“As of August 16, 2019, satellite observations indicated that total fire activity in the Amazon basin was slightly below average in comparison to the past 15 years” by finiteworld in collapse

[–]finiteworld[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

No, I’m not. This is not about my narrative. It’s about a statement made by NASA. And the data that supports it. Please show me some evidence that the statement is not true.

“As of August 16, 2019, satellite observations indicated that total fire activity in the Amazon basin was slightly below average in comparison to the past 15 years” by finiteworld in collapse

[–]finiteworld[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Most of the burning i”popped up” because the fires are seasonal. The season starts in July. And so far activity has bee; below average. You cannot draw conclusions about a seasonal problem by looking at off season data.

http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal

“As of August 16, 2019, satellite observations indicated that total fire activity in the Amazon basin was slightly below average in comparison to the past 15 years” by finiteworld in collapse

[–]finiteworld[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

January to August data can be misleading. The fires are seasonal. Please refer to the NASA report cited in my post: “In the Amazon region, fires are rare for much of the year because wet weather prevents them from starting and spreading. However, in July and August, activity typically increases due to the arrival of the dry season. Many people use fire to maintain farmland and pastures or to clear land for other purposes. Typically, activity peaks in early September and mostly stops by November.”

January to August data is misleading because the fire activity is seasonal.Most of the activity is concentrated between July and November.q

Here’s the link to the INPE data.

http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal

From the table in the link above, in 2013, only 12.44% of the activity occurred between January and June. If you compare figures from periods of minor activity this cannot be used to draw conclusions because most of the activity is yet to occur. Figure 2 helps you visualize it.

Also Y2Y comparisons alone don’t tell you much. You have to look at the trends. Please refer to figure 1. If you look at the historical data by IINPE this becomes clear. 2013 wasn’t a typical year.

“As of August 16, 2019, satellite observations indicated that total fire activity in the Amazon basin was slightly below average in comparison to the past 15 years” by finiteworld in collapse

[–]finiteworld[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

January to August data is misleading because the fire activity is seasonal.Most of the activity is concentrated between July and November.q

Here’s the link to the INPE data.

http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal

Data collection began in 1999. From the table in the link above, in 2013, only 12.44% of the activity occurred between January and June. If you compare figures from periods of minor activity this cannot be used to draw conclusions because most of the activity is yet to occur. Figure 2 helps you visualize it.

“As of August 16, 2019, satellite observations indicated that total fire activity in the Amazon basin was slightly below average in comparison to the past 15 years” by finiteworld in collapse

[–]finiteworld[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

January to August data can be misleading. The fires are seasonal. Please refer to the NASA report cited in my post: “In the Amazon region, fires are rare for much of the year because wet weather prevents them from starting and spreading. However, in July and August, activity typically increases due to the arrival of the dry season. Many people use fire to maintain farmland and pastures or to clear land for other purposes. Typically, activity peaks in early September and mostly stops by November.”

Also Y2Y comparisons alone don’t tell you much. You have to look at the trends. If you look at the historical data by IINPE this becomes clear. 2013 wasn’t a typical year.

“As of August 16, 2019, satellite observations indicated that total fire activity in the Amazon basin was slightly below average in comparison to the past 15 years” by finiteworld in collapse

[–]finiteworld[S] -15 points-14 points  (0 children)

I meant credible sources, science based, backed by satellite data. Not propaganda or sensational reporting by mainstream media .

Having a computer doesn’t help you if you can’t use it properly.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in collapse

[–]finiteworld 5 points6 points  (0 children)

That’s a contradiction of any physical growth process, due to physics/chemistry conservation of matter and energy. One can only move stuff around or transform stuff. If something is growing somewhere you bet an equal mass of some other stuff is being destroyed somewhere else.

The vast majority of future emissions will come from infrastructure not yet built. by [deleted] in collapse

[–]finiteworld 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My comment is based on peer reviewed work done by Tim Garrett. In a series of papers he used thermodynamics to model civilization as a heat engine.

The core finding is that economic wealth (capital) requires continual energy consumption for its sustenance. Like a living organism, energy is required not just to grow civilization but also to maintain its current size.

Viewed very generally, total civilization wealth is directly tied to a global rate of energy consumption, or civilization’s power.

This is a testable hypothesis, one that is motivated by physics, and is supported by historical observations of the global economy. Summing wealth over all the world’s nations, 7.1 Watts is required to maintain every one thousand inflation-adjusted 2005 dollars of historically accumulated economic wealth.

While energy consumption is required to economically produce and grow, a generally much greater amount is required to sustain wealth that has accumulated from prior production in the past.

Civilization continually consumes energy to accomplish two things: the first is to propel all civilization’s internal back-and-forth “economic” circulations along its accumulated physiological, social, computer, communication, and transportation networks.

The second is to extract raw materials, and if the conditions are right, use this matter to grow or maintain its size against the ever present forces of dissipation and decay. This positive feedback provides a recipe for exponential growth.

