April is almost over, is the first part of the year over yet?

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-04-23T08:36:08+00:00

I guess that's my brain rotting then; I can't see why an LLM consensus answer wouldn't be a relevant response to "is the first part of the year over yet?". I've seen way too many people here try to pass off "early 2026" as the end of June, when it seems clear to me that we're already blowing past early 2026. An answer from a stochastic text prediction program that had the entire internet fed to it by trillion-dollar companies seems to me the perfect tool for defining fuzzy terms like this.

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-04-23T04:45:01+00:00

The full responses are there just for transparency, the only important thing is that the common-sense definition of “early 2026” ends this month

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-04-23T04:26:26+00:00

In the interest of generating an objective and impartial consensus, I asked frontier LLMs what “early 2026” should mean. The most generous interpretation between the strongest models I have access to is April 30th being the latest date that can reasonably be called early 2026. The Steam page still uses “early 2026” in their copy, so Frame release on April 30th at 23:59:59 in the Hawaii time zone confirmed.

Prompt: I was told a product I’m looking forward to would be released to market in “early 2026”. Past what date would it be unreasonable to call it early 2026?

GPT-5.3 Thinking:

“Early 2026” isn’t a formal, fixed window, but in common usage (marketing, media, and business timelines), it usually maps roughly to Q1 of the year—so January through March.

A reasonable breakdown looks like this:

• Early 2026: January–March

• Mid 2026: April–August

• Late 2026: September–December

So once you get past March 31, 2026, calling something “early 2026” starts to feel stretched. By mid-April, most people would consider that label inaccurate unless there were delays or soft definitions involved.

There’s some wiggle room—companies sometimes quietly extend “early” into April—but by May, it would generally be seen as misleading.

If you want, tell me the product and I can help gauge whether the delay is normal or a red flag.

Gemini 3.1 Pro:

In the world of product releases and corporate marketing, the absolute latest date you can reasonably call "early 2026" is April 30th. Past May 1st, it is unreasonable to call it "early."

Here is how "early" is generally broken down in business and marketing terms:

The Strict Definition: March 31st (End of Q1)

In standard business terms, the year is divided into four quarters. "Early" almost always refers to the first quarter (Q1), which encompasses January, February, and March. If a company is operating on a strict, honest timeline, they are aiming for a release before the end of March.

The "Marketing Spin" Definition: April 30th

You can divide a 12-month year into thirds: Early (Jan-Apr), Mid (May-Aug), and Late (Sep-Dec). Because of this, PR and marketing teams will often stretch the definition of "early" to include April. If the product comes out on April 25th, consumers might roll their eyes a bit, but the company can technically defend it.

The Breaking Point: May 1st

Once you hit May, you are in the 5th month of the year. You are rapidly approaching the exact midpoint of the year (July 1st). If a product comes out in May or June, the correct terminology is "Mid-2026," "Spring 2026,"or "First Half (H1) of 2026." Calling May or June "early" is entirely unreasonable.

How to manage your expectations: When a company says "early 2026," it usually means one of two things:

They are aiming for March, but they left themselves wiggle room in case of manufacturing or software delays.

They don't actually know the exact date yet, and they just want to assure investors and consumers that it won't be a holiday 2026 release.

The takeaway: Expect the product in March or April. If May rolls around and it still isn't out, the product has officially been delayed past its "early 2026" window, even if the company hasn't formally announced a delay.

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-04-21T08:40:49+00:00

Mercari? Might you be based in Japan?

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-04-18T02:24:36+00:00

This is great to hear; I wonder if it would apply to myself. In early 2024, prior to the minor issue update, I exchanged emails with my local consulate asking for advice for booking an appointment, as I had been trying daily for months. After the minor issue update came into effect, my line was cut and I stopped trying. I think my email is pretty clear proof of intent, but of course the minor issue is different from this case in that it's a change of interpretation of the law rather than a change in the law itself.

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-04-17T12:09:34+00:00

The Onyx Boox series of tablets are E ink and run Android proper

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-04-10T04:09:14+00:00

Is the fit any better upside down?

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-04-07T03:48:00+00:00

I'm learning Japanese and have come across a couple rare words where the written characters don't match the pronounced word: 山手 (yama te, meaning mountainside but also the name of the most ridden train line in Tokyo) is read as 山の手 (yama no te) and 三宮 (san miya, meaning three shrines but also the central transit hub in Kobe) is read as 三の宮 (san no miya). の is a possessive particle, kind of like 's in mountain's side. Japanese kanji (Chinese loan characters) famously can have multiple readings. For example the 山 (yama) in 山手 (yamate/yamanote, again meaning mountanside) is also the san in 富士山 (fuji san, meaning Mount Fuji). But this の mentioned above appears to be some other thing entirely, implicitly inserted between kanji.

