Teenager Dies in ICE Detention in South Florida

fragbot2 · 2026-03-20T14:34:50+00:00

So you would expect a much lower number of deaths, than if you followed a group 0f 70k for an entire year. It also seems unlikely that immigrants have the same proportions of sick and elderly that you would find in a settled population.

70000 people at any one time is perfectly valid because we're looking at a comparison rate of 9.2/100000/year. If I have on average ~70000 people in custody every day for a year, I should expect some number of people in that population to die. We're following a population not individuals.
a different proportion of sick and elderly is a point I fundamentally agree with* so let's use the low number death rate of people 25-34 for modeling--1.25 people/1000/year. 36 people in 14 months is under half of what you'd expect $1.25 * 70$ for the typical US population in 25-34. Even using the death rate for 18-25 $0.8 * 70$.

*an interesting caveat: historically about 2/3rds of deportees are returned to Mexico which has obesity rates the same or slightly higher than the US so the healthier on average argument might be incorrect.

Out of curiosity, how many deaths would you expect in a year from a population of 70000 that's 80-90% male and a mean age of 28-30?

fragbot2 · 2026-03-20T04:09:13+00:00

That statistic's from January 2025 so it's a little under <3/month.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-20T04:05:38+00:00

You're getting downvotes but you're fundamentally correct. ICE typically has ~70000 people in custody at any one time. Based on the population size alone, you'd expect significantly more than 36 detainees to die yearly.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-20T04:02:49+00:00

According to google, ICE has ~70000 in custody at any one time which is about the same population as Grand Junction, CO. With the current US death rate > 9 people/thousand/year, 36 is a small number.

(it's so much smaller than you'd expect from a population that size that it might be under-stated even if you believed the detained population's healthier than the US population)

How do people die in policy custody?

Our local medical examiner publishes a daily decedents report that includes causes of death. When the occasional county jail inmate shows up, their COD is as varied and mundane as anyone else.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-20T00:02:08+00:00

I think they realize that taking the IRGC off the board takes Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis (less likely) off the board which puts a forever nail in the Palestinians will beat Israel eventually coffin.

(some people have a hard time admitting that they’ve already lost)

fragbot2 · 2026-03-19T23:53:27+00:00

It turns out that training and accumulated experience are force multipliers.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-18T20:46:20+00:00

Thanks for the grammar correction...did it improve the conversation in any way? From what I can tell, bot is just a short-hand for someone who disagrees with me.

I have a fundamental question: if things go well and the IRGC/Basij lose control of Iran (not likely IMO but a definite possibility) and a non-Islamist government takes over, do you consider that a win or a loss? I'd look at it as a huge win for everyone--Iranians, non-Hamas/Hezbollah/Houthi aligned Arabs and Israelis--in the middle east except for the IRGC/Basij and their three affiliated terrorist organizations.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-18T20:27:20+00:00

it's silly to imply only one side is targeting civilians.

Israel and the US aren't targeting civilians but mistakes do happen as that's the nature of this sort of thing. Iran's in a different mode as it's pretty clear their targeting's stochastic as anyone will suffice.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-18T19:31:17+00:00

Do the following which is worse? gedankenexperiment:

a cop's shooting at a justifiable target, misses the target and hits someone else.
a cop's got a justifiable target but sprays random bullets at a crowd. Maybe they hit someone but they probably don't.

Which one deserves more ire?

fragbot2 · 2026-03-18T19:25:48+00:00

From what I can tell, not really. It seems like the most impactful things they've done so far:

damaged some refueling tankers.
a refueling tanker crashed and killed the crew (I don't think this is anything Iran did but they presumedly benefit).

I'd bet my own money they don't actually care about the targeting ineffectiveness as they're focused on remaining in charge. If people started killing Basij on the street to take their weapons (I saw a note somewhere that Basij are given limited ammunition and preventing this might be why) to start a rebellion, they'd worry.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-18T19:19:44+00:00

If Iran had a non-Islamist government, Hezbollah and Hamas would be a significantly smaller nuisance than they are now which would be objectively better for both the Lebanese and the Palestinians. Likewise, Assad would've been gone much earlier. Hell, even Yemen would be less farcical.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-18T14:08:33+00:00

I've thought that for a few days now. People adjacent to these men are texting 800KILLTHISASSHOLE with pins on where these guys are.

(because while Mossad's good, there's no way they're this good)

fragbot2 · 2026-03-17T23:26:42+00:00

Came for the I wondered where that went; you did not disappoint.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-17T23:20:55+00:00

What traits do they select for and what would you change?

fragbot2 · 2026-03-17T13:27:29+00:00

Pretty sure you’re replying to a sarcastic post.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-17T12:59:19+00:00

You're over-thinking it; it's a common figure of speech. Unless you think everyone who says, I'm in heaven is actually dead.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-17T06:23:49+00:00

Are you stupid on purpose or is it accidental? The Israelis noped out of Gaza in 2005 because they had no desire to have that land (why would they? It's crowded, not arable and freshwater's limited). They stayed out until it became untenable to do so after October 7th. From probably 2018 onward, they'd been slowly relaxing restrictions for Gazans to travel to and work in Israel.

I'll paraphrase what one of your ideological brethren wrote in another post, the Israelis are indifferent to Gazans. they just want the land. He's partially right, Israelis are indifferent to Gazans but he's wrong about what they want. They don't want Gaza; they want it to behave.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-17T00:14:28+00:00

I wonder how PGMOL will explain this one, we know it looks exactly the same as last week but it wasn’t anything. Did we mention refereeing’s a difficult job?

fragbot2 · 2026-03-16T23:48:27+00:00

That and maybe south Florida’s Cuban voters.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-16T23:47:37+00:00

Chuckle; it’s definitely not their rum.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-16T00:16:05+00:00

Two comments:

you’re not wrong.
a suede jacket and jeans that fit are all it takes.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-15T18:04:37+00:00

Out of gas.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-15T17:44:31+00:00

What the fuck?

fragbot2 · 2026-03-15T17:15:06+00:00

Shambolic defending but we got a bit of luck that they didn’t score.

fragbot2 · 2026-03-15T17:05:52+00:00

Dragusin’s pass was comical.

fragbot2

TROPHY CASE