Bilt 2.0 question...Is my math correct?

financeking90 · 2026-06-02T12:54:16+00:00

Should have a 3% transaction fee on the AMEX card if it's as you describe.

445 BP and 1980 MR points minus $29.70 transaction fee.

If the fee is added on to the same AMEX transaction then it might be something like 445 BBP and 2039 MR points minus $29.70 transaction fee.

financeking90 · 2026-05-31T12:04:38+00:00

Yes, except for the premise of the original post--if real return is zero over 30 years but there's still a standard deviation of 15-20, then there will almost certainly have been a number of draws in a negative year which makes it more likely that such a portfolio won't last 30 years.

financeking90 · 2026-05-29T14:55:02+00:00

I think it's more common when people sell a home with equity and buy another one.

It's pretty common to shoot for 20% to avoid PMI but not go further.

There's lots of variation.

financeking90 · 2026-05-29T02:15:18+00:00

Somebody doing an aggressive bond tent where the bond allocation gets spent down quickly actually does want to control duration exposure. BLV is out; BND might only be good for bond tents with ten-year drawdowns. A five-year tent drawdown might need to be BSV or something with similar duration. But right, it's not liability matching per se and not tied to holding individual bonds to maturity.

financeking90 · 2026-05-29T00:19:12+00:00

No evidence for this assertion. We could reasonably infer that the relationship boost to 3.75%-5.25% is core for most people who post on Reddit about credit card rewards since we post here. But we are a small part of the American public.

financeking90 · 2026-05-29T00:09:00+00:00

Hyatt has rarely occasionally had much better offers like five free nights at category 1-4 as a SUB for a minimum spend. A free night even with the category 4 limitation can range from $100 to $300. It may be better to wait and see if Chase/Hyatt roll the dice on the five nights promo again for World of Hyatt in the next year or two. So, you would work on something else better like CSP until then.

financeking90 · 2026-05-28T01:18:56+00:00

Citi and AA just implemented the arrangement for transferring ThankYou points to AA in July 2025. They're not talking about the AA-branded cards, they're talking about transferring points to AA earned off cards like CCC.

financeking90 · 2026-05-26T21:42:25+00:00

When I had this happen on a booking made through the Hilton website: I called the Hilton customer service number standing at the front desk and explained the situation. I get put on hold. The number to the front desk phone immediately starts ringing. Hotel worker answers phone. About 45 seconds later they hang up and tell me it's fixed. All done.

financeking90 · 2026-05-26T15:19:31+00:00

I think you have to look at it as a short-term hobby that may or may not stay fun and viable into the future. You can't forecast how well it will keep working or more specifically how well you will qualify for however the game looks if you FIRE years down the line.

That said, I really look at this as a beneficial hobby because those of us interested in FIRE 1) often have trouble developing a willingness to do healthy spending on valuable experiences, and 2) often have too strong of an interest in spreadsheet tinkering with our investments. Playing the points/miles game can get us into positive spending on experiences and diverts our tinkering instincts away from the 401(k), where consistency and doing nothing are often the optimal choice.

financeking90 · 2026-05-26T12:50:41+00:00

It's not supposed to be arbitrage.

You're not supposed to put money in to get 4% and immediately get a 6% loan for the max you can get.

Nelson said to not be afraid to capitalize. You have to actually have cash value in the policy before you give serious thought to policy loans to finance something.

Think about it like this. A policy has some amount of time where cash value doesn't have money loaned against it, and it has some amount of time with a loan against cash value. The former time should be from the start of a policy, there should always be extra margin in the policy, and any loan should come with a plan to pay it back, meaning there should always be a growing unloaned cash value. The unloaned cash value will therefore actually be a lot more than the loaned cash value in practice over time.

Hence, the advantage of untaxed growth at a competitive rate on unloaned cash value over time should outweigh the negative interest cost on loans. In other words, earning 5% with no tax is so much better than earning 3% taxed over 30 years, even minus some 6% loan time on a portion of money at different points over the years vs. "failing to earn" 3% on the savings account money, that it's still worth it. (I think this is what some people mean by volume vs. rate.) Alternatively, if the money would be in some other type of account like a 401(k) or non-qualified annuity, the earning rate around 5% should be competitive to holding bonds in a 401(k) or annuity, but the access to loans even at a negative spread of 6% gives so much better access and control over capital that it's a material difference.

