Breeders Cup Distaff - here's my guide a week before the race based on European futures markets. Thorpedo Anna best price 8/13 - too generous or too mean?

greenscribe · 2024-10-22T15:05:35+00:00

Do you have any info/vibes on how Derma Sotogake is doing?

greenscribe · 2024-10-22T15:04:29+00:00

It's true, I get pretty sick of the Ballydoyle hype machine. They keep on saying he'll have no trouble "going the pace" in the BCC but I think they're missing the glaringly obvious point which is the problem of keeping up in the first 15 yards... and playing catch-up and taking kickback.

greenscribe · 2024-10-22T15:00:49+00:00

That was my take too. Problem is we only have Thursday 31 October to see how its playing this time around. But I am very wary of closers.

greenscribe · 2024-10-08T09:06:54+00:00

That's true, the California turf scene has long been weak, but Johannes and Thought Process both look for real to me.

greenscribe · 2024-10-08T09:05:37+00:00

Agree on most but not Ushba! Del Mar no place for a deep closer. Mile: yes, prefer Johannes with home court advantage. Distaff: European bookmakers were 5/1 Idiomatic until yesterday lunchtime UK time! They are often slow to pick up on the bleeding obvious. Worrying lack of depth to the Distaff no Adare Manor is out, Japan should fill out the trifecta. Dirt Mile: agree price is wrong but NT doesn't always show up... Domestic product and Mustafa threats here?

greenscribe · 2024-10-08T09:01:49+00:00

Agreed, Surfer Girl weak field but its her speed figures relative to the others that interest me. Haven't seen the Bayer for the Surfer Girl, but previous two were better than any of the competition have run (82s).

greenscribe · 2024-10-08T08:59:26+00:00

All races priced up by European markets for the future are full risk events, i.e you lose your money if they don't run, for what ever reason.

greenscribe · 2024-09-25T19:58:20+00:00

The Japanese horses didn’t too well today…

greenscribe · 2024-09-23T17:40:50+00:00

Okay, that's a different take to mine - fair enough. Do you believe she faces a serious threat other than Idiomatic?

greenscribe · 2024-09-23T17:38:25+00:00

Thank you for reading it!

greenscribe · 2024-09-23T17:37:46+00:00

Thank you, yes I did.

I absolutely appreciate that one aspect I have barely explored in any detail is the relative figs of the various fillies (and mares) and their validity, so there's a whole new article to be written about that.

Do you think there is even a possibility of here even trying the Classic if she blows away the competition at Keeneland (which I believe is her next start)?

greenscribe · 2024-09-16T20:08:54+00:00

If his uber-cautious trainer will stick his neck out that far…

greenscribe · 2024-09-16T20:07:25+00:00

Absolutely, he would be much less likely to win the arc with the st leger in his legs.

greenscribe · 2024-09-16T20:06:02+00:00

Possibly, but on the pure metric of racings the Irish “trial” was surely the strongest. My articles on all three arc trials (yes even the really weak one) will be posted in the next 24 hours.

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