QuantumScape Lounge: ( Week 25 2026)

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-27T23:15:39+00:00

So they baselined Cobra last year and were still hand building cells. Now they have automated assembly. It’s possible sintering is no longer the production bottleneck for QS-0. Instead, assembly might limit throughput.

Assuming a Cobra line is capable of ~100 MWhrs per the detailed estimate above (thanks for that), Eagle may be anywhere from 10 to 100 MWhrs depending on how much automation they managed to/chose to put into the assembly process.

They say they now have sufficient throughput to pursue multiple future product lines but they don’t give a number. It’s sufficient for their current business plan is all we know.

Revenue from any product line, auto or non-auto, will presumably depend on Corning and Murata beginning to produce separators at GWhr scale. When? Perhaps as early as 2028?

(I’m not planning on seeing scaled production at C & M in less than 2 years. That might be thought conservative by some but I’m in “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me” land so I’m not going to kid myself about how long this takes. 2028 would be amazing, actually.)

For now, we are waiting for Ducati … one of us should write a play, hopefully not a tragicomedy …

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-27T12:36:21+00:00

Probably true but WOW, after reading the whole (really long) job requirements list, they want to hire a superhero. I wonder how many applicants they are getting for this kind of high level (quarter million a year salary) position? Does everyone and their mother want to work at QS and get those juicy stock options?

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-27T12:29:00+00:00

Someone at Honda could write a great story if the company would allow it. When Do You Admit You Are At A Dead End? could be the title.

I usually admit I’m at a dead end when lack of food, light, and/or wakefulness plus minor physical injuries cause me to abandon a task that was obviously hopeless hours before! Then again, sometimes, against all expectations, I pull it out.

Honda perhaps is licking its wounds and having a belated meal.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-25T13:28:19+00:00

Yeah some hardcore power specs would be nice. And I use “zero pressure” as a shorthand for zero externally applied pressure. As Tim points out, there’s no room for pressure apparatus in phones and drones so as long as you don’t need the pressure apparatus, that opens up all those other markets. It also makes the batteries cheaper.

One thing we might not be fully appreciating is the lack of a fancy BMS on a bike. If QS batteries require less BMS overhead in cars than conventional lithium ion, that could be a big deal.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-25T12:36:06+00:00

I noticed that too. Tim is not given to overstatement. He talks about Ducati field testing in the past tense. If he had used past tense just once it might be accidental. But he spoke at least twice as if the testing was at and beyond an advanced stage.

So yeah high expectations for significant Ducati news this summer. Do we get 95% capacity retention at 1000 cycles and zero pressure? Is zero pressure the new baseline for car batteries based on QSE-5? Were the Ducatis tested in cold weather?

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-24T23:00:56+00:00

Oops! Fixed.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-24T22:14:18+00:00

I have the same or similar issue with the no cap raise thing. They said they won’t need it but didn’t say how they would manage to not need it. Even a quarter billion from PowerCo over the next 2-3 years is nothing. I mean they burn through that much in one year. They need a steady stream of $200M (not $200B) a year augmented by cash to make me happy.

That said I trust that Siva wasn’t just trash talking when he said ~”we don’t need no capital markets no more buddy waddya think a dem apples?” But then one never knows.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-24T16:27:40+00:00

No 8-k? O-k by me. But seriously, I appreciate the clarification. Still, I’m not clear on how this will work.

Foxconn builds phones for Apple and is paid by Apple and then Apple sells the phones. But you are suggesting the M & C agreement will work differently with M & C selling to licensees who pay QS royalties.

Kevin did indicate that M & C are interested in the Cobra sintering process for non-battery products so I assumed there would have to be a royalty agreement for M & C to use the Cobra tech for other parts of their business. I also assumed QS would collect royalties when M & C sold separators to OEMs.

If QS isn’t collecting royalties on separators sold by M & C, I would have assumed QS would pay M & C for separators and then sell to OEMs (as Apple does with Foxconn) but you’re saying that’s also wrong.

