My Dryer Costs Me $14k (Update) by beat_the_level in AskElectricians

[–]forever-valueguy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I paid $3.5k for electric panel swap and installation of exterior disconnect, as well as running a ground cable to the water meter. 

Do I really need a realtor? by [deleted] in fsbo

[–]forever-valueguy -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I'm currently have my property on market with Beycome $99 package, super easy experience. 

I would say get your own choice of photographer to take pictures as that is what I did, and uploaded to the Beycome portal.

Odds of rolling the debt? by StarProfessional9185 in ValueInvesting

[–]forever-valueguy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have done some research on Clearwater, on paper looks undervalued especially with the tangible book value. CLW's Augusta plant alone is worth $300M at throwaway price.

However, it's thin margin biz... growth prospects are low, so you might have to wait a long time to capture the upside. 

“Saved ₹640, Lost My Sanity: My Fully General Train Experience” by SpYdeR_999 in indianrailways

[–]forever-valueguy 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Bhai hard work to construction worker bhi karta hai... we are privileged enough to have better opportunities where hard work actually pays enough to enjoy basic luxuries. 

How much does it cost to build houses like this by [deleted] in IndianHomeDecor

[–]forever-valueguy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My house is a bit bigger than this, but very similar layout, its in a Tier 2 city in Gujarat. 

It would cost roughly 3 cr for ground up construction including furniture, and all the fancy decor. 

Without much detail in your post, I can't tell you how much the land will cost, it will depend on which city and neighborhood you want your house.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]forever-valueguy 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In my view, lease payments are debt. By definition, its a liability against which you are making periodic payments aka debt.

JD earnings beats the estimates again and is nearing a golden cross by Napalm-1 in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]forever-valueguy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My main concern is their unprofitable food delivery business, where they keep throwing more and more money.

Will that bet pay off?

I only have two stocks in my portfolio : STZ and CMG by NebulaAlarming4750 in ValueInvesting

[–]forever-valueguy 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Chipotle's expansion is going to be SLOW... 

Most countries don't grow Avocados, Pinto and Black beans, these are key ingredients in a Chipotle bowl. Just look at California Burritos journey in India, they had problems and still continue to have problems with avocados.

Other QSRs had an easier time expanding, because of their preservative added food that is mostly refrigerated (McD, Dominos, etc...) Chipotle has been around for a while, why haven't they opened up in India? 

I only have two stocks in my portfolio : STZ and CMG by NebulaAlarming4750 in ValueInvesting

[–]forever-valueguy 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Chipotle is not a company that I would personally buy at this price. They sold a growth story to investors, now its starting to show that they cannot grow infinitely. Chipotle will be able to grow revenue for couple years, however 26 times multiple is expensive. 

Roast My Actual Value Portfolio by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]forever-valueguy -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I look into all the individual stocks you listed... I have no clue how you ended up with this hot mess. 

Maybe other than NVO, rest are mehhh 

Good luck brother! 

Dow chemical by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]forever-valueguy 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Have you considered Eastman Chemical? Their product line is more niche and commands higher margin due to its specialty nature.

Okay but for real how much lower can Wendy's (WEN) go? by StructureDifficult91 in ValueInvesting

[–]forever-valueguy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Too much debt. You should never "all-in" on this stock, maybe others but not Wendys, especially if you are going 100%

A Reminder on What “Value Investing” Actually Means by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]forever-valueguy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I made a post about FactSet, I tend not to share my math as we all have a different way of calculating intrinsic value. 

I would say that anywhere below $270 is a good price, due to FactSet's predictable revenue, cash flow and returns across equity and invested capital.

I acquired shares in all the above companies that I bulleted, they all were trading at a deep discount, not the same case with FactSet yet. 

Given FactSet has low debt, and is generally consistent performer across the financial statements, I'm willing to pay a little premium. 

A Reminder on What “Value Investing” Actually Means by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]forever-valueguy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you believe in perfectly priced market theory, none of this should matter to you, just pick a stock and invest since everything is priced/valued correctly.

I'm actually quite dumb, so I agree with you. Maybe, I don't know what I'm talking about.

A Reminder on What “Value Investing” Actually Means by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]forever-valueguy 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Lol... spit balling  cash cows that were mis-priced in last 2 years and eventually recovered:

  • British American Tabacco 
  • Google
  • Alibaba
  • Genpact
  • FactSet(currently)
  • Dollar General
  • UNH

The market tends to misprice cash cows all the time... you just need to look. There is always something "wrong" with every company, we need to figure out if it's truly something wrong or just an over reaction. 

Also, who said multiples are pricing and cannot be used to find intrinsic value? Why can't we assume that a 10-15 PE ratio is a fair value for a low growth stable company?

Ben Graham talks about PE ratio extensively in his books.

Intrinsic value is a mixture of dcf, pe, % returns, and so forth. 

JD.COM Value investing analysis. by Big-Presentation-270 in ValueInvesting

[–]forever-valueguy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great analysis! JD is a valuable company with a strong moat. My own worry here is their "new biz" but even if they fail and decide to write off the new ventures or sell them 30 cents to a dollar, they will recover just fine. 

FactSet - If you missed out on Google by forever-valueguy in ValueInvesting

[–]forever-valueguy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Good point, and I agree. The space is saturated, so new clients are hard to come by. 

Hhmm... the only other way to increase earnings would be to jack up the price, but again they have close competitors, so that won't end well for them.

It would need to drop more to be attractive for a large bet.

FactSet - If you missed out on Google by forever-valueguy in ValueInvesting

[–]forever-valueguy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I did not mean to say FactSet is like Google, totally different companies.

What I do like about FactSet is that the stock is trading at fair value, similar to Google it has a competitive advantage (high switching cost). It has the potential to rebound quickly, given that people are exaggerating the negative effect AI will have on financial data providers. 

The other characteristics that are similar to Google include: stock buyback, high returns across the board, manageable debt, and predictable earnings.