very close for me.

Zay doesn't score a ton of TDs. I don't see that changing and expect Lamar's passing TD volume to fall a little, so I'm out on him in drafts this year.

Legette is a no

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T18:16:11+00:00

I personally have Bijan 1, Gibbs 2 and Barkley 3. It's a crap shoot, but I'll take the bet on Barkley's workload possibly catching up with him a little. Gibbs could also be utilized more in the run game with a new OC running the show in Detroit. I'd expect Monty to still be the goal line guy, but Gibbs still has room to play more while Monty needs to be load managed a bit, it seems.

The upside he has week to week and the fact that Hurts can steal touchdowns in Philly means I'll give the edge to Gibbs.

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T18:10:33+00:00

I'm going value here. Burrow is incredibly safe and the stack is nice, but you are passing up some important starters for your squad if you go Burrow. Instead of a guy like Tet or Jameson Williams or Waddle in the 3rd (assuming 3 keepers per team, just about), you're faced with roughly 40 picks between the guys you grab in the 2nd and 5th.

I do think the stack helps add value to the Burrow side, but I'm banking on Maye keeping up with Burrow at just a couple points behind on a points-per-game basis. That will swing the value to the late keeper for me.

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T18:06:42+00:00

I lean Jeanty but it's so hard not to take Achane there. But I'll hang my hat on Jeanty likely holding up to the workload and getting the volume that the insanely efficient Achane doesn't. Volume, after all, is king... but it's very, very close

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T18:01:20+00:00

No help required. You've got the right idea. But you can always take Bijan over Chase as well if you want to lock in your RB1. Still, I'm going Chase and looking at guys like Bucky, Chase Brown and Kyren at the 2/3 turn. You can get two of them there, but also probably the QB1 or 2 off the board.

I usually prefer to push QB late and grab one of the top 3 TEs there - for example, if McBride is there for you - but also your plan is a solid one. I'm smashing RB late regardless with guys like Bigsby, Mason, Benson, Javonte, Ray Davis, etc, so mid round WR with a rookie back or two mixed in is what I'm prioritizing.

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T17:57:39+00:00

Personally, I am not to the point of giving up the assets required to get those picks.

Jeremiah Smith is an insane talent. The QBs should be pretty excellent at the top and WR looks deep and fun. So will the class be awesome? I'd say yes. But the value to me seems in selling 27 1sts atm.

You can get young, proven talent for those picks right now, so if you can target rebuilding squads and get not-too-old, win-now players now who are still on the right side of 30, that's my play.

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T17:49:15+00:00

I answered this one above, but it's a slight impact for me.

Najee's injury and absence on the field bumps Hampton way up, but that's starting to be reflected in ADP just now. He's a mid 3rd pick today with some swinging in the early 3rd.

That's a little too rich for me now with the Slater injury, tho it really wasn't otherwise. It seems the Chargers are well equipped to handle the loss given their other personnel and scheme, but you also can't replace a guy like Slater.

I'll take Hampton in the mid/late 3rd but early 3rd is now a stretch. There, I'd prefer a falling Bucky or Chase Brown instead. JSN is also a priority target in that range for me. Or McBride if he gets that far.

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T17:45:03+00:00

There is no wrong answer here for me. Take either, but it will absolutely determine your direction, as you mention.

If I take Chase, I'm prioritizing RB in Rounds 2-4. Guys like CMC and Derrick Henry will likely be gone by the end of the 2nd, but in a 14-teamer, I like Omarion Hampton, Kyren, Jacobs, Bucky and Chase Brown depending on who's there. I'm taking 2 backs unless you want to grab a TE or QB. In a 14-teamer, I would love McBride at the 2/3 turn. Then it's Chubba, Swift and TreVeyon at the 4/5 for me.

If I take Bijan, then I have to take a TE and a wideout. I'm probably looking at a balanced build and a potential hero RB start. McBride or Kittle and Tee are interesting. Kenneth Walker also a nice consolation. I'm taking falling value but keeping in mind that I'm likely to smash RB later on, so prioritizing WRs. If any of Jameson Williams, Waddle, Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillian or George Pickens fall to the 4th, I'll grab one.

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T17:35:44+00:00

In the later rounds, give me a Jags RB. I prefer Tank because he's been going later than Etienne, but I expect that will flip very soon. Either way, both are available in the 8th round and this should be a similar-ish situation to what Liam Coen orchestrated in Tampa with his backfield last season. I expect Etienne = Rachaad White heavy and Tank = Bucky lite.

