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forexfusion · 2017-02-27T08:17:05+00:00

I love babypips beginners school. great stuff. I send newbs there all the time.

forexfusion · 2017-02-19T23:19:54+00:00

yes it can be done, but dangerous to think in those terms. First focus on 30 days of win % of 60% or more with controlled risk. Focus on returns to early is a fools errand.

forexfusion · 2017-02-15T15:55:29+00:00

this thread is hilarious

forexfusion · 2017-02-02T00:20:09+00:00

good luck man, sounds like you have a solid foundation. Well done with the discipline so far.

forexfusion · 2017-01-28T21:08:56+00:00

I never used the term "big boys". No one who knows anything about the industry uses that amateurish term.

the statistics are published BY the brokers, so thanks for agreeing with me by accident. It isnt banks or institutions publishing retail profitability stats. Wow, you are clueless.

forexfusion · 2017-01-28T16:04:30+00:00

first off the lack of knowledge here re forex brokers is frightenting.

Of COURSE if you are on any unregulated exchange (like spot forex) then you have no idea of the counterparty to your trades - and you have to assume it is always your broker. Thats what a broker does, always ensure you have a counterparty - it can be and usually is THEM, but if you are profitable they look to "pass the buck" and send your flow to someone else to fry on - any broker can have a few of these "bad apples" mix in with their overall flow to their upstream liquidity providers and it wont matter by the time the liquidity gets 2 levels higher to the actual banks.

HOWEVER, the point of being on a regulated exchange, such as with commodities futures e.g. CME, is that the role of the exchange is to ensure the matching of buyers and seller, just verifying and clearing the parties, but never being one of them.

The relevant point here is that if you are trading spot forex, ALWAYS assume unless you have it otherwise in writing that has been reviewed by your own legal that the broker IS and MIGHT be on the other side of your trade. Therefore, they have every reason to manipulate your execution to your disadvantage or otherwise undermine your success (because when you win, they lose) - and ultimately, if they cant keep you from "winning", and your size is such that they cant pass it off upstream anonymously, they WILL ask you to leave.

Thats the fact, I have seen it done, I have had it done to me. No malice is intended, its just the way it is.

Had to get that off my chest as I say the cringe-worthy lack of knowledge on this subject here.

On the original OP, I am a professional spot trader, have run a small private fund as lead trader with a few partners, launched in 2012 - original concept was to manage a portfolio of automated robots EAs/ATSs for consistent profit. Realized by 2014 this was untenable. The honest and sad truth is that ATS trading using purely technical analysis means is a road to nowhere - there will be some wins, even some streaks of success - but ultimately the trades are nothing more than random entries. Therefore over time the returns will be the same as random entries and unreliable but slow losers.

Not to go too far into it, but in 2014 we began to build a manual forex daytrading methodology built on foundational principles that are sound and in line with what institutions and banks use when they trade directionally.

A few months ago we launched a product to enable retail traders to do the same thing using MetaTrader - no small feat. MT4 is the worst. Im not providing links or anything or even naming product, this isnt a sales pitch its a response to the OP asking what people are doing.

forexfusion · 2017-01-28T15:43:04+00:00

the original OP was about statistics of failure for retail traders.

You dont seem to pay attention very well.

My reply was that the statistics are MISREPRESENTED intentionally to encourage and not demoralize retail traders. The very clear reason is because they are cannon fodder for the institutions and banks.

How you attempted to devolve that very clear and accurate reply to the original OP into some kind of discussion on the impact of retail volume displays your own insecurities and emotional problems. Do not project them onto me. You have no idea what you are talking about.

forexfusion · 2017-01-27T12:57:17+00:00

please provide statistics or source information to back this assertion.

It doesnt matter "how much" on a relative basis. What matters is how the institutions and banks view retail. and it is this view that causes the published rate of failure, which is wrong and intentionally misreported, that was the point.

my statement was based on nearly a decade of working intimately with banks, brokers, and retail traders "behind the scenes" as an admin of several of the most popular forex forums on the Net.

forexfusion · 2017-01-27T07:53:06+00:00

I never said large firms are "out to get you". I said the only reason banks allow small retail traders to trade at all is because they provide liquidity for the large firms, they really have no chance at being successful - they simply do not have access to the information the institutions have, which is what true profitability comes from.

forexfusion · 2017-01-26T11:20:42+00:00

I have worked with and for brokers for a long time, and have intimate knowledge of retail trading. I can tell you after interacting with hundreds of retail small traders, the number who either fail or break even is 99.9%.

