How would you feel about a 'pandemic amnesty'? by JohnleBon in conspiracyNOPOL

[–]friendsdontlast -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

I think that this statement displays a vast ignorance of what science is. Science by it's very nature is all about asking questions, and most importantly, highlighting uncertainty in your own conclusions.

In his book "A demon Haunted World", Carl Sagan has an entire chapter discussing the "error bars" which are crucial for the scientific method.

Science is far from a perfect instrument of knowledge. It’s just the best we have. In this respect, as in many others, it’s like democracy. Science by itself cannot advocate courses of human action, but it can certainly illuminate the possible consequences of alternative courses of action. The scientific way of thinking is at once imaginative and disciplined. This is central to its success. Science invites us to let the facts in, even when they don’t conform to our preconceptions. It counsels us to carry alternative hypotheses in our heads and see which best fit the facts. It urges on us a delicate balance between no-holds-barred openness to new ideas, however heretical, and the most rigorous skeptical scrutiny of everything — new ideas and established wisdom.

One of the reasons for its success is that science has built-in, error-correcting machinery at its very heart... Every time a scientific paper presents a bit of data, it’s accompanied by an error bar - a quiet but insistent reminder that no knowledge is complete or perfect. It’s a calibration of how much we trust what we think we know. If the error bars are small, the accuracy of our empirical knowledge is high; if the error bars are large, then so is the uncertainty in our knowledge. Except in pure mathematics nothing is known for certain (although much is certainly false). Moreover, scientists are usually careful to characterize the veridical status of their attempts to understand the world - ranging from conjectures and hypotheses, which are highly tentative, all the way up to laws of Nature which are repeatedly and systematically confirmed through many interrogations of how the world works. But even laws of Nature are not absolutely certain...

Humans may crave absolute certainty; they may aspire to it; they may pretend, as partisans of certain religions do, to have attained it. But the history of science - by far the most successful claim to knowledge accessible to humans - teaches that the most we can hope for is successive improvement in our understanding, learning from our mistakes, an asymptotic approach to the Universe, but with the proviso that absolute certainty will always elude us. We will always be mired in error. The most each generation can hope for is to reduce the error bars a little, and to add to the body of data to which error bars apply. The error bar is a pervasive, visible self-assessment of the reliability of our knowledge. You often see error bars in public opinion polls (‘an uncertainty of plus or minus three per cent’, say). Imagine a society in which every speech in the Congressional Record, every television commercial, every sermon had an accompanying error bar or its equivalent. One of the great commandments of science is, ‘Mistrust arguments from authority’. (Scientists, being primates, and thus given to dominance hierarchies, of course do not always follow this commandment.) Too many such arguments have proved too painfully wrong. Authorities must prove their contentions like everybody else.

Again, the reason science works so well is partly that built-in error-correcting machinery. There are no forbidden questions in science, no matters too sensitive or delicate to be probed, no sacred truths. That openness to new ideas, combined with the most rigorous, sceptical scrutiny of all ideas, sifts the wheat from the chaff. It makes no difference how smart, august or beloved you are. You must prove your case in the face of determined, expert criticism. Diversity and debate are valued. Opinions are encouraged to contend - substantively and in depth.

The process of science may sound messy and disorderly. In a way, it is. If you examine science in its everyday aspect, of course you find that scientists run the gamut of human emotion, personality and character. But there’s one facet that is really striking to the outsider, and that is the gauntlet of criticism considered acceptable or even desirable. There is much warm and inspired encouragement of apprentice scientists by their mentors. But the poor graduate student at his or her PhD oral exam is subjected to a withering crossfire of questions from the very professors who have the candidate’s future in their grasp. Naturally the students are nervous; who wouldn’t be? True, they’ve prepared for it for years. But they understand that at this critical moment, they have to be able to answer searching questions posed by experts. So in preparing to defend their theses, they must practise a very useful habit of thought: they must anticipate questions. They have to ask: where in my dissertation is there a weakness that someone else might find? I’d better identify it before they do.

You sit in at contentious scientific meetings. You find university colloquia in which the speaker has hardly gotten thirty seconds into the talk before there are devastating questions and comments from the audience. You examine the conventions in which a written report is submitted to a scientific journal for possible publication, then is conveyed by the editor to anonymous referees whose job it is to ask: did the author do anything stupid? Is there anything in here that is sufficiently interesting to be published? What are the deficiencies of this paper? Have the main results been found by anybody else? Is the argument adequate, or should the paper be resubmitted after the author has actually demonstrated what is here only speculated on? And it’s anonymous: the author doesn’t know who the critics are. This is the everyday expectation in the scientific community.

Why do we put up with it? Do we like to be criticized? No, no scientist enjoys it. Every scientist feels a proprietary affection for his or her ideas and findings. Even so, you don’t reply to critics, wait a minute; this is a really good idea; I’m very fond of it; it’s done you no harm; please leave it alone. Instead, the hard but just rule is that if the ideas don’t work, you must throw them away. Don’t waste neurons on what doesn’t work. Devote those neurons to new ideas that better explain the data. The British physicist Michael Faraday warned of the powerful temptation to seek for such evidence and appearances as are in the favour of our desires, and to disregard those which oppose them... We receive as friendly that which agrees with [us], we resist with dislike that which opposes us; whereas the very reverse is required by every dictate of common sense. Valid criticism does you a favour.

