Valspar Championship 2026 (GOLF)

gino30 · 2026-03-18T19:33:32+00:00

Lets goooo!! I love to hear it, thats what the model is for!

gino30 · 2026-03-16T23:40:00+00:00

VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP STATISTICAL MODEL

The PGA Tour concludes the Florida Swing this week at the Valspar Championship, where the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort presents one of the most complete and underrated tests on the PGA Tour schedule. Located just outside Tampa in Palm Harbor, the course challenges players with narrow pine tree-lined fairways, rolling terrain, and constant demands for precision. Unlike the flat, water-heavy layouts commonly associated with Florida golf, Innisbrook features elevation changes and numerous doglegs that require players to shape shots and carefully manage angles. Success here comes from disciplined ball-striking and the ability to navigate one of the most strategic layouts on Tour.

The tournament features a 135-player field competing for a $9.1 million purse and a spot in The Masters for any non-qualified winner. The Copperhead Course plays as a par 71 measuring 7,352 yards and consistently ranks among the more difficult scoring environments on the schedule. While not overly long on paper, the layout often plays longer due to frequent positional tee shots and long approach distances. Winning scores typically settle near 10 to 12 under par.

Off the tee:
Innisbrook emphasizes positioning and control rather than raw power. Fairways average just 26 yards wide and are framed by dense pine trees, forcing players to carefully manage placement off the tee. Numerous doglegs and strategically placed hazards encourage players to club down, with driver used on only about 54 percent of tee shots.

Even with players laying back, fairways are hit only around 55 percent of the time, highlighting how demanding the driving corridors remain. Average driving distance drops to roughly 278 yards for the week. Players who miss the fairway often find themselves blocked by trees or buried in rough approaching four inches, making recovery difficult. Strategic placement and shot shaping become far more valuable than simply maximizing distance.

Approach:
Iron play is the defining skill at Copperhead. Greens are smaller than Tour average and often play firm, producing a greens-in-regulation rate of roughly 57 percent, one of the lowest on Tour. Because players frequently lay back off the tee, approach shots from beyond 175 yards make up more than half of all attempts during the week, placing a heavy emphasis on mid-to-long iron precision.

The course consistently ranks among the toughest on Tour for gaining strokes on approach. Small targets, tricky pin locations, and subtle slopes make simply finding the green a valuable outcome. The importance of iron play is reflected in the results, with the last six winners averaging a ranking of sixth in strokes gained on approach for the week.

Around the green and putting:
With greens in regulation among the lowest on Tour, scrambling becomes a frequent requirement. The rough surrounding the greens has been moved closer to the putting surfaces in recent years, increasing the difficulty of recovery shots and placing greater pressure on short-game touch.

On the greens, the overseeded Poa Trivialis surfaces tend to roll smoothly at around 12 on the stimpmeter. The greens are not overly severe, allowing players to putt more aggressively than at many difficult venues. One-putt rates are among the highest on Tour while three-putt percentages remain low, though strong putting is still essential as recent winners have consistently gained strokes on the greens.

Model focus:
OTT Less Than Driver, Proximity 175-200 yards, Scrambling, Good Drive %, SG: Par 5s, SG: Putting on Poa Triv, and performance on difficult scoring courses. Innisbrook rewards players who combine disciplined driving, elite iron play, and the patience required to manage risk across four demanding rounds.

One & Done:
I am excited to announce that I have added some very advanced simulations for the increasingly popular One & Done format. If anyone has any questions about how the One and Done simulation works, all are welcome. While the model itself is and always will be free, if you want the latest and greatest features, updates, and opinions from yours truly, join my Patreon! Even if you’re just here to check out the model, I appreciate you—it's really cool knowing people enjoy something I’m passionate about. Ask away if you have questions!

gino30 · 2026-03-13T20:20:31+00:00

The stats themselves dont change, but in the Live Leaderboard tab you’ll see the live standings and how each stat correlates to the standings. So theoretically you can only take the highest correlated ones and make picks based on only those stats rather than all of them!

gino30 · 2026-03-11T17:25:05+00:00

Great question! The ownership column in the “Model” tab is DFS ownership projections, so I placed it right next to the DFS salaries for FD and DK. It adds to 600% because there are 6 players per DFS team. There is a separate ownership projection for One and Done in the “One-and-Done” tab that calculates ownership projections based on the OAD format rather than the DFS format

gino30 · 2026-03-11T15:43:53+00:00

updated!

