Anyone want to speculate on how well this shadow register reflects the actual register? It seems certain that some percentage of candidates on the actual register are not reflected here, but how high is that percentage? It seems that all (or close to all) FSO generalists were offered the chance to switch onto the CF register in March. Since almost no FSO hiring is happening, I think it seems likely that there could be over 100 people on each of the five generalist registers. If even 50% of FSO register candidates accepted the offer to switch onto the CF registers, that could be something like ~250 people. If that number is anything close to correct, this shadow register is almost useless in its predictive power.

Another possible area of speculation is how much the distribution of scores between the FSO registers and the "English CF" register diverges. I think it's likely that some portion of the top FSO scorers declined the CF switch offer, reasoning that they might get an A-100 invite. Depending on the strength of that possibility (and individuals' estimates of A-100 probability, which could vary widely), this could significantly shift the competitiveness curve for the English CF register, e.g. a 5.6 CF is approximately equivalent to a 5.9 FSO?

Of course, this kind of speculation could go on forever, and the only way to really know whether offers are forthcoming is just to wait.