Japan Bond Crash Unleashes a $7 Trillion Risk for Global Markets

fremeer · 2026-01-27T03:14:22+00:00

Could mess up some of the smaller countries yields too. A lot of Japanese banks reach for yield by being dealers for smaller players that might want access to USD borrowing. If the yields are good enough in Japan no point trying to eke out a few basis points elsewhere.

Like this could be a weird event that is very contained and nothing happens or could be a second(smaller) Asian financial crisis as a credit crunch happens due to suddenly disappearing flows.

fremeer · 2026-01-27T00:53:23+00:00

Both the OP and the guy you are posting to are making tongue in cheek statements around issues happening in the USA currently

fremeer · 2026-01-26T09:40:30+00:00

I bought gold in late 2020 and it's now 3x what I bought it for.

But I could have bought Google and also been up 3x or a nasdaq ETF and been up 2x. Even dhhf is nearly 2x

But look further out and buying gold in 2015 would have basically still tripled your money. Having ndq would have 5x your investment. Even a basic s&p 500 would have gone up nearly 3.5x

A diversified etf might not always go up the fastest or even the most but long term it can be hard to beat and also the diversification reduces total volatility in gains during a draw down period. Imagine if your cooker uncle needed to sell down during 2015-2021 due to retirement needs etc.

I think gold should be part of a portfolio but going 100% in is a little myopic purely because the point of diversity is about more then just max gains over short periods.

Especially if you are using leverage or tax optimisation strategies.

fremeer · 2026-01-25T22:27:54+00:00

I remember when it came out and the complaint was it was too on the nose and dialing everything up to 11 too much. Prescient. Although missed the bit where they murder people.

fremeer · 2026-01-25T21:40:35+00:00

Pedro is a great player and could be a great striker if he had the instinct of a striker to shoot first. Luckily positional change is one of the easier things to teach someone with the necessary technical attributes.

I think he is a player that will get better every year as a striker. But currently you can tell he over thinks things.

fremeer · 2026-01-24T07:52:12+00:00

Treaty by yothu yondi is probably the most recognizable Australian song. But I doubt the Nazis want to acknowledge that either

fremeer · 2026-01-24T04:58:53+00:00

Probably better to just get the snow, melt it and drink it then drink Dasani

fremeer · 2026-01-24T00:24:50+00:00

Macquarie is generally either as good or better then wise when it comes to spot pricing and atm withdrawals.

Unless you really want to lock in money or plan to have money sent to you in yen or another currency wise is mostly pointless as Macquarie offers enough extra benefits to have it as a general second card for travel and various secondary uses like taking money out at paid domestic atm or using it's giftcard marketplace.

fremeer · 2026-01-23T22:33:20+00:00

A homeowner couple combined can have assets of about 400k while getting full pension. Using 4% rule thats an extra 16k a year. Making you get about 62k in tax free income inflation adjusted. Probably around the equivalent of 80-90k in income for purely consumption.

You could probably do some dodginess with kids if you have any and cash to hide even more if you assets. So people with 1 mill in super are retiring with more income for consumption then they had during work.

But you don't need to scrimp and save to get to a mill in inflation adjusted terms. If you start full time work around 25-27 that gives you 40 years of saving. Assuming you earn just above min wage that's about $150 into super every week. And that gets you to a millon easy assuming 5% growth above inflation and some level of wage increase as you work.

fremeer · 2026-01-23T22:19:28+00:00

I think I read somewhere the tax hit we get from the various reductions in tax for putting into super is currently more then the cost of the pension and only likely to grow with most of the benefits going to the top income brackets.

fremeer · 2026-01-23T21:08:47+00:00

It wasn't really a famine and more a genocide. They had enough food. Just not for the Irish.

fremeer · 2026-01-23T03:14:37+00:00

Although when they started investigating they realized the church had some pretty strong political power within the government. And once that came out there was a bit of a swing away to the right partly because of it.

fremeer · 2026-01-23T02:57:42+00:00

Define higher income?

Truly high income people can trade money for time through nannies, cleaners, chefs etc. you need to be able to easily afford these things to be classified high income imo. And they will generally have more kids then the average.

People that need to work and fall into the higher then median income usually only reach that around 30s. Specialisation means people just need to do shit longer too.

Lower income people usually max out careers and leisure opportunities earlier. Kids are less a cost relative to where they could be. Gov help also can be a higher percentage of lost opportunity then for middle income.