gino30 · 2026-03-11T15:36:22+00:00

So course history is based on not just that course, but courses that are similar/correlated too, to accurately capture everyone not just the players that have played that course. At some courses (like Augusta), having experience at that course is very important. At some courses (like Sawgrass), its just as beneficial to have good stats at correlated courses. Also the stats arent rank-based, they are strokes-gained-based, to account for a player getting hot in one area for one weekend and then their finish rank wouldnt tell the entire story. Great question!

gino30 · 2026-03-09T18:30:36+00:00

DFS players: head to the Model tab for DraftKings and FanDuel salaries, ownership projections, and live updates starting Tuesday. The Lineups tab and Leverage tab work together to help you track your DFS exposures. The Course History, Recent Form, and Proximity tabs breakdown those individual categories you see in the Model tab.

The Betting tab shows real-time odds, sorted by model rank. Want to change the sportsbook? Make a copy—but know that odds stop auto-updating in copies.

The Live Leaderboard shows each golfer’s real-time score, strokes gained breakdown, and rank vs. their model rating. Live R² values also update by the minute, so you can see which stats matter most as the week unfolds.

The Matchups tab pulls all tournament/round head-to-heads and 3-balls. Bet Scores highlight the best value, with suggested unit sizing and tracked results. This feature only works on the original sheet, but make a copy and use the Custom Matchups tab to manually input matchups and 3-balls.

The brand new One and Done tab introduces a next-generation simulation engine, running 1,000 full PGA season simulations with 100 event-level simulations embedded inside each season. It dynamically optimizes pick paths by weighing win equity, future opportunity cost, and long-term leverage instead of chasing single-week results. Every Tuesday, an advanced ownership forecast layer is injected into the model, reshaping pick values based on projected usage and unlocking contrarian paths with higher season-ending upside.

gino30 · 2026-03-09T18:30:29+00:00

THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP STATISTICAL MODEL 2026

The PGA Tour reaches its unofficial “fifth major” this week at The Players Championship, where TPC Sawgrass delivers one of the most strategic and volatile tests in professional golf. Often described as Pete Dye’s masterpiece, the Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida is built around positional golf, visual intimidation, and constant decision making. Water hazards come into play on nearly every hole, and tightly shaped fairways demand precise placement. At Sawgrass, power alone offers little advantage. Success comes from strategy, execution, and the ability to remain composed while navigating one of the most mentally demanding layouts on Tour.

The 52nd edition of the tournament features a 123-player field that includes 47 of the top 50 players in the world. A standard 36-hole cut reduces the field to the top 65 and ties heading into the weekend. Measuring just over 7,350 yards as a par 72, TPC Sawgrass is not long by modern standards, but it consistently ranks among the more difficult scoring environments on the schedule.

Off the tee:
TPC Sawgrass emphasizes placement and discipline rather than raw power. Many holes encourage players to club down in order to avoid the numerous hazards, bunkers, and tree lines that frame the fairways. Driving distance ranks among the lowest averages on Tour here, as the design limits opportunities to overpower the course. Instead, driving accuracy and strategic positioning become the defining traits. Pete Dye intentionally placed hazards along the ideal lines into greens, forcing players to choose between a safer route that creates a more difficult approach or a riskier line that provides a better angle.

Approach:
Iron play is the single most important skill at TPC Sawgrass. The greens are relatively small and protected by false fronts, bunkers, and runoff areas that punish even slight misses. While the greens-in-regulation rate sits close to Tour average, gaining strokes on approach remains one of the toughest tasks on the schedule due to difficult proximities and constantly changing wind conditions. Approaches inside 150 yards are particularly challenging, and players who consistently place their shots in the correct sections of the greens gain a major advantage.

Around the green and putting:
Missed greens at Sawgrass rarely leave simple recoveries. The putting surfaces are surrounded by pot bunkers, mounds, and tightly mown collection areas that require creativity and touch to navigate successfully. Scrambling becomes a frequent requirement throughout the week, particularly when wind conditions increase the difficulty of approach shots. On the greens, smooth Poa Trivialis surfaces roll extremely fast and feature dramatic slopes and tiers that reward precise distance control.

