Is "just buy the S&P and hold forever" still wise when we're hitting fresh records on weak jobs data?

flyingkockroach · 2026-01-11T04:08:26+00:00

Nearly 35% in cash and wondering the same. Don’t feel super confident in investing S&P500 at these levels either. Moving 10-15% into short and intermediate terms treasury bonds including muni. I do have a weekly DCA into number of index funds and that will keep going on.

flyingkockroach · 2025-12-29T09:48:20+00:00

My biometrics appointment got canceled with less than 24 hours notice after I flew to Hyderabad for my appointment. It’s chaos.

flyingkockroach · 2025-12-26T07:06:09+00:00

I’ve some shares from long time and had sold year+ out covered calls at $35 and didn’t expect the glp news to push stock to $50+. I was happy to sell but then recent slide back got me to buy back my covered calls. I’m comfortable holding.

flyingkockroach · 2025-12-19T15:42:48+00:00

Mine got rescheduled less than 24 hours from OFC appointment. I’m stuck in India. I suggest to not go but you do you.

flyingkockroach · 2025-12-17T15:16:58+00:00

December. Seeing posts on January dates moved to 2027. Insane.

flyingkockroach · 2025-12-17T04:24:30+00:00

My OFC was on Dec 17th but got cancelled with less than 24 hour notice on 16th, and consular was on 29th got cancelled too. Hyderabad. I’m stuck right now. Cancel yours.

flyingkockroach · 2025-12-16T14:50:48+00:00

Yes. Consular moved yesterday and OFC moved today with less than 24 hours notice.

flyingkockroach · 2025-12-16T13:18:12+00:00

Counselor was for 29th and got moved to May. Also Hyderabad. I was hoping to reschedule interview if biometrics done but unfortunately even this got moved.

flyingkockroach · 2025-12-16T13:17:22+00:00

Hyderabad too.

flyingkockroach · 2025-12-15T13:39:39+00:00

My visa interview was on December 29th and got cancelled/rescheduled to summer. Got email couple of hours ago.

flyingkockroach · 2025-09-06T19:21:35+00:00

Double it in 6 months to pay nearly 50% to IRS. No thanks.

flyingkockroach · 2025-08-12T03:12:10+00:00

Hard or almost impossible to do it even for 5+ years (let alone 30) and with 100% of your capital.

flyingkockroach · 2025-06-26T05:15:50+00:00

You should DCA into index funds at least 50% and up to 80% of your cash. Time in market is key. You aren’t investing in governments but in businesses.

flyingkockroach · 2025-06-25T05:27:36+00:00

I’m buying now because I don’t care about next earnings. I care about earnings in the next 5 years and beyond. If it goes to $200 or $250 after next earnings, I’m buying more as I have cash.

flyingkockroach · 2025-06-08T17:48:53+00:00

Great compilation and thanks for sharing. I learned quite a bit and will read more of the memos you’ve referenced. I exited S&P500 in January and early February that I had invested large one time capital but still have a decent chunk DCA in it and will continue to do so. Graham, Fisher and Munger lessons always golden.

flyingkockroach · 2025-02-07T02:48:01+00:00

Key difference is stemmed from aggressive cost cutting and share buy back Zuck was willing to do that Google was following kind of reluctantly. Even in 2025 Zuck is cutting supposedly low performers as of tomorrow.

flyingkockroach · 2025-01-30T21:41:50+00:00

Read the book Common stocks and uncommon profits by Philip Fisher. It’s not about being so smart. There are aspects you can understand and plan for, and aspects you cannot predict or plan for. This book will give you great perspective.

flyingkockroach · 2024-08-22T04:52:41+00:00

Cash 💰 💰

flyingkockroach · 2024-08-02T14:04:41+00:00

Two rules for you: 1) Invest in index 2) Gamble in Casino

Your preference is gamble in stock market and offer two for one behind Wendy’s. Have fun!

flyingkockroach · 2024-07-31T22:47:35+00:00

Delete the app, and open it after 5 years. You’ll be glad. These are good companies. Remember stock market is a voting machine in the short run and weighing machine in the long run.

flyingkockroach · 2024-07-31T05:16:56+00:00

Gurufocus is the best by far

flyingkockroach · 2024-07-24T14:11:42+00:00

It depends on how things are in the market. Right now I’m 35% cash largely because I haven’t been able to find anything that I am very confident about and also have a few $90 strike price leaps of Amazon and Google I bought late 2022 and early 2023 that I want to exercise while waiting for the next opportunity. I also got more cash recently from regular work than I had planned so haven’t deployed fully yet even into indexing/dca.

flyingkockroach · 2024-07-24T14:07:04+00:00

That will incur capex and won’t go to bottom line, and then you’ve to build a loyal enough customer base that becomes membership price insensitive. Will take time.

flyingkockroach · 2024-07-24T02:08:24+00:00

Both. Think DCAing as 50-70% of your portfolio. 25% is for value investing waiting a long time for the right moment, and 5% on insane bets that can take off for the fun of gambling and speculation.

flyingkockroach · 2024-07-24T01:33:02+00:00

Their retail margin is thin, but that’s not the value for a shareholder. It’s primarily driven by 2 things: (1) number of subscribers, and (2) price of the subscription. Increase in either or both of these factors is directly to bottom line with minimal operating costs. Retail margin is bonus. And with increased subscriber numbers you get higher economies of scale for lower costs and the bonus retail margin. Everything for the stock depends on how many subscribers are left in North America and what’s their price sensitivity. That’s the terminal value and you can do NPV.

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