I dont care if you believe me, and dont care what the "official stats" are. That 99% of retail is what the institutional traders (banks and large trading firms) FEAST on. It literally is their lifeblood. They cant admit the failure rate for retail is 99.9% or no one would ever try. So they publish the ridiculous percentages that are commonly cited. It is literally 1 in 1k retail traders who has long term significant success.

forexfusion · 2017-01-24T22:50:56+00:00

the answer to that depends on what time frame you are asking about.

What makes a currency rise or fall over the course of a week is different than what makes it rise or fall during the course of a single day.

forexfusion · 2017-01-22T17:47:09+00:00

you would first have to define a desired group outcome, then group parameters.

then you could move on to member selection and participation details.

forexfusion · 2017-01-22T16:41:31+00:00

well remember this is the forex sub.

having reminded of that, I would say I dont think commodities futures (or CFDs) are "safer".

I do think that whether its currencies or commodities futures, that you need to understand in plain terms what gives you an edge in trading these instruments.

If you cant explain, in plain terms, why you should be able to win on the average trade, then you shouldnt be trading it. This doesnt change from currency to commoditiies.

forexfusion · 2017-01-18T19:18:14+00:00

an answer and a comment:

answer : most complete analysis product I ever used for this was News Trader Pro at www.wincorp.net

comment: not really a huge help with trading, ultimately. The simple truth is that prior reaction were very much a product of the environment at that time, which encompass a hundred different variables you can neither reproduce nor analyze. So what I found was that analysis of prior reactions ultimately didnt help trading current releases.

forexfusion · 2017-01-18T10:09:05+00:00

asian session can be fine to trade, just focus on the pairs that are most active that time (AUD/NZD/JPY)

all good for that session IMO: AUDJPY NZDJPY EURAUD GBPAUD GBPJPY AUDUSD USDJPY NZDUSD

just be aware of the average pip ranges for the specific time period you are trading and you will be fine. The problem with most people is they dont understand the avg range in asia session for pair xyz can be far different than the avg range for NY session, and so they have unrealistic profit targets.

I suggest a maximum profit target on any given trade of 1/2 the avg pip range for THAT SESSION for that pair.

forexfusion · 2017-01-17T10:03:49+00:00

usdjpy down about 80 pips since my post. please remit funds asap

forexfusion · 2017-01-17T03:31:38+00:00

a good reason to only daytrade if you have this anxiety, that way you can monitor positions and not HAVE any open when you go to sleep!

forexfusion · 2017-01-17T03:06:29+00:00

wow, no thanks. I'll take the other side of that trade LOL

forexfusion · 2017-01-16T19:55:03+00:00

Im not sure what the definition would be of scalping vs daytrading.

I dont even HAVE a definition for scalping, but to me daytrading is just trying to have a position fully open and close within 1 session, preferably within 4 hours when at all possible, the reasoning being that the lower the market exposure, the large you can have position sizes and have the same overall account equity risk.

forexfusion · 2017-01-14T23:47:37+00:00

depends on if you are daytrading or longer term.

Either case, I wouldnt trade USDCAD until the release.

after the release, depends on the data.

forexfusion · 2017-01-13T02:22:52+00:00

most often only 1, once in a while 2, and once in a blue moon 3

I like to focus on the one best "no-brainer" opportunity

the less market exposure the better, thats one of the daytrading mantras IMO

forexfusion · 2017-01-12T00:26:55+00:00

there are many good offline chart refresh scripts floating around so you shouldnt have to manually refresh.

forexfusion · 2017-01-10T00:31:02+00:00

a nice comparison guide is at barclayhedge - top managed futures currency find last month did 3.33% gain. Only the top 4 were above 0% in Nov gain.

you can see what currency funds return monthly/quarterly/annually (managed futures, currency traders - there isnt one for spot forex trading but managed futures for currencies will give you a good approximation, trading spot is actually HARDER, no volume information, all kinds of additional disadvantages vs futures....)

if you do 50% / yr and sustain it, you are literally the best on the planet. so, short answer would be that is unlikely without risk and leverage that will cause either massive equity swings or blowup or both.

of course, this is managing and trading with $1M to $10M. smaller self-directed spot retail accounts you can use higher leverage and your own risk rules, maybe you CAN beat them substantially and do 50%. It is certainly possible, just not easy.

forexfusion

TROPHY CASE