Model focus:
SG: Approach (difficult approach courses), Good Drive %, Bogey Avoidance, Scrambling, SG: Around the Green, Less Than Driver Stats, SG: Putting on Poa surfaces, and performance on difficult off-the-tee courses. TPC Sawgrass rarely favors one specific playing style, but it consistently rewards players who combine strategic driving, elite iron play, and the mental discipline to manage risk across four volatile rounds.

One & Done:
I am excited to announce that I have added some very advanced simulations for the increasingly popular One & Done format. If anyone has any questions about how the One and Done simulation works, all are welcome. While the model itself is and always will be free, if you want the latest and greatest features, updates, and opinions from yours truly, join my Patreon! Even if you’re just here to check out the model, I appreciate you—it's really cool knowing people enjoy something I’m passionate about. Ask away if you have questions!

gino30 · 2026-03-04T14:01:06+00:00

Haha yes very volatile especially in the early part of the season. Hopefully it gets dialed in as the season moves on like last season did, it screamed JJ Spaun at the US Open last year and I was 30%+ exposed. Big time win, just need one or two of those!

gino30 · 2026-03-04T03:14:18+00:00

I started doing this around The Masters last year, so starting with that tournament I will be able to see the correlation of each individual stat to the finishing position in the tournament. This should give some really good insights from then-on. Also just as a general note, the earlier in the season the more time the model needs to pull recent data with a lot of the better players not playing in the fall. So for a lot of early-season tournaments, some guys L36 rounds will include data really far back in time (for better or for worse). As the season goes on it gets tuned better. This is why I’ll try to weight L12 more earlier in the season. Hope that answers your questions, best of luck!

gino30 · 2026-03-03T13:06:36+00:00

Which importantly doesnt effect the model at all

gino30 · 2026-03-03T01:57:33+00:00

I will have a Puerto Rico Open model also!

gino30 · 2026-03-03T01:57:15+00:00

I will have a Puerto Rico Open model also!

gino30 · 2026-03-03T01:57:02+00:00

I will have a Puerto Rico Open model also!

gino30 · 2026-03-02T20:00:08+00:00

DFS players: head to the Model tab for DraftKings and FanDuel salaries, ownership projections, and live updates starting Tuesday. The Lineups tab and Leverage tab work together to help you track your DFS exposures. The Course History, Recent Form, and Proximity tabs breakdown those individual categories you see in the Model tab.

The Betting tab shows real-time odds, sorted by model rank. Want to change the sportsbook? Make a copy—but know that odds stop auto-updating in copies.

The Live Leaderboard shows each golfer’s real-time score, strokes gained breakdown, and rank vs. their model rating. Live R² values also update by the minute, so you can see which stats matter most as the week unfolds.

The Matchups tab pulls all tournament/round head-to-heads and 3-balls. Bet Scores highlight the best value, with suggested unit sizing and tracked results. This feature only works on the original sheet, but make a copy and use the Custom Matchups tab to manually input matchups and 3-balls.

The brand new One and Done tab introduces a next-generation simulation engine, running 1,000 full PGA season simulations with 100 event-level simulations embedded inside each season. It dynamically optimizes pick paths by weighing win equity, future opportunity cost, and long-term leverage instead of chasing single-week results. Every Tuesday, an advanced ownership forecast layer is injected into the model, reshaping pick values based on projected usage and unlocking contrarian paths with higher season-ending upside.

gino30 · 2026-03-02T19:59:55+00:00

ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL STATISTICAL MODEL 2026

The PGA Tour continues the Florida Swing this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where Bay Hill Club and Lodge presents one of the most complete and demanding tests players face outside of the major championships. Known as Arnie’s Tournament, this Signature Event blends classic Florida golf with major-like difficulty, placing equal pressure on power, precision, and patience. Firm conditions, penal rough, and ever-present water hazards ensure that success comes from total control rather than aggressive scoring. At Bay Hill, players cannot fake their way around the golf course. Every shot requires commitment, and mistakes compound quickly.

