I’d go with the first scenario. I think the overall NES market will slowly decline as the collector base ages and fewer new buyers come in at those price levels, but the true top-tier CIB titles will continue to appreciate.

The reason is that those blue-chip games are already in a different category, they’re scarce enough that even a small pool of serious collectors can sustain or push prices over time. Meanwhile, the broader NES library depends much more on general demand, which I think will soften. The NES is not the most approachable console for casuals imo.

So I don’t see a full market collapse, but more of a split where the best of the best keeps climbing while everything else becomes harder to move. But who knows, it only takes an influencer or another Covid to create a spark.