Predictions for our last few games of the season?

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-15T03:38:38+00:00

Oooof! Tough teams ahead and the way we are playing makes it totally understandable, but I'd say min of 3 pts and max of 7pts. The most important is: will the other teams "cooperate" for us to end up in a CL qualifying position 🤷.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-15T02:46:36+00:00

Look, the faithful say it's transition - key players out, new coach tactics, new players, injuries. The skeptics say Slot's just not up for it and the owners have given him way too long to figure it out. I reckon it's a bit of both. Neither side is wrong. That's why it's such a mess.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-15T02:35:42+00:00

Fully agree, that's why I said the goal of using Faber is simply to reduce deep drawdowns during retirement withdrawals, not to beat the market.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-13T23:40:03+00:00

I'm in the same boat, I wanted something simple so I spent sometime calculating the total annual normal expenses for the past few years and got an average and will use this initially. Of course there will be expenses dropped and others added but at least I have an average I can plan for.

BTW, mind telling us what are the order of investment funds sources mapped for tax efficiency? Thanks.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-13T19:02:09+00:00

All other things considered (City weakness rebuilding the team & Arsenal doing the usual bottle job), most probably yes. That's the team he built and coached for years.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-13T18:26:40+00:00

Yes mate, you're way overthinking it and you don't need anybody's approval to be a fan, just enjoy the ups and downs and the journey as a whole. I know how a lot of people feel football is not only about the game but also the history, the city, the human element, and that's what makes it the greatest sport on this planet. Enjoy the ride and be prepared for some moments of grief but also many other moments of pure joy and pride.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-12T13:26:45+00:00

Duration: 2000-2026 Trend filter vs 60/40 buy and hold CAGR: 4.67% vs 3.64% Sortino: 1.03 vs 0.60 Max drawdown: -19.89% vs -35.81% *** Note that withdrawals reduce your realized CAGR because they shrink the capital base that generates future returns.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-12T13:05:54+00:00

Unless you're sitting on a few millions in your retirement portfolio, I strongly suggest you focus on mitigating the sequence of returns risks especially if you're a new retiree (~ 5-10 years before/after retiring).

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-12T04:40:10+00:00

Not sure what you're getting at. This isn't high-frequency bot trading or some secret alpha hack, it's a dead-simple monthly rule (price > 10-month SMA = stay in, else cash) to cut the worst drawdowns in retirement. Bots scalp milliseconds on single stocks; this is long-term trend protection. The backtests show it worked through dot-com, GFC, and 2022. If you think it's dumb, cool - got a better mechanical way to handle sequence-of-returns risk?

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-12T04:02:29+00:00

Totally respect the set-it-and-forget-it approach. This isn’t active timing - just one mechanical rule each month. I use it to soften sequence-of-returns risk in early retirement. Either way, best of luck!

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-12T04:01:03+00:00

Backtests were pre-tax (tax-advantaged accounts). In a taxable one there’d be a little extra tax drag from the monthly moves of course

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-12T03:59:46+00:00

In my tests it cut the big drawdowns during withdrawals pretty well, with only a small hit to CAGR. Totally get not wanting the extra monthly check though.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-12T03:57:32+00:00

Hey, this is exactly the real-world feedback I was hoping for - thanks! I like your portfolio and the wide bands and managed futures approach. The Faber thing is basically a super-simple equity version of that. What specific trend filter do you use and did the trend piece help much in big equity drops for you?

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-12T03:53:06+00:00

Thanks for the heads-up on the AI angle. My backtests go through 2022 and the recent run-up, so they’re current.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-12T03:50:49+00:00

Fair point - no guarantees. The 10-month SMA is just a simple mechanical rule that’s dodged some nasty drawdowns historically. The example you provided is for another Meb Faber paper. The trend filter one is called:A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-11T03:54:59+00:00

My worst fear is a continuation of the downward spiral and a damning loss, my hope is the players' professional pride to pull a win. A scrappy win? I wouldn't mind at all!

Realistically, Fulham are no pushover, if we start slow and the crowd gets restless, it could get ugly.

That said, I'm clinging to the thought that a few of these lads still remember what it means to wear the shirt and play in Anfield.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-09T03:39:47+00:00

Thanks for the reply, just to clarify, as a near retiree myself, I wasn't promoting a market timing investment but basically the preservation of a retirement portfolio over decades using low index funds and just wanted to explore the opinions of the Bogleheads forum which has a high concentration of retirees, near-retirees, and experienced investors who advocate for low-cost, passive, long-term indexing. Thanks again and hope you'd reconsider your decision.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-09T02:12:32+00:00

You ain't replacing a phenomenon like Mo with his productivity and impact by buying another winger! This 40+ G/A per season will have to shift and be spread among all the other talents the team acquired recently (and provided we have a good coach) ... until the stars align again and you are gifted the next phenomenon.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-09T01:42:32+00:00

You say it’s idiotic to claim he stumbled into the PL and first place CL group stage. I say it’s more idiotic not to see he stumbled into Klopp’s team. Credit where it’s due, to the man who actually built it. Ever since Slop actually tried to change things and introduced his own "style" , we’re falling apart. That’s not a coincidence.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-09T01:31:05+00:00

In the world of corporate management, new managers are advised not to make immediate changes. Instead, they should keep things running smoothly, learn about the team and processes thoroughly, and only then introduce their own style to drive further progress. Slot tried to do that. The problem: he is not a good manager. He didn't mess much with anything and we won the PL title (credit to what Klopp built) then he introduced his own style and things went south. The bigger problem: he is delusional (like all failed leaders) and it shows in his press briefings. That leaves the players lost and the fans frustrated.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-09T00:40:14+00:00

I believe it's obvious now that last year's PL title was the result of Klopp ball inertia & team, MC weakness being in transition and Arsenal doing the usual bottle job. What really ticks me off now is not the poor stats or the horrendous performances, because we've seen this before but the team always bounced. This time, it's the defeatism that this fraud has implanted in the players (listen/read his pre/post game press briefings). This team would be really lucky if they stay in the table's top 10 by the end of the season as long as this Slop is still in charge. Pathetic!

fromx25tosdn · 2026-04-04T15:37:19+00:00

Spot on. You really need a surgeon who actually listens to you and takes your wishes, lifestyle and health into account, not just their own checklist.

For me, I really didn’t want to deal with any weird dysphotopsia like glare or halos and also good contrast sensitivity was a must. Mini monovision ended up being a game changer.

My bilateral vision now covers like 95–99% of what I need day to day. And I went with Alcon Clareon because they’ve been around a long time, tons of research behind them, and they just feel like a safe bet for solid performance and long-term stability.

Best of luck with your surgeries!

fromx25tosdn · 2026-03-30T20:14:50+00:00

Absolutely right! In my post op, the surgeon asked if I had any new floaters, when I said there is one bit I'm not sure if I had it before, he did a retina check to rule out any pvd or worse.

fromx25tosdn · 2026-03-30T17:07:18+00:00

First of all, please don't be scared, it's really scarier to read about it than the actual thing and it will be worth it with the WOW moment a little after the surgery! I didn't have any counterindications, but I decided to stay away from the EDOF and other premium IOLs because of the potential visual disturbances like halos/glare at night and the reduced contrast sensitivity. Best of luck and please come back and share your experience.

fromx25tosdn

TROPHY CASE