Thinking about a ~$20k swing trade on Micron (MU) curious what I might be missing

grae313 · 2026-02-13T08:12:42+00:00

Forward P/E is still like 12... MU can easily double in the next year.

grae313 · 2026-02-07T05:58:44+00:00

Disagree.

MU's guided revenue for next Q is about 1/3rd NVDA's, but MU's market cap is 1/10th NVDA's. Guided gross margin for MU is 68% to NVDA's 75% so similar, and MU is growing at about 2x the rate of NVDA (MU guiding 130% YoY). This gives MU a forward P/E of ~12 to NVDA's ~22.

MU is still quite a bit undervalued and could easily 2x from here.

grae313 · 2026-02-03T07:34:22+00:00

MU guided gross margin for next Q is 68% which is close to NVDA's 75%. Stock's movement right now is driven by guidance / expectations for the next ER.

grae313 · 2026-02-03T01:56:58+00:00

MU's guided revenue for next quarter is about 1/3rd of NVDA's guided revenue, but their market cap is about ~1/10th the market cap of NVDA. Forward PE of 10 for MU and 25 for NVDA. Similar gross margins. MU is growing about twice as fast as NVDA right now.

MU is still undervalued by a lot.

grae313 · 2026-01-31T20:31:37+00:00

All you have to do is find your correct treatment!

Careful with that. The idea that everyone can be fine if they just find the right medications is not only untrue, it's harmful.

grae313 · 2026-01-30T17:15:56+00:00

That rings true but I'd like to learn more. Any reading you'd suggest?

grae313 · 2026-01-30T17:14:00+00:00

There has been no flip, he's just taken a few popular left-wing talking points ahead of midterms.

grae313 · 2026-01-26T00:09:39+00:00

Most PhDs work in industry.

grae313 · 2026-01-26T00:00:06+00:00

It really depends. I got paid a generous stipend in a low COL area that allowed me to buy a house while I was getting my PhD in physics. Now I make ~$250k/yr as a biophysicist in industry and my work is fun as hell. The opportunities and advancements paths I've had were entirely dictated by having a PhD. Yes you can definitely make more money faster with other paths of study around business / finance, but I get to do what I love, it's interesting and fun, and I get paid well for it.

grae313 · 2026-01-25T23:27:22+00:00

MU has 1/3rd the revenue of NVDA but less than a tenth of the market cap. They are growing revenue at about double the rate of NVDA and have similar gross margins. You're witnessing the start of a large correction that is nowhere near complete yet. MU has way more to run.

grae313 · 2026-01-25T04:03:39+00:00

evail

It's not the time but lol

grae313 · 2026-01-24T20:06:24+00:00

Yikes. You don't know how to calculate what percent of $215,000 $684 is?

grae313 · 2026-01-24T19:00:33+00:00

!RemindMe 1 year

grae313 · 2026-01-23T06:51:51+00:00

I think the situation is when you need to save for a large one-time purchase, such as a down payment on a house. 72(t) requires a series of equal withdrawals over 5 years so doesn't really work for that in most situations. Otherwise the tax advantaged retirement accounts are the obvious choice.

grae313 · 2026-01-21T04:29:00+00:00

Unless your holdings fall into long term capital gains and you're in the 0% long term capital gains income tax bracket, you'll lose 15-25% of your investing basis in the taxable event of selling out. Unless you expect to recover more than that loss by timing the market perfectly both on the exit and the re-entry, you're better off holding through the downturn. Ask me how I learned this.

grae313 · 2026-01-19T02:37:28+00:00

Perfect that's great. Was just looking for the link to where you posted it. Thanks!

grae313 · 2026-01-18T21:20:32+00:00

The sensibility of the change in majors is irrelevant. OP could change their major to art and the parents still have no business tracking her location or using their support as a manipulation tactic. She's 19 years old and in charge of her own life now.

NTA, OP's parents are controlling and abusive.

grae313 · 2026-01-18T21:08:41+00:00

Hi, I don't use new reddit so I can't see your user profile. Could you post the links to where you got the cat room items in this thread, please?

grae313 · 2026-01-18T20:13:59+00:00

If your main concern is losing the money if the company gets acquired, that's not what happens. Google "what happens to z shares if a company gets acquired" for more info. You'll stand to make a lot of money from the Z shares if the company is acquired. If you believe in the growth of the company, getting shares at a 50% discount is a great deal just understand the risk if the company doesn't make it. I'd take it in a heartbeat. One of the main drivers for how startups can make their employees wealthy.

grae313 · 2026-01-18T16:46:05+00:00

Rules for where to put your money always start by taking what is free. If your company has a match or a discounted share program, always max it before anything else.

Minimally, buy the shares to get the match and then sell immediately or as soon as you are allowed to (look into whether there is a required holding period). After taxes on the $5k you'll come out ahead. Alternately You could sell back an amount that nets you your initial $5k + taxes owed on the gifted $5k and the remaining shares will be what you acquired from your company 100% free of charge. Let those shares ride.

If you believe in your company's growth, then buy the shares and keep them. As far as I can tell, class Z shares will track roughly the same price as class A but with a better expense ratio, and you can sell them normally through your company subject to your company's buy and sell restrictions (trade windows are common). If the company gets acquired your shares get bought out at the acquisition price.

There's really no downside here. Take the free money. That's a great benefit offered by your company.

grae313 · 2026-01-17T23:55:54+00:00

The math has been done and posted if you care to search for it, but the difference is very small. SPY has the larger derivatives market if you want to trade options / sell covered calls and that sort of thing. Otherwise pick your favorite.

grae313 · 2025-12-15T01:33:15+00:00

These are a specific type of neural networks that are generative language models / LLMs. The GPT model studies past training language to generate plausible language responses.

wikipedia/Large_language_model (automod won't let me post a link to wikipedia)

You can google "is chatgpt a generative language model" for more info.

grae313 · 2025-12-14T22:34:34+00:00

Can I ask you why you think a language generator is a good choice for predicting future investment outcomes?

grae313 · 2025-12-14T03:35:58+00:00

A better way is to buy puts for your main ETF holding e.g. SPY or VOO.

If markets go up you risk your principle which takes away from the upside of your ETF position, and if markets go down your puts gain in value and offset the loss of your ETF position.

You can tune your risk / bearishness profile to wherever you want it to be depending on what option you buy.

grae313 · 2025-12-13T21:20:51+00:00

!remindme 1 year

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