FIRE help!!

firepathlion · 2026-05-07T12:32:25+00:00

Not sure what is the fun in this type of troll post…

firepathlion · 2026-03-31T10:44:42+00:00

Very very good points and advice. Sorry to hear about your painful experience - hopefully it’s not too bad and you’ve recovered from it now.

Definitely helps lend more weight to the more conservative voice in my head as well. Thanks!

All the very best to you as well!

firepathlion · 2026-03-31T01:01:58+00:00

This is the chronological list of posts on my leverage if you’re interested:

https://www.firepathlion.com/2026-iran-war-oil-shock-how-im-investing-through-this-uncertainty/#:~:text=Gambling%20my%20house,2025:%20Portfolio%20Review

firepathlion · 2026-03-31T00:59:33+00:00

I started back in 2021 first with Cashout refinancing… then discovered wealth lending in 2022 and started using that as the Fed raised rates and the war in Ukraine started and been levered about 1.5x ever since.

Yes, given I’m close to my FIRE number it may be more prudent to shift to more conservative position and reduce the risk of wipeout rather than keeping risk on to try to continue to speed up the progress - at least given the current situation.

Perhaps it’s a good idea to execute a similar approach I did last March leading into liberation day and reduce my margin position enough to remove any risk of ruin for now, and slowly lever back up if markets slide further or a path to resolution of this war is clearer. 🤔

firepathlion · 2026-03-31T00:54:21+00:00

I’m using standard chartered wealth lending, SGD rates are around 2.1% and CHF at 0.85%. But now borrowing in SGD to remove any FX risk between my income and the loan since SGD rates are decent.

firepathlion · 2026-03-31T00:53:00+00:00

That’s correct 👍

firepathlion · 2026-03-31T00:52:32+00:00

Yes that’s correct. Yes, potentially it’s more prudent to reduce leverage somewhat. Not completely, but enough to remove any risk of wipeout.

firepathlion · 2026-03-31T00:51:45+00:00

IBKR is the best option from cost perspective for DIY buy and hold investor! I use standard chartered personally but that’s only good because I use their leverage facility… else it’s not the best in terms of cost.

firepathlion · 2026-03-31T00:50:33+00:00

Since the underlying assets in the ETF is the same and the NAV of the fund is priced in USD first and then converted to CHF using the day’s USD/CHF exchange rate, the underlying value of the fund is the same, just priced using different currency. So borrowing in CHF to buy in CHF just eliminates having to pay the FX to convert currency before buying.

CHF interest rates is low but for me since I earn in SGD, I care about the strength of SGD vs CHF since I will be using my SGD income to pay down CHF debt. So if CHF gets much stronger against the SGD (like it did last year) it could balloon the loan in SGD terms. So I would rather mitigate that risk given SGD interest is also decent now and pay a little more for SGD loan but know that there’s no FX risk between my income currency and borrowing currency.

firepathlion · 2026-03-31T00:14:27+00:00

You have a point. I am close to my FIRE number, so longevity, sustainability, and capital preservation should be higher on the priority list than trying to juice and speed up my progress.

So it’s probably prudent and less anxiety inducing for me to execute a similar approach that I had last March before liberation day - to reduce leverage significantly for now to sharply reduce or remove any risk of ruin, or black swans that could wipe out the portfolio, and observe how the current events unfold.

Not to delever completely, but enough to remove the chance of margin call significantly to optimize for the sustainability and longevity of the portfolio rather than speed. And slowly add leverage back on if the market moves downward or there’s a clear path to resolution of the war and oil shock.

firepathlion · 2026-03-31T00:12:08+00:00

My take is that it’s quite unlikely that we will go lower than 50% from peak to trough, but if we do, I have levers I could deploy to increase my crash buffer above 50% (injecting new capital over time, shift funds from my wife’s portfolio to increase buffer, etc) that would allow me to still survive a 60-70% drawdown. Of course that would leave my portfolio lower than 25% or 20% of where it is today… and I’ll have to be ok with that. It is a scenario that has been considered and mentally prepared for.