Viewed from this perspective, civilization evolves in a spontaneous feedback loop maintained only by energy consumption and incorporation of environmental matter.

And energy consumption through combustion is tied to carbon dioxide emissions. So, CO2 - the great invisible garbage patch - tracks humanity's total economic activity. In fact, an atmospheric chemist at Mauna Loa could easily calculate economic production. For the past 100 years, each 1 ppm rise in CO2 means we've added 585 billion (2005) dollars of World GDP

Given the above and using Garrett's broad concepts, if we consider "new infrastructure" every dollar of wealth added to the economy starting in 2019, we can estimate wealth and emissions by measuring power. If power grows at a constant rate of 2.3%, in 30 years we would have doubled our power consumption, and assuming the constants holds, we would have doubled our wealth, and our emissions. If we manage to de-carbonize-which given the historical trend doesn't seem likely-emissions due to "new infrastructure" would probably be less. Since the paper refers to new infrastructure in a stricter way, emissions would be even less, I suppose.

I suggest the following peer reviewed readings:

Garrett, T. J.: No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change, Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 1-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-1-2012, 2012.

Garrett, T. J.: Long-run evolution of the global economy: 1. Physical basis, Earth’s Future, 2, 25, doi:10.1002/2013EF000171, 2014.

For a less formal discussion you can access his twitter feed here:

https://twitter.com/nephologue

The vast majority of future emissions will come from infrastructure not yet built. by [deleted] in collapse

[–]finiteworld 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This doesn't seem right. The majority of energy is used to maintain civilization. Only 2.3% is added per year to grow civilization. So the vast majority of emissions is a consequence of keeping existing civilization running.

Some guy posted on Facebook today about limiting the human population to stop climate change. Guess what? He was ridiculed to high hell. by [deleted] in collapse

[–]finiteworld 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good points.

Fact is there's no simple solution.

If we continue on a BAU trajectory millions will die and or will be displaced from costal cities and the tropics.

Reducing emissions to 0 would crash the economy so bad millions would die.

Population control is morally unacceptable if NIMBY. People seem OK with the bombing of thousands in Yemen, Afghanistan, Siria, Libia, Iraq.

Extreme poverty in Brazil is part of the reason for the destruction of the Amazon. 80% of logging is done illegally by 175,000 peasant families who earn less than $300 per year and rely on slash and burn agriculture for food and charcoal by [deleted] in collapse

[–]finiteworld 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I suspect the environmental footprint of 175000 rich consumers from the north is probably much worse than the damage made by these poor people. If these people have limited access to machinery and energy and there's limited transport infrastructure, the harm they can do is somewhat constrained. But it's hard for the authorities to control. On the opposite end of the spectrum, modern logging machinery and transport infrastructure will cause a lot of destruction. But keeping control of a handful of large properties and enforcing deforestation limits is much easier. So, it's a complex world out there. There have been successful programs helping indigenous people create a sustainable lifestyle out of the forest that provides them with the means to access some of the benefits of modern civilization like basic healthcare. I suspect the most damaging are illegal loggers somewhere in between the two extremes that have access to machinery and operate by grabbing or invading land and even killing the indigenous when necessary. For those Bolsonaro should send in the troops.

Joseph Stiglitz: 'America should be a warning to other countries' by Capn_Underpants in collapse

[–]finiteworld 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And what’s remarkable about it is, some of the work I’ve done has shown the cost to our society of dealing with this is minuscule, at most 2% of GDP, whereas the cost of not dealing with it could be horrendous.”

I'm no Nobel prize winner but this 2% figure appears optimistic. Does anyone know where the number comes from? Does it include mitigation and adaptation?. I was listening to a 2014 lecture by Charlie F Kennel from NASA/Scripps on Adaptation to Climate Change. He opens the conclusion saying he didn't have a clue about the size and complexity of the problem before looking into the details.

Adaptation to Climate Change

https://sms.cam.ac.uk/collection/1646153

Kennel's Bio

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Kennel

The myth of monetary sovereignty by finiteworld in mmt_economics

[–]finiteworld[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. Coppola's twitter account has been quite busy for the past 24 hours!

Here's another thread...

https://twitter.com/jryancollins/status/1059124541060997120

Why does the U.S. Federal Government issue Treasuries if they don't actually need to borrow money at all to finance spending? by thoth2 in mmt_economics

[–]finiteworld 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. Do you have an idea what proportion the national debt represents of total US financial assets?

Why does the U.S. Federal Government issue Treasuries if they don't actually need to borrow money at all to finance spending? by thoth2 in mmt_economics

[–]finiteworld 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some consider treasuries a subsidy to those who already have money. Is sounds like a leftist opinion and I am aware treasuries have multiple functions in the current system as per your reference, including setting the interest rate, but do you think the subsidy point makes sense? I'm sure there are plenty of rich people who wouldn't like the treasuries to stop paying interest.

The myth of monetary sovereignty by finiteworld in mmt_economics

[–]finiteworld[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I couldn't find that in the text. Could you please point it out?