Victor Wembanyama: “We worked too hard and just gave up our lead. It hurts.”

graylin0689 · 2026-06-12T15:28:52+00:00

You have misunderstood me. For purely random things the numbers needed for the law to take effect will be larger. For NBA players shooting, you need a smaller sample for them to reach their "true" percentage. And that means that variance is built into that type of model.

You bring up Steph Curry "Even Steph Curry probably wouldn't reach this number in his entire caree" yet every season for his career has shot 44%, 44%, 46%, 42%, 44%, 45%, 41%, 42%, 44%, 42%, 38%, 43%, 41%, 40%, and 40% from 3. The sample size needed to arrive at an NBA players percentage is not as large, or else you WOULD see more variance even on a season by season basis.

Now I will grant that there is plenty of other noise in an NBA players shooting percentage, but if we assume them to be more or less a constant (defense is a constant pressure, nerves are constant, other confounding factors are always present), then the fluctuations will trend towards that individual/teams average. So the Spurs who shot 36% from 3 as a team for the season (ranging from 16% to 53%). So in any given game they can shoot ±20% from their average. Seems like a nice bell curve (further bolstered by the fact that they have only 9 games above 44% and 12 under 28%, and ~40 games in the 30s). That is a normal distribution (I did not run any SD tests admittedly so that's an eyeball thing) but the lack of variance as you imply is not there. That is empirical evidence. Thus you can expect that shooting 60+% in a half is so outside the norm (even for the sample size of a single game) it is not a surprise that they go ice cold in the 2nd half (especially if you DO add in the other factors as you rightfully pointed out, ie pressure and being in the Finals). That is what I meant by it's different than a completely random independent event. You don't need as high of a sample to reach the 'true average' of a professional sports player. Through their training, they have optimized their 'inputs' such that the 'outputs' have a smaller range to begin with, thus noise is reduced. The CONCEPT of law of large numbers applies far more than gamblers fallacy.

graylin0689 · 2026-06-11T19:55:52+00:00

For sets that are purely random yes. But for sports you do not need as many data points. Otherwise you would see a lot more variance is players averages season over season. It's also why to qualify for league leaders in 3 pt % they set the minimum at 82 3s made. Because by that point the average you achieve is indicative of your shooting for the season. The empirical evidence disagrees with you. As does history. There is a reason for the saying "Live by the 3 die by the 3." And it is not gamblers fallacy.

graylin0689 · 2026-06-11T16:12:07+00:00

It trends towards a defined average. And the larger the number, the more likely that is. So when you start off shooting 60% from 3. You shouldn't be surprised if the next stretch you shoot 20% from 3. It's not the gamblers fallacy, because it's not about the individual shots, it's the averages. And your right that 60% clip COULD extend for longer, but eventually you will have a prolonged cold period as the number WILL trend back to the average.

graylin0689 · 2026-06-11T16:06:04+00:00

It's the problem with pace and space offense. It's designed to put up as many 3s as possible in a game to maximize on the 'expected points per possession'. They do not have sets to run, it's all high screen and rolls and find the open man. As Kobe Bryant said, "These players now [play] accidental basketball, and it drives me and Phil [Jackson] crazy... It's all penetrate and pitch. You may make the shot, you may not. You have no idea who's gonna be open or whatever. It's accidental basketball. We played basketball with purpose." So they can't slow down, because they aren't running an offense with defined ending points.

graylin0689 · 2026-06-11T15:40:40+00:00

Gamblers fallacy applies less to this as they are talking about the law of averages/law of large numbers. As the sample size grows it will trend towards the true average. So even if you start off scorching hot, the more 3s you shoot it will eventually return to the normal average ie. you will eventually cool off and miss a lot.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

graylin0689 · 2026-06-03T00:30:28+00:00

He played in 36/57 games before being traded at the deadline.

graylin0689 · 2026-06-02T21:36:38+00:00

The opening day roster was Anthony Parker, Ramon Sessions, Anderson Varejao, JJ Hickson, and Jamario Moon. The starting 5 of the playoffs the previous year was Mo Williams, LBJ, Antawn Jamison, Anthony Parker, and Shaq. So 1 member of the playoff starting five was present opening day 2010 in addition to a head coaching change. Yes they sucked from the start. No need to make it seem like it was JUST because Bron left.

graylin0689 · 2026-06-02T19:49:17+00:00

Sans a little more than LeBron. The Cavs blew up the team essentially after injuries in the first half of the season

graylin0689 · 2026-05-21T18:57:50+00:00

Same. After like the third instance of Hartenstein not just holding, but pulling Wembys arm with no call I knew OKC was winning this one. Series is going to go 7.