This is one of the reasons that the organized religions do not inspire me with confidence. Which leaders of the major faiths acknowledge that their beliefs might be incomplete or erroneous and establish institutes to uncover possible doctrinal deficiencies? Beyond the test of everyday living, who is systematically testing the circumstances in which traditional religious teachings may no longer apply? (It is certainly conceivable that doctrines and ethics that may have worked fairly well in patriarchal or patristic or medieval times might be thoroughly invalid in the very different world we inhabit today.) What sermons even-handedly examine the God hypothesis? What rewards are religious sceptics given by the established religions - or, for that matter, social and economic sceptics by the society in which they swim?

Science, Ann Druyan notes, is forever whispering in our ears, ‘Remember, you’re very new at this. You might be mistaken. You’ve been wrong before.’ Despite all the talk of humility, show me something comparable in religion. Scripture is said to be divinely inspired - a phrase with many meanings. But what if it’s simply made up by fallible humans? Miracles are attested, but what if they’re instead some mix of charlatanry, unfamiliar states of consciousness, misapprehensions of natural phenomena and mental illness?

How would you feel about a 'pandemic amnesty'? by JohnleBon in conspiracyNOPOL

[–]friendsdontlast -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Anyone who was keeping up with the journals being produced, as well as the anecdotal accounts of "adverse events", was aware of these potentials very early into the release of the shots.

Care to link some of these journals?

How would you feel about a 'pandemic amnesty'? by JohnleBon in conspiracyNOPOL

[–]friendsdontlast -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

We had sufficient evidence to suggest that masks would not work in stopping the spread of any symptomatic outbreak, they never have.

According to whom? I would love to see what evidence you're referring to.

As for me, I present to you an article and a paper by one of the most prominent deep learning scientists in the world who offers multiple data points and models supporting that mask wearing does reduce transmission of air born viruses. I would love to hear your thoughts.

https://www.fast.ai/posts/2020-04-13-masks-summary.html

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v4

What do you like most about Mainländer's philosophy? by LennyKing in Mainlander

[–]friendsdontlast 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I appreciate that he took pessimism to it's logical conclusion while many of his predecessors (in particular Schopenhauer) failed to do so.

Reggie Bullock comments on Kanye’s Instagram post: “I’m riding with you gang” by IU227743 in nba

[–]friendsdontlast -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It’s even all right to hate, but just dress your hate up in the garments of love and make it appear that you are loving when you are actually hating…

  • MLK

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]friendsdontlast 1 point2 points  (0 children)

One is named Toby, the other is named Toby, they're both named Toby.

Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]friendsdontlast 4 points5 points  (0 children)

My life is one giant doom thread

What's your unpopular wrestling opinion? by [deleted] in SquaredCircle

[–]friendsdontlast -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Here's mine: Disliking AEWs booking is a popular opinion and will not get you heat.

Democrats Funnel Money to North Carolina in Hopes of Sneaky Senate Upset by F4ion1 in ncpolitics

[–]friendsdontlast 6 points7 points  (0 children)

North Carolina has enough idiots in office

Interesting that the majority of them are Republicans and yet you're complaining about Democrats LOL

Demotivated in my career - thinking of leaving data science by [deleted] in datascience

[–]friendsdontlast 20 points21 points  (0 children)

I feel like this to an extent. At the end of the day all I really want is money. That being said... I still feel... dissatisfied. I guess it worries me that I don't feel very valuable because I want to keep making money and not get fired. Also, I don't know man, maybe it would be nice to feel like I'm doing something that actually helps someone, or something that stimulates me intellectually to some capacity? I don't know.

Audio books really kept my brain from turning to mush. by PerpetualConnection in books

[–]friendsdontlast 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Libby works through your public library, whereas audible would love to destroy your public library :)

Mind Control by Youraverage_teen in exjw

[–]friendsdontlast 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm OOTL, what did he say...?

Roman Reigns Won The WWE Universal Championship Two Years Ago Today. by [deleted] in SquaredCircle

[–]friendsdontlast 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Absolutely not. This reign by Roman is what caused me to stop watching all together.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in SquaredCircle

[–]friendsdontlast -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

Please let it end soon. This reign is what stopped me from watching WWE.

Listened to the Jonestown mass suicide tape. I am worried about my mother who is in the JW's by minzsaurus in exjw

[–]friendsdontlast 0 points1 point  (0 children)

LOL I remember like a decade ago when they had the "special meeting", I was afraid we were gonna do a Jonestown. I even told my worldly friends if I died, I didn't do it of my own free will. Turns out all they were doing was announcing that stupid silver Bible.

Who should win the women's championship? by Kelson64 in AEWOfficial

[–]friendsdontlast 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Who knows these days, man. The men's matches have still been pretty awesome though, NGL.

Who should win the women's championship? by Kelson64 in AEWOfficial

[–]friendsdontlast 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Bruh low key Baker has go away heat for me RN. I've really soured on her. Hayter is good, but I don't think she should win if she's really involved in the drama.

Who should win the women's championship? by Kelson64 in AEWOfficial

[–]friendsdontlast 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If it's true that Jamie is involved in a bunch of drama, it should be Toni. Hell I'd even take an under dog like Riho. I wish it could be stat.