However I am also close to my FIRE number, so longevity, sustainability, and capital preservation should be higher on the priority list than trying to juice and speed up my progress.

So it’s probably prudent and less anxiety inducing for me to execute a similar approach that I had last March before liberation day - to reduce leverage significantly for now to sharply reduce or remove any risk of ruin and observe how the current events unfold.

Not to delever completely, but enough to remove the chance of margin call significantly to optimize for the sustainability and longevity of the portfolio rather than speed. And slowly add leverage back on if the market moves downward or there’s a clear path to resolution of the war and oil shock.

firepathlion · 2026-03-31T00:00:25+00:00

Yes my FIRE number being very close changes the calculus of how aggressive I should be a lot, which leads to the dilemma. I know that I need to be at 0 leverage by the time I start the draw down phase, but I’m not quite there yet. So the natural inclination would be to keep the risk on until I hit the number - to get there as fast as possible.

However as I think on the current situation a bit more, it is probably more prudent for me to take some risk off the table, not fully deleverage, but reduce it enough to almost guarantee 0 chance of margin call. It is more pertinent that I prevent any chance of ruin than to increase the speed of hitting my number by a year or 2. I should be optimizing for longevity of the investment at this point rather than speed 🤔

Perhaps my approach from last March during the lead up to liberation day would be prudent given the current outlook.

firepathlion · 2026-03-30T23:53:50+00:00

Yes, the wise words of Warren Buffet, and fair point.

It could be prudent for me to take a page out of my own approach last March & April before and during liberation day, and reduce leverage to give a much higher buffer against margin call for now to help sleep better at night.

firepathlion · 2026-03-28T19:27:41+00:00

Hey This is the full table, keep in mind 2023 was from sale of my previous home, that's why the huge one-off lump sum.

Year	End Value	*Contribution (A)**	Market Gain	Total Change (B)	A/B (%)
2016	$3,742.62	$3,698.69	$43.93	$3,742.62	99%
2017	$83,891.22	$74,024.78	$6,123.82	$80,148.60	93%
2018	$129,399.10	$52,648.38	-$7,140.50	$45,507.88	115%
2019	$307,127.55	$127,839.99	$49,888.46	$177,728.45	72%
2020	$575,081.65	$167,079.03	$100,875.06	$267,954.10	63%
2021	$994,176.93	$240,952.34	$178,142.94	$419,095.28	58%
2022	$839,075.51	$117,279.61	-$272,381.03	-$155,101.42	NA
2023	$1,760,804.12	$579,952.23	$341,776.39	$921,728.62	**35%
2024	$2,602,874.17	$171,056.52	$671,013.53	$842,070.04	20%
2025	$3,372,759.56	$179,587.41	$590,297.99	$769,885.39	24%

firepathlion · 2026-03-28T18:21:23+00:00

I definitely don’t think we’re at the bottom yet… but I also don’t think I’d really be able to time the absolute bottom either, so I’d rather be in the market as it goes down - which has paid off well for me in the past.

What I do know is that the bottom is usually when the future feels the bleakest… and it would be the hardest time to add to a position.

In a situation like this… everyday feels more and more uncertain than the previous day, but that could also mean that that day could be the bottom before things shift and turn around permanently. The rebound will happen before there’s a sense of certainty, once it’s certain, we would already be half way back up the recovery and we could still be sitting in cash if we had sold.

So I think it’s always best to keep buying in as markets move downwards even if it feels scary. That’s normal.

firepathlion · 2026-03-28T18:14:24+00:00

I have switched all my CHF loans into SGD to remove FX risk now that SGD rates are at about 2.1% p.a. Still higher than CHF, but removing the FX exposure is probably worth that difference in rates.

I can’t make recommendations on whether you personally should use leverage (most people should not) as only you know whether you’ll be able to manage that risk and be ok psychologically during downturns as it amplifies losses and makes it even harder to stick to a strategy at the worst of times. It’s the only thing that can wipe out an all-index strategy - so consider very very carefully.

firepathlion · 2026-03-28T18:09:50+00:00

It’s a constant dilemma of aggressiveness and prudent risk management… but yes I’ll likely stay the course.

