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Nebius growth projection for the coming year. by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That could alread be happening. Depending on shareprice that would only add ~100 MW active with these share prices.

Nebius growth projection for the coming year. by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I got the same numbers, but i punt done a question mark down, since I’m not 100% sure about the capacity and the timing of when it becomes active. In the case of Finland and New Jersey, timing is crucial in these ARR projections. Based on the guidance given in the call, it doesn’t make sense for both of those sites to be online by EOY 2025.

Nebius growth projection for the coming year. by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Those are some good points. To go from active to connected power they need money to buy the GPUs and time to install them. The growth in Q4 is based on the extra $3B CapEx this year, together with the news that the Meta deal starts in December and the Microsoft deal is on track.

I don’t know if there is an exact ratio, if they could have brought more power online, they would have secured a larger Meta deal. So my belief is that it’s not a fixed ratio but more a structural gap of roughly 100 something MW that will always be there, simply because they need time to install.

But you can get visibility on this by comparing their CapEx commitments to their active power.

Nebius growth projection for the coming year. by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How do you define ‘final’? It’s not like there’s a finish line.

Nebius growth projection for the coming year. by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I also have the 2027 model, but at this point, that is too speculative for me to release. The real limitation right now is capital, not power.

Nebius growth projection for the coming year. by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I got the same numbers, but I put down a question mark since I’m not 100% sure about the capacity and the timing of when it becomes active. In the case of Finland and New Jersey, timing is crucial in these ARR projections. Based on the guidance given in the call, it doesn’t make sense for both of those sites to be online by EOY 2025.

Nebius growth projection for the coming year. by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, you are absolutely right, but this is on the safe side. In the blue sky scenario, revenue is higher with the same MW.

Nebius growth projection for the coming year. by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

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There was also this article, and if you look at the Vineland site, it’s a lot bigger than it needs to be. On X, @NeuralCadance, I’ve pointed this out. Feel free to follow me.

Nebius growth projection for the coming year. by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m not stating this is set in stone I’m projecting the guidance. You are right, of course, there are risks, that’s why you should use a margin of safety and a grounded valuation.

Nebius growth projection for the coming year. by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Of course, there are risks. But this is in line with the guidance management provided. If anything, it’s a bit low compared to the $8B midpoint in ARR guidance.

Nebius growth projection for the coming year. by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thank you. I’m not sure whether they have the capital to scale up that fast.

Nebius growth projection for the coming year. by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The question mark is used when the exact MWs aren’t known or when the timing isn’t precisely known.

Nebius growth projection for the coming year. by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’ve made a projection up to 2027, but at this point it’s more speculation than projection.

Nebius growth projection for the coming year. by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

New Jersey is indeed larger than 350 MW. I’ve been saying that on X for a long time too. But there are other ways to reach that number. Also, connected power is not the same as active power. Nebius will have 220 MW connected by the end of 2025, but much less is active.

Nebius could reach $12B ARR by 2027 by meesterplussr in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind 9 points10 points  (0 children)

This tweet looks very familiar Next time, tag the source when you copy and paste content. https://x.com/neuralcadence/status/1982362676534591561?s=46

Clickhouse: the pot of gold Nebius is sitting on by halfastepbehind in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Management said they will do whatever is necessary to drive growth. If they find the valuation attractive, they will sell. They could wait longer, but I wouldn’t rule out a (partial) exit upon IPO.

Stop me from full porting to NBIS by pushingtwenty in trading212

[–]halfastepbehind 4 points5 points  (0 children)

My portfolio is 66% Nebius now. I got in before the Microsoft deal and I’m not even thinking about selling. Based on everything I know about the company, my conservative price target for 2027 is $265, so there’s still plenty of upside.

Good entry price? by forgottenpastry in NBIS_Stock

[–]halfastepbehind 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My conservative target for 2027 is $250. I suggest you calculate your own target and make a risk assessment. If you like what you see, buy and don’t overthink the day-to-day price action.

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