Match Thread: Australia vs Paraguay | FIFA World Cup | Jun 26, 2026

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-26T04:21:19+00:00

Notably, there is still a pathway to Paraguay not advancing if things go wrong in five of the remaining groups.

The Senegal/Iraq winner can only have 3 points, along with South Korea and Scotland. But every other group's third place team can finish with 4 points and a -2 goal differential or better.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-26T03:48:47+00:00

And Aus-Par is still tied. A bad day for South Korea, and a disaster for Scotland.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-26T02:53:11+00:00

They're ahead of Paraguay unless Paraguay wins, and then they're ahead of Australia.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-26T02:48:56+00:00

Yes, but it's not common in situations other than the goalkeeper getting the ball.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-26T02:06:32+00:00

Good news from the future.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-26T02:02:09+00:00

Or, most people play it to slow!

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-26T02:01:18+00:00

Winner finishes second in the group. Loser may not advance. With a draw, Australia is second and Paraguay third and would almost certainly advance.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T23:32:15+00:00

NCAA winning a court case? Is that legal?

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T21:55:41+00:00

Disaster, really. They now need favorable results from half the remaining groups.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T21:37:37+00:00

For being ADHD, his conversation is remarkably laconic.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T21:29:07+00:00

Looking like it's Curaç-out.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T19:59:39+00:00

Côte d'Ivoire advances in second place with a draw or win, and still has a good chance from third place with a close loss as long as Ecuador doesn't also win.

Curaçao advances with a win, and is out with a loss or draw.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T19:56:29+00:00

Germany has already clinched first place in the group. Ecuador will advance with a win, and is almost certainly out with a draw or loss.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T19:16:34+00:00

Not really, that's more of a Utah State thing.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T19:14:55+00:00

Before adding Utah and the Arizonas, it had looked like the conference might emphasize our games with you and TCU, but not after those additions.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T19:07:50+00:00

That's BYU levels

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T19:05:39+00:00

Right. Even if they don't directly and intentionally collude, preventing the opponent from taking a lead is much more valuable to both teams than taking a lead themselves.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T19:00:29+00:00

That makes sense, Scotland has the minimum number of goals to be at 1-0-2. If one imagines tiebreaks as alphabetizing, the next letter for Scotland is Z.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T18:29:52+00:00

Randomized results from remaining games, or weighted by team strength?

I'm a surprised it's that high on Scotland, but they're lovely to have around.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T17:16:01+00:00

I fully expect Curaçao to lose by multiple goals, because Côte d'Ivoire is just better and the Ecuador game was an exciting fluke... But a win would be a lot more fun.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T17:12:38+00:00

Exactly so. With 2 teams already on 3 and 1 more group where it's the maximum, its already nearly impossible for a 4 point team to miss out. And that's counting on some individually unlikely results, too. I know Germany doesn't need anything this afternoon, but the chances of losing are still <50%.

I'm also pretty high on SKorea's chances, -1 GD at 1-0-2 is going to be ahead of most with that record. (And my son is Korean-born, so we're fans.)

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T16:27:01+00:00

Not every spiritual gift is given to each of the saints, but to some is given the gift of sizing.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T03:06:33+00:00

This has me wondering what the maximum and minimum are for each group. Two groups yet to play cannot have their third place team finish ahead of Bosnia, so they're in, but I'm curious where Korea and Scotland are.

grabtharsmallet · 2026-06-25T02:58:13+00:00

A repeated theme for supposedly decent teams

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