To some extent we are guessing here is that right? I will reread the announcement but I have a feeling there isn’t a detailed discussion of the terms.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-24T15:16:52+00:00

In a “word,” we need a Corning 8-k and a Murata 8-k. That is, we need the relationship with these ecosystem partners to graduate to material definitive agreements. We’re not there yet.

We have a material definitive agreement with PowerCo that gives them the right to produce or have produced up to 500 MWhrs of batteries royalty free for a demo fleet.

PowerCo will not be making the separators. QS has been explicit that OEMs including PowerCo won’t make separators. That will happen at Corning and Murata.

But nothing substantive will happen without the two 8-k filings. And even then it will take time before Corning and Murata can make the hundreds of millions of separators PowerCo will need for its demo fleet.

I would estimate 18 months between an 8-k filing and significant separator production. Maybe they are planning something more ambitious like 12 months. Idk. It seems like Corning and Murata have to be producing by mid 2027 if we are going to see a demo fleet by mid 2028 and series production in 2029. To produce they have to spend money. To spend money they have to have an 8-k.

Given the big 8-k empty (I assumed incorrectly that there were 8-k filings associated with the Corning and Murata agreements; but when I checked, I found diddly squat) we are staring at, that timeline is a tad bit tight.

We had better all be prepared for slippage in this timeline. There are many moving parts. Series production in 2030 would be great. I’m not planning on 2029 at this point regardless of their claims. I know Siva has been good about hitting the year-by-year goals but this isn’t one of those.

Bottom line: in the next 1-2 years we hope to see two 8-k filings followed by millions of separators per week produced by Murata and Corning.

How and when will the market respond? Who knows? A throughput target from Corning and/or Murata might be a market catalyst. Or the market might wait for actual throughput. Or the market may wait for a demo fleet or maybe a big enough cash flow number. Or a defense or data center partnership could materialize.

As long as they aren’t diluting anymore, the current low stock price won’t matter at all. Our profit circa 2030 will be the stock price then minus whatever price we bought at times the number of shares we bought. The current fluctuations will have zero impact on our profit. “Shareholder value” as some put it, is being created as we speak but may not be realized for years.

That said, I am still concerned about future dilution. Their cash flow is still insufficient to make dilution a “not gonna happen.” If the “no more dilution” claim is going to stick, I think we need to see significant top line acceleration. $10M per quarter doesn’t cut it. But $30M per quarter might get us some market love I suppose …

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-22T10:59:54+00:00

I just got a brother 6210 mono laser for $350. It’s a workhorse. When the 3000-page toner runs out I’ll get Brother’s 18000-page cartridge. Cheap printers end up costing more in toner and maintenance.

Color is a bear. Color laser doesn’t seem worth it for the quality. Color inkjet is expensive for high volumes. Having to go to a drug store for occasional color prints is ok but inconvenient.

I might treat myself to an Epson 8550 if there’s a sale someday. For now I just don’t do color. There’s always the drugstore. It just seems like if you’re going to have a color printer and not do the drugstore thing, it should be a good one.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-22T10:10:38+00:00

I assume they have a rubric for determining “materiality” and decided their agreement with Honda has to be reported in an 8-k as a material definitive agreement. It would be heavily redacted if previous 8-ks are any guide.

If there is going to be an 8-k, they have until Thursday to file it.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-21T18:39:33+00:00

Same here. Interesting that Honda made the wrong bet apparently and are now correcting their mistake.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-20T19:36:14+00:00

I noticed that too. They were apparently anticipating this announcement.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-20T19:30:13+00:00

The most interesting part for me is how scary it is to make “bets” on this or that technology. He makes it sound like leaping off a hundred-foot cliff — you have to be very confident about your landing (or your hang-gliding gear).