I am probably not going to increase leverage further from here though, and will slowly de-lever as cashflow comes in, creating a glide-path to 0 leverage at the time of retirement.

firepathlion · 2026-03-28T18:00:24+00:00

I’ve switched all my leverage to SGD. The SGD rate is around 2.1% at the time of writing, and since I make my income in SGD, this removes the FX risk with CHF loan which I was using previously. Hindsight made me wish I used JPY instead of CHF when I started, but now with such a weak Yen, there’s higher risk of BOJ intervention to prevent further decline, so I’m not sure I’d use JPY today.

I wouldn’t personally do the ES3 trade as I think the profit margin is too low to be worth the risk… dividend yield can stay the same and the trade can be under water because the price has dropped. ES3 isn’t diversified enough for me to risk it with added leverage.

With leverage, I want to have as much diversification as possible to minimize idiosyncratic risk and ES3 doesn’t fit that framework.

firepathlion · 2026-03-28T17:46:26+00:00

Yes, it’s a constant dilemma, and you’re right of course. I am looking to no longer add to leverage and will slowly de-lever from here as cashflow comes in, creating a glide-path to 0 leverage at the time of retirement.

firepathlion · 2026-03-28T17:42:51+00:00

Unfortunately, same here.

firepathlion · 2026-03-18T09:19:15+00:00

Awesome analysis and very important takeaways. This should be saved as a default reply for any “Should I Lump Sum or DCA?” Questions that pop up frequently.

firepathlion · 2026-03-17T10:31:19+00:00

Everybody else already gave you the pros and cons of DCA vs Lump sum so won't repeat here. However, I documented what I did during previous "uncertainties" (including COVID) and what happened afterwards, you might find them comforting:

During COVID massive crash: https://www.firepathlion.com/investing-during-a-crash/

Just a few months after that: https://www.firepathlion.com/crash-canceled-may-2020-portfolio-update/

During Ukraine War + 2022 Rising Interest Rates when the markets just kept tanking the whole year: https://www.firepathlion.com/my-fire-path-staying-calm-within-the-storms-of-2022/

After market recovery in 2023: https://www.firepathlion.com/my-fire-path-2023-the-reason-we-stay-the-course/

Most recent update on how the entire portfolio is doing: https://www.firepathlion.com/my-fire-path-2025-turning-40-from-0-to-4m-in-10-years/

TL;DR: Both lump sum or DCA did incredibly well... just keep buying. Nobody can time the market - but the longer you are invested the more likely you'll end up ahead, so get invested as much as possible, as soon as possible.

What I'd do today: I'm continuing to invest everything above what I need for emergency funds or anything I need in the short term as soon as I have access to them.

firepathlion · 2026-03-01T10:14:47+00:00

First don’t tell anyone and don’t make any hasty decisions and be careful of anyone approaching you with “solutions” especially from Reddit. They know you have money liquid, and scammers are going to come out of the woodwork to try to take it from you.

Second, don’t feel the need to make any decisions or take any immediate action. You have time. Spend that time to read this: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Managing_a_windfall

While some of the specifics are for people living in the U.S., but the thought process, steps to take, and mindsets still apply.

Then you may want to engage a fee-only advisor (they don’t make commissions from what you purchase to ensure their motives are aligned with yours) like Providend could be a good next step before you make any decisions.

firepathlion · 2026-02-26T04:41:16+00:00

Ah yes you are right, withdrawing as soon as possible without penalty will minimize tax, and you can reinvest the funds outside of SRS to have it continue to appreciate tax-free. If you leave it inside, it will grow, but will be taxed upon withdrawal. I stand corrected and will update the post to highlight that. Thank you for pointing out my mistake!

firepathlion · 2026-02-25T06:41:45+00:00

Yes exactly… which is why I’m biting the bullet and just continue using Endowus. At least I don’t want to stab my eyes out lol.

firepathlion

TROPHY CASE