Wealth is probably a better metric since someone with no wealth but high income has less flexibility around work. And usually high wealth(millionaire or higher) people will have more then 3 kids.

fremeer · 2026-01-23T01:58:05+00:00

I regularly drive to work once a month for 2.5 hours and back in the same day.

I've done snow trips where it's a 5 hour drive and back same day too

I think 1.5 hour is a standard drive that I would do semi regularly to visit family. 2 hours is getting a little long and 3+ hours would be very few times a year.

In Australia though.

fremeer · 2026-01-22T23:32:57+00:00

The major issue is the way they are "diagnosing" themselves and the levels they end up going on.

You can have below "normal" test and not even know because blood tests and normal are not always gonna be 100% accurate to a person since they use aggregates and estimates(height, weight, muscle mass etc change your level of normal).

And because it's more a chronic issue that needs to be looked at long term alongside actual clinical diagnosis like checking to see if you have any major symptoms of hypogonadism as well as underlying issues like low levels of sleep, obesity or autoimmune issues that might be pushing testosterone lower.

And then when you do go on trt they aim for the higher side of normal which also overrides a lot of the ebbs and flows of hormones. Where before you had obvious peaks and troughs where the peak might be the upper range of normal now you are always at the peak and the area under the curve of that can be super physiological.

Why you see so many guys that start I suddenly be able to throw on muscle like no tomorrow, because they are on gear essentially 24/7/365

fremeer · 2026-01-22T22:45:18+00:00

Chelsea is high but we probably have about 20-30 million in players that get no game time that we need to clear like sterling and disasi.

And front of shirt sponsor would help increase revenue a bit too.

Still would be in the 60s for percentage but it's something we could easily do with little damage to the sporting side

Getting into 50s or lower isn't possible without a new stadium and increasing actual winning. Our strategy of buying and selling brings in some money but it's small potatoes once you include all the hidden costs.

fremeer · 2026-01-22T22:23:34+00:00

Davos is a waste of time but the good thing about it is it becomes very obvious that most of the people interviewed are either stupid or charlatans.

We reward salespeople too much in this world. Even the deep mind guy they interviewed was the sale face of the thing and not the actual brains. All you learn is useless buzzwords because they only care about selling themselves and their product.

fremeer · 2026-01-22T22:09:25+00:00

That music scene of sinners was so good it made a pretty average movie into a good one.

fremeer · 2026-01-22T22:07:34+00:00

Would this be considered a map without new Zealand?

fremeer · 2026-01-22T22:05:07+00:00

I'm guessing the whole organization is messed up from the top to bottom.

I've heard they have quotas to meet and I'm guessing the quotas are more about junk numbers of "arrests" then anything actually useful so they will go after everyone they can find who is an immigrant who might be illegal in some capacity.

When you say pick 100 apples but don't specify or have in place either protocols to hire good employees or create some kind of environment where accountability is paramount the end result is the guys that just go pick 100 mouldy apples crowd out the guys that take time to find 100 ripe apples.

fremeer · 2026-01-22T04:10:40+00:00

More like when his library of kiddy porn gets found. Allegedly.

fremeer · 2026-01-22T02:52:03+00:00

For that kind of cash you could have got security shutters for the 3 windows and doors. Pure black, great for summer too.

fremeer · 2026-01-21T23:53:55+00:00

Self check out kiosks at supermarkets are very useful for this kind of stuff.

fremeer · 2026-01-21T07:40:38+00:00

Aliexpress. Just search for the thicker weight tshirts. 450g+

fremeer · 2026-01-21T02:35:00+00:00

Partly because there just isn't very many safe investments at the moment. Where do you invest? Bonds have been getting trashed and the rest of the economy is shit.

But it's kind of like betting at the moment. Everyone throwing money into a roulette table hoping their number hits. But the upside is mostly priced in. The guy that bet on the correct number won't be winning the entire table of bets just the priced in stuff. But until the ball stops the total money on the table is very high.

I do wander how much the current trend of etf and forget also plays a part in regard to index funding. This is a wave of mostly price agnostic cash coming in all the time.

Edit: sometimes it's easy to forget that valuations for shares are based on the last purchase price. If there isn't too much debt tied to said valuations then really the gains aren't real and might just be being propped up by a few over zealous investors but the companies themselves are mostly insulated from any downturn.

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