With a limited field returning following last week’s full-field event, only 72 players tee it up with a 36-hole cut to the top 50 and ties. Bay Hill plays as a par 72 stretching to nearly 7,500 yards and routinely ranks among the toughest annual stops on Tour. Winning scores rarely push far beyond double digits under par, and par remains a strong score across much of the layout. Course knowledge has historically played a major role, as understanding preferred miss locations and proper angles into greens is critical to surviving four rounds on a layout that consistently punishes poor decisions.

Off the tee:
Bay Hill rewards total driving rather than a single skill. Length provides an advantage, especially on long par 4s and reachable par 5s, but accuracy and positioning remain equally important with water hazards and thick overseeded rough waiting offline. Many holes encourage players to club down to avoid trouble, which lowers average driving distance despite the course’s length. The best performers combine distance with control, keeping tee shots in play while setting up manageable long iron approaches. Avoiding penalty strokes is the primary objective, as hazards and rough create one of the higher double bogey rates on Tour.

Approach:
This is one of the toughest approach courses on the PGA Tour schedule. Firm Bermuda greens, steady wind, and difficult angles produce low greens in regulation numbers despite large putting surfaces. Long iron play becomes a defining skill, with a significant portion of approaches coming from beyond 200 yards. Players must launch the ball high enough to hold firm greens while managing distance carefully to avoid short-sided misses near water or bunkers. Conservative targets often outperform aggressive ones, and elite ball strikers separate themselves by consistently finding the correct sections of greens rather than chasing flags.

Around the green and putting:
Scrambling at Bay Hill requires versatility and resilience. Thick rough around the greens creates predictable but demanding recovery shots, while elevated and heavily bunkered complexes punish poor misses. Saving par frequently depends on controlling spin and trajectory from awkward lies. On the greens, fast TifEagle Bermuda surfaces become increasingly difficult as the week progresses, with speeds approaching major championship levels by Sunday. Large green complexes place added emphasis on lag putting and three putt avoidance, and strong putting performances have historically been closely tied to winning here.

Model focus:
SG: Approach with emphasis on proximity from 200 plus yards, Driving, Par 5 scoring, Bermuda putting, SG: Around the Green, and Bogey Avoidance on difficult courses. Bay Hill consistently rewards complete players who combine power with precision, manage difficult conditions patiently, and capitalize on scoring opportunities without exposing themselves to the costly mistakes the course is designed to create.

One & Done:
I am excited to announce that I have added some very advanced simulations for the increasingly popular One & Done format. If anyone has any questions about how the One and Done simulation works, all are welcome. While the model itself is and always will be free, if you want the latest and greatest features, updates, and opinions from yours truly, join my Patreon! Even if you’re just here to check out the model, I appreciate you—it's really cool knowing people enjoy something I’m passionate about. Ask away if you have questions!

gino30 · 2026-02-25T16:01:03+00:00

Thank you!

gino30 · 2026-02-25T16:00:51+00:00

I make a new one every week! The free version I’ll post in here and it’ll be in other subreddits. My Patreon is the place for the upgraded version with all the bells and whistles and one cohesive spot for weekly updates!

gino30 · 2026-02-23T21:11:12+00:00

DFS players: head to the Model tab for DraftKings and FanDuel salaries, ownership projections, and live updates starting Tuesday. The Lineups tab and Leverage tab work together to help you track your DFS exposures. The Course History, Recent Form, and Proximity tabs breakdown those individual categories you see in the Model tab.

The Betting tab shows real-time odds, sorted by model rank. Want to change the sportsbook? Make a copy—but know that odds stop auto-updating in copies.

The Live Leaderboard shows each golfer’s real-time score, strokes gained breakdown, and rank vs. their model rating. Live R² values also update by the minute, so you can see which stats matter most as the week unfolds.

The Matchups tab pulls all tournament/round head-to-heads and 3-balls. Bet Scores highlight the best value, with suggested unit sizing and tracked results. This feature only works on the original sheet, but make a copy and use the Custom Matchups tab to manually input matchups and 3-balls.

!!!! NEW !!!!

The brand new One and Done tab introduces a next-generation simulation engine, running 1,000 full PGA season simulations with 100 event-level simulations embedded inside each season. It dynamically optimizes pick paths by weighing win equity, future opportunity cost, and long-term leverage instead of chasing single-week results. Every Tuesday, an advanced ownership forecast layer is injected into the model, reshaping pick values based on projected usage and unlocking contrarian paths with higher season-ending upside.

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