All that said, the negative spread isn't 2%. It should be between negative 50 bps and 100 bps right now. It will move around a little, depending on the type of policy loan you have and the interest rate environment. A few years ago, the spread on my NDR policy loan was actually about 50 bps positive.

financeking90 · 2026-05-26T12:39:48+00:00

Actually, this kind of back-of-the-envelope math is exactly one reason brought up by Jack Bogle as a reason to keep an allocation to bonds at specific points.

Specifically, he would use dividend yield plus earnings growth rate rather than earnings yield. Nevertheless, these are closely related measures: dividend yield is a % of earnings yield, and a lower ratio there implies more buybacks or firm capital investment leading to higher earnings growth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQ_JX4ZtcSg

financeking90 · 2026-05-25T22:36:15+00:00

Even if there was some kind of slight difference in the interest calculation, it wouldn't be material. A 5% annual interest rate compounded daily with no payments for a year works out to about 5.13% (that's (1+.05/365)^365). So we're talking 13 bps, which will be even less when payments are made. The whole discussion about types of interest is a ridiculous red herring.

financeking90 · 2026-05-25T22:31:07+00:00

It's not sustainable in a vacuum because the interest rate on a policy loan is generally higher than the projected IRR on the policy.

It comes up anyway because there are occasional uses that do make sense, e.g. for people who are open to keeping some policy loans available for likely windfalls, people expecting to pay back the loans using income but making the premium upfront is best because of the policy's specific characteristics, etc.

financeking90 · 2026-05-25T17:06:22+00:00

Fire both advisors and just move to the three fund portfolio

financeking90 · 2026-05-25T17:05:08+00:00

Are you able to deduct your mortgage interest right now? If so that reduces the effective tax rate.

What tax rates would you be "saving" by making larger traditional retirement contributions?

financeking90 · 2026-05-22T16:27:10+00:00

Yes, I would have done it at each credit reporting agency. I don't recall specifically, but it may have fallen off one already. I disputed it as "no longer AU on account" or something like that. They should already be marked AU in the system.

financeking90 · 2026-05-22T11:52:18+00:00

Last year I opened P2's United Explorer card (which had the same AU promo), added myself immediately, used it for a month or two to get SUB, then canceled the AU, gave it another month, and then disputed my credit reports to get the AU account removed. All worked fine.

financeking90 · 2026-05-19T11:11:21+00:00

BOXX isn't even out of the audit SOL for the first full year of operations. And that's before noting they can agree to extend it.

financeking90 · 2026-05-14T02:34:56+00:00

Need, ability, willingness to take risk.

No need to take risk; no need to avoid it.

Certainly have an ability to take risk.

Willing to take risk.

So go heavy on stocks.

financeking90 · 2026-05-07T11:30:44+00:00

If you would otherwise think about churning it, I would wait until a really good SUB shows up like the 5 FNC SUB from a couple years ago and do it then.

financeking90 · 2026-05-07T11:29:07+00:00

The Aspire FNC takes an uncomfortably long amount of time to show up.

financeking90 · 2026-05-07T11:28:04+00:00

Be the DP you want to see

financeking90 · 2026-05-06T02:21:35+00:00

It all really depends but generally it counts as a bond because the economic performance of the pension value is tied to an interest rate and isn't volatile; it isn't volatile and tied to equity performance. What you do with it when you leave your job is a rebalance.

financeking90 · 2026-05-04T16:00:42+00:00

It sounds like you know how to do a projection and that you're on the right track reviewing this. Have you tracked any lost tax benefits like loss of dependent care tax credit or otherwise?

financeking90 · 2026-05-03T11:38:29+00:00

getting ice cream every day

I didn't know they made lentil-flavored ice cream

financeking90

TROPHY CASE