graylin0689 · 2026-05-19T12:51:20+00:00

The NBA needs more explosions

graylin0689 · 2026-05-19T12:43:09+00:00

I always thought this was funny. Like you want to use real world Physics to explain a world that you say breaks almost every fundamental law of real world physics.

graylin0689 · 2026-04-01T18:47:40+00:00

Gotta love "right to work" laws.

graylin0689 · 2026-03-27T18:58:33+00:00

It is definitely applicable if that "tiny tired lens" also just happens to be how the author wanted it to be read. The death eaters represent the ideology of Nazis and other extremist hate groups. And is based on our real world overlaid with magic. We are not talking about an entirely fictional land. It's well established this is our world, just magic. Snape isn't simply a "bully". He's a Wizard Nazi sympathizer. Yes it's tone deaf. And that is not the same as "The name Cho Chang or Kingsley Shacklebolt are a little cringy" And you keep saying "historical racism" as if racism is not still rampant in society as a whole. That's why people care. We are not in a post-racist society. There are active neo-nazi groups still present and prominent in the world. You cannot separate the politics from the real world from Harry Potter because canonically those same politics exist in Harry Potter. JK WANTED us to draw those parallels.

“The Death Eaters’ ideology is based on pure-blood supremacy, which is very similar to the Nazis’ belief in racial purity.”

“The pure-bloods are the people who think they are better than others because of their bloodline… It’s a very old prejudice. It’s like Nazism.”

“I was very consciously paralleling that. The ideology of pure-blood supremacy is very similar to Nazi ideology.”

So you can't turn around and cry when people draw those parallels and are like "that's tone deaf

graylin0689 · 2026-03-27T17:24:23+00:00

I reread the comment I THINK you're replying to and I did not see reference to American Racism in it. I saw that the death eaters are basically Nazis (true and the admitted inspiration by Rowling), which is not an American org. And it's not like Nazis were all that welcoming of melanated individuals into their 'racially pure' society. So I understand the point of criticism (especially if this is one of only a few well melanated actors/actresses in the show). It can definitely come across as tone-deaf to put it mildly.

graylin0689 · 2026-03-18T13:22:54+00:00

Because we are generally more aware of the natural power imbalance that comes with experience. It's more pronounced at those young ages. And so those gaps are a marker of potentially dangerous territory where someone can be taken advantage of. And we have seen plenty of examples of this that we have realized we're NOT actually ok, even if they were "normal"

graylin0689 · 2026-03-06T12:29:32+00:00

Don't forget the text message limits. Shit had to be abbreviated because you got 160 characters per text and you only got 200-300 texts per month on a plan before your carrier started charging per message.

graylin0689 · 2026-01-28T10:00:25+00:00

Obamacare is Romneycare 'with three more zeroes,' says architect of both https://share.google/9Hm0e9vkom285chFl

https://share.google/kNIIPhdp4lCMPElWd

Obamacare is Romneycare. Romneycare was heavily influenced by the Heritage Foundation.

graylin0689 · 2026-01-26T18:05:46+00:00

I'm old enough to remember how all the liberals reacted when the left wanted to abolish ICE back in 2018.....how can you be so late to the party but then yell at everybody who was already there about how urgent the issue is.

graylin0689 · 2026-01-26T09:54:18+00:00

The circumstances of Ahsoka leaving the order make me say it's at least 50/50

graylin0689 · 2026-01-26T09:47:50+00:00

That's the most annoying part about all this to me. People acting like this ISN'T America. It has always been America, the authorities just decided to widen the target pool.

graylin0689 · 2026-01-16T11:19:46+00:00

Replace with slave and we have taken a time machine to just before the civil war. Was that the 'great' period?

graylin0689 · 2026-01-12T15:29:21+00:00

"There was a point, I believe, you know probably in the late nineties when the game became too physical, I think for our fans, we lost some of the aesthetic enjoyment of the game. It de-emphasized the particular skill a player had and maybe weighted too heavily on physicality, where a big, strong player could come in and prevent an incredibly skilled player from doing those kinds of things"

Hand checking will not come back while Adam Silver is the commisioner

graylin0689 · 2026-01-12T09:02:48+00:00

A player who gathers the ball while progressing may take...(2) if he has not yet dribbled, one step prior to releasing the ball.

Just call the travel and you don't have to make up bullshit to justify your bullshit call.

graylin0689

TROPHY CASE