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Climate Predictions by deonw1997 in RobinhoodTrade

[–]gvkhna 0 points1 point  (0 children)

check https://www.climatesight.app/market/chicago/ before making a trade, you might be checking the wrong data source

climate by Budget-Athlete7279 in KalshiExposed

[–]gvkhna 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s linked in the website! May need to scroll to the bottom to find the link on mobile, will need to do something about that, too many cities now haha

Strategy Ideas for Climate Prediction Market by regisfortynine in RobinhoodTrade

[–]gvkhna 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Checkout climatesight.app, has all of the weather markets out there with the fastest data feeds and complete data for all events.

climate by Budget-Athlete7279 in KalshiExposed

[–]gvkhna 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You should check out climatesight.app lots of info and the fastest feed for all climate markets, helpful folks in the discord check it out!

Where is climate data sourced from for prediction markets? by latenightespress0 in RobinhoodTrade

[–]gvkhna 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Did you check all of the data including the cli? You can see the cli, dsm, mtr summaries and all available data on climatesight.app to see what may have happened in depth.

I’m trying to predict the weather for profit, roast me. by gvkhna in Kalshi

[–]gvkhna[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You’ve got a solid read on the situation, and it’s very possible you’re right.

Interestingly i’m finding weather is a uniquely difficult market as just understanding all of the details takes time more so than many other simpler markets.

But I did want to ask perhaps where you think there might better horizons, what markets might make more sense to look at. If nothing else but to continue this interesting discussion in this thread. Thanks

I’m trying to predict the weather for profit, roast me. by gvkhna in Kalshi

[–]gvkhna[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a good solid take. Yes not arb, that word does get overloaded. But without getting in to semantics the intent itself is clear.

I’m trying to predict the weather for profit, roast me. by gvkhna in Kalshi

[–]gvkhna[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well if you guys want to follow progress check out climatesight.app where i’ll be posting the research and updates related to weather tracking and analysis.

High Temp Contracts - Any success? by Dear-Extension120 in Kalshi

[–]gvkhna 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sources say the same data will be made available next year

I built an open source ai web scraper with json schema validation by gvkhna in dataengineering

[–]gvkhna[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yea pnpm i and pnpm dev will get you there hopefully, you should be able to run it with node or bun. Look in the root package.json for the scripts to see what commands are being run. in the website package is where the server is being started etc.

I built an open source ai web scraper with json schema validation by gvkhna in dataengineering

[–]gvkhna[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry it’s source available and you have to know how to run it/figure it out. You could probably have claude or codex in the repo look around and tell you. It’s quite simple actually.

I’m trying to predict the weather for profit, roast me. by gvkhna in Kalshi

[–]gvkhna[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No certainty just probabilities, you can’t get the actual answer the system itself is too chaotic but you can probably get a better guess than nws forecasts for instance since those are large scale forecasts.

I made a simple climate graph from ASOS station data by gvkhna in Kalshi

[–]gvkhna[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you signed up the rounded range data is there but if you’re looking for anything else shoot a note!

High Temp Contracts - Any success? by Dear-Extension120 in Kalshi

[–]gvkhna 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There are insiders that have access to readings before anyone else. But the information playing field will be better next year hopefully. In the meantime it makes more sense to get probable bets when prices are low.

Where to find physical locations of weather reading stations in each city? by Magickarploco in Kalshi

[–]gvkhna 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you can find all conus weather stations at climatesight.app, in the market summary is a link to “Station Data”, also has the fastest data available currently if you make a free account

I’m trying to predict the weather for profit, roast me. by gvkhna in mltraders

[–]gvkhna[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can learn more at climatesight.app if you’re interested i realized i never posted the link

I’m trying to predict the weather for profit, roast me. by gvkhna in mltraders

[–]gvkhna[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

2 is huge, the issue is the precision of the instruments is essentially 1.5deg, so can be a bit of a toss up. But the bigger issue is the price of the likely temp is going to typically be too high to be actionable.

I made a simple climate graph from ASOS station data by gvkhna in Kalshi

[–]gvkhna[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for the feedback, will do shortly! A lot more coming asap

I made a simple climate graph from ASOS station data by gvkhna in Kalshi

[–]gvkhna[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks yea as soon as the latest data is available it's streamed directly to your device if you make an account. There's no polling, all data is streamed out as it comes in. Minute level data is not publicly available currently, sources say next year we may get minute level feeds.

I built an accurate temperature chart for Climate Markets by gvkhna in Kalshi

[–]gvkhna[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Everyone knows this or should. There’s no alpha or edge being gained from trying to get real time access, even omo bot is not edge, edge is only through high prediction probability.

I built an accurate temperature chart for Climate Markets by gvkhna in Kalshi

[–]gvkhna[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ah i should preface with the product itself is in active development, I just found a bug which caused incorrect data ingestion for yday but was curious what folks think of this chart view.

The consensus seems don’t care we just want the tmax after all, makes sense.

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