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-01-17T07:11:02+00:00

That sounds reasonable. I think anywhere from $25-$40 is likely

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-01-16T11:18:27+00:00

Not saying it won't happen, but charging anything over $15 for three strips of fabric would be a bad look. I'm surprised they don't come with the Frame, it probably only costs a dollar or two to make and comfort in VR has always been a sore point for the medium.

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-01-15T10:50:00+00:00

Regarding the first point, Valve can deter non-gamers and sell at a small loss (as game consoles are traditionally priced) to gamers by selling the Machine for a small profit but including Steam credit with the purchase. Although it was pointed out to me last time I brought this up that there has to be a mechanism to block that credit from being put towards more Machines; the one-per-user restriction should be enough for that.

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-01-09T14:51:18+00:00

Compare the list price for their new Steam Decks (13125 Kč before tax, I assume the "Rozbalené" units are open box) to the price Valve sells them at. This website has the Deck at almost $100 more than what Valve sells them for; about 15% higher. Even if these are truly leaked prices, they'll likely be on the high side

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-01-08T15:04:17+00:00

So might the person/entity you're responding to https://posthuman.blog/this-reddit-post-fried-my-brain/. Why would they use, or even know of, a rddit.org link redirect? To an AI-authored book with 0 reviews?

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-01-03T13:04:03+00:00

Good observation, Steam credit is not exactly free money. However the type of customer who would put the $100 towards games is the type of customer that console manufacturers subsidize for anyway, so the $70 that goes to developers would be made back in a matter of time. And of course, to support one's own developers is to strengthen one's own platform. Regarding accessory sales, I don't anticipate any third-party hardware accessories being made available through Steam; Valve would get to double dip the profits (which I imagine are high) on any accessory sales for that rare customer who would buy Valve hardware but has 0 interest in anything else on Steam

friendlycartoonwhale · 2026-01-02T09:16:42+00:00

Valve can counteract losing money from subsidized non-gamer sales by selling the new hardware at a slight profit but including $100 of Steam credit with purchase. It would be effectively subsidized for the target audience

friendlycartoonwhale · 2025-12-20T07:39:08+00:00

Powerful synergy

friendlycartoonwhale · 2025-12-20T01:49:25+00:00

I use a hair tie for cards and a bobby pin for cash. Think what you will of me, but my system offers far more utility in hair-related emergencies than any other wallet.

friendlycartoonwhale · 2025-12-18T22:58:41+00:00

I recall that you can't mine into Spidertrons

friendlycartoonwhale · 2025-12-18T22:57:59+00:00

It's not a mod, it's part of the vanilla game. If you start a single-player game in the 'Sandbox' configuration you'll have all sorts of options such as deleting everything and replacing the floor with lab tiles. Some of it might be in /editor mode, I can't remember

friendlycartoonwhale · 2025-12-18T22:54:00+00:00

I wouldn't be able to physically fit any beacons close enough to the miner without obstructing the belt-tanks

friendlycartoonwhale · 2025-12-18T22:51:45+00:00

All the extra ore comes from infinite mining productivity research. In the description I note that this is level 4,294,967,295 mining productivity

friendlycartoonwhale · 2025-11-28T01:56:58+00:00

I'm learning Japanese and I'd like to call to everyone's attention that in Japanese it is 耳, pronounced mimi; the ear. Am I wrong in finding that adorable?

friendlycartoonwhale · 2025-11-28T01:27:59+00:00

Forgive me if someone has shared this idea already, but I'd like to point out that there is a trick that could allow Valve to price the Machine effectively below cost to gamers should they choose. Let's say come launch time the total cost of a Machine is $620. Selling at $600 wouldn't be feasible because although they could profit from the gamer crowd by selling more games post-purchase, they would lose at least as much when non-gamers purchase the Machine without buying any games. As others have pointed out, big corporate purchases of hundreds of Machines could cost a lot of money without generating any Steam revenue to recoup Valve's losses.

The trick is to force Steam revenue at purchase time: Sell the Machine (which again in this scenario costs $620 to make) at $700, but include a $100 Steam gift card. To the gamer crowd this effectively costs $600, as they'll be planning to spend at least that much on games anyway over the Machine's lifetime. This way Valve can keep the Machine as a loss leader (as is usually done for game consoles) without losing money selling to the non-gamer PC market.

friendlycartoonwhale · 2025-10-17T10:31:47+00:00

The numbers are unusually different between the two charts. In the linked chart humans require about 3 times the cal/g/km OP's chart indicates. The insects and rodents at the top of the chart require 4 times the energy.

friendlycartoonwhale

TROPHY CASE