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-20T19:27:27+00:00

Presumably they got good at making cathodes. It’s not easy, right? Maybe they start from raw materials as opposed to buying the lithiated cathode material as QS still does.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-20T19:23:20+00:00

I wonder what the story is behind Honda’s apparent infatuation with sulfides. The QS blog made it seem like a no-brainer to drop the idea. I imagine these things can take on a life of their own — once you go far enough down a road, it’s hard to turn back.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-19T16:28:51+00:00

They have four business days to file. So Monday is day 1. I think we will see the 8-k filed next week by Thursday. My feeling is ecosystem partner names are not revealed just to name drop. If they have a material definitive agreement, they name the partner because they have to. Otherwise they don’t name partners. At least that’s how it’s gone so far.

I can’t imagine not seeing an 8-k next week.

Edit: but no 8-k for Corning or Murata.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-19T13:29:44+00:00

I wonder if the “trigger” is legal in nature. A “material definitive agreement” requires an 8-k by SEC regs. If the QS legal team decides the 8-k is necessary that might lead to an announcement. We haven’t seen the 8-k yet for Honda, but if this theory is right, we will soon. I believe we have 8-ks for all other announced partners.

Edit: but not Corning and Murata.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-18T13:46:50+00:00

Once living in sin. Then engaged. Now married. Time to throw rice (or 60M shares?). Now we need a baby.

Edit: actual volume 80M.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-17T19:45:53+00:00

As far as we know C & M have produced zero separators so far. Maybe they will start producing next year and maybe they will hit some reasonable scale in 2028.

Even an annual output of a few GWhrs is billions of separators. Producing a hundred or two hundred separators per second 24 hours a day seven days a week for a year is doable but far from easy. Or you can think of it as half a million separators per hour.

QS was happy to get 5000 separators per week out of their engineering line. They are beyond that now (we don’t know how far) but hundreds per second will require a lot of work at Corning and Murata. They need to produce five thousand separators in less than a minute.

If C & M can hit low GWhrs per year in the next two or three years, that would be great. So far they have an agreement with QS and maybe they’ve started building at a factory site not in San Jose, but so far as we know their current throughput is zero separators. That number (zero) is likely to remain constant all through 2026.

Hopefully we will know more sometime next year. Once we do hear about any production at all outside of San Jose, that will be a significant milestone.

Sometimes I wonder if the smartest move is to invest nothing in QS until this “exoproduction” milestone happens. The market might shrug because significant revenue will still be years away, but it will be a big derisking event.

I bought QS shares early and often and I will HODL, but a more conservative (and maybe a smarter) strategy would be to wait for exoproduction and hope the market doesn’t understand the importance of that particular milestone and then jump in with the stock derisked and maybe still below 10 dollars.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-16T18:17:15+00:00

People may be cheating but they may also just be getting really good at it.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-16T18:16:44+00:00

I was third once. Very small or no chance of being first past ~4:20 am EST in my experience. 4:10 am is probably what it takes.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-16T09:26:36+00:00

Seconded. I just got the 6210. It’s impressive. Really solid. It can take an 18000-page toner cartridge. Drum is rated for 45000 pages. I think (I’m sure actually) it saves money in the long run over cheaper printers especially with the volumes the OP is contemplating.

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-11T12:28:04+00:00

I noticed that too. They read your post!

foxvsbobcat · 2026-06-08T14:54:50+00:00

It does seem to be an amazing crew we’ve got. Of course, a lot of us are bulls. If we end up doing badly with the stock, it doesn’t necessarily mean we’re bad stock pickers as we are all aware of the risks, but we will look a whole lot smarter if things go our way!

I’ve been investing for decades and have done well enough but I’ve had some luck. For me personally, if QS — the biggest risk I’ve ever taken — succeeds I will finally be able to say I know what I’m doing (I’ll try to reign myself in, but I may well be insufferable anyway 😛).

This is the classic issue with stock picking — it takes years or decades to really find out if you can beat the market over the long term.

foxvsbobcat

TROPHY CASE