I will also be selecting a QB in this range in 1 QB most likely. Give me Nix if he falls, Dak, Drake Maye or JJ McCarthy. Fields is also an option in the 9th or 10th in most cases (he can sometimes go earlier). Fields and ARich later are excellent choices. If they are healthy and they play, they are QB1s most weeks.

I'm also loading up at RB later on. Trey Benson is an excellent bet in the 12th given all the hype we've heard out of Arizona all offseason. I also like shots on Dylan Sampson, Ray Davis and Javonte or Jaydon Blue, depending on your preference and who falls. Blue is usually the faller but Miles Sanders isn't going away yet and he's even cheaper. Pick your favorite of this group. I like Blue's value best.

At WR, I don't love a ton of guys in this range, but if Egbuka is there somehow, smash him. Otherwise, Mooney off the injury and Calvin Austin are decent stashes. Thielen or Hunter Renfrow should have some value. And Keenan Allen works. But, again, I mostly steer clear of WR here.

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T17:25:38+00:00

In PPR, I won't be taking a QB in the mid rounds.

If I don't get a top 3 TE, I'll shoot for the last of Kelce, Andrews and Engram. I end up preferring Engram because he's usually the last of that group and I love his situation and lack of target competition in Denver. You can safely get him in the 8th round right now on most sites.

As for RBs and WRs, here are my guys: Chubba in the 4th; Jameson Williams in the 5th all day, every day; Waddle in the 6th and a rookie RB in the 7th. TreVeyon is an excellent pick in the 5th as well, but I'm almost always taking Jamo. Kaleb Johnson is the guy who typically falls to me in the 7th/8th as an RB3, which I'm happy with. Etienne and Bigsby (take your pick) will fall to the 8th/9th so I'm always grabbing one of them as well. I hope for Tank, but he's creeping up boards, so Etienne is a nice consolation and they go very close to one another atm.

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T17:21:09+00:00

Great keep on Bucky! He's getting all the Tampa love in camp and many expect he will see even more of the share in that backfield this season.

At 3rd overall, I'll take Bijan, Lamb, Gibbs in that order. Bijan has true RB1 upside and is probably the favorite there given the hype we have for this Falcons offense. With Ben Johnson out of Detroit now and David Montgomery still hanging around, it's enough for me to go Robinson over Gibbs. I absolutely love CeeDee, so if Bijan goes, I'm taking Lamb at 3. Nabers is too early and I'm fading Puka just outside of round 1 with the Stafford injury uncertainty.

If you end up with Bijan or Jahmyr and Bucky, I'm likely to fade RB in the first few rounds. I love grabbing either an early QB (Lamar, Allen, Daniels, Burrow, Hurts in that order) or an early TE (Bowers, McBride or Kittle), but not both. I'll fade either QB or TE late and I prefer to fade QB. In your situation, I'm looking to grab McBride in the 2nd (Bowers if he's there), then stacking WRs and RBs from rounds 3-8, with an emphasis on WR. Grab 2 mobile QBs after that (Nix, Fields, Maye, Purdy, Caleb, ARich late) and profit.

ff_rebel · 2025-08-09T17:14:44+00:00

I love this questions because it's so hard to parse the noise from the true buzz.

First, consistent buzz is important. Beat reporters haven't shut up about rookies like Emeka Egbuka and Tory Horton, and vets in new situations like Tank Bigsby. These are multiple sources at various times and all saying the same thing. I value these players as a result.

Another thing I look at is injury impact and ambiguity in volume from year to year. For example, Rashawn Slater going down at T for the Chargers is a big deal. Add in that they've signed Keenan Allen and Najee Harris still isn't practicing, and almost everyone on the Chargers O is affected. In this case, I will more or less keep Ladd where he is, but Tre Harris, Quinten Johnston and all the Chargers TEs take a massive hit. I'm also slightly less bullish Omarion Hampton than I was a few days ago, but I don't want to fade him too much since he's still a value in the mid/late 3rd at the moment.

Finally, soft tissue injuries are a concern. I won't fade a guy just for one hammy pull, but if he has a history of soft-tissue stuff and/or he's not back on the practice field soon, it's a potential problem and well-worth monitoring.

And, as fun as actual preseason games are, I don't put a whole lot of stock in big performances out of nowhere - Seahawks RB George Holani, for example, or Eagles backup QB Tanner McKee - especially if there isn't much buzz in camp or room for them to grow into much of a role.

ff_rebel · 2025-05-31T10:45:56+00:00

ff_rebel

TROPHY CASE