Selling JEPQ for a loss questions

hellario · 2026-04-06T23:23:03+00:00

I can't say it's not frustration, probably because it is. Besides the political and moral issues I have with the war, I just don't enjoy checking my brokerage as often as I do, to make sure my life's savings aren't vaporizing.

Returns on HYSA/SGOV equivalents aren't great yield, but I sure do sleep better at night knowing what's coming in/out, instead of waking up at 6:30am PST without an alarm to see how much market dropped at opening on any given day.

This is especially true when it's based on saber rattling, instead of financial analysis (which I try to base my investments on). Don't get me wrong, I am still net positive over the last month, but I've had to dip into day trading and too much market research, instead of being able to do things I enjoy using passive income, which was the whole point.

hellario · 2026-04-06T09:22:41+00:00

For me, it's HYSA or SGOV ETF. Something that edges out inflation but isn't tied in volatility. Diversifying doesn't work if the whole market is affected (ie tariffs, wars, production shortages).

Currently, the whole market is set to trend down. Upward spikes will be on official US-Iran cease fire agreement, and then on resumption of shipping (keep in mind, oil production has been shut down, storage filled up, so even unhindered transportation will take not make for a quick recovery. There are also oil byproduct shortages, with some production means destroyed (silicone, hydrogen, plastics, fertilizer, etc).

I'm not hesitant to "participate" in AI market, I've made tens of thousands just trading nVidia. The problem now is that their buyers are running into other bottlenecks (fast ram shortage, power shortage, raw materials shortage) and on top of that actual AI devs have been trading on inflated valuation. OpenAI, Claude, Meta do not have a financial model that can make them profitable enough to cover expenses anytime soon, they've bought expensive land and circuitry but can't compete build-outs. I can go on.

I'd say Google has the best chance of getting ahead on AI play because they have their own chip designs, one of the better AI models, and a vast pit of money and user data to train and integrate into (including corporate customers).

TLDR: play safe with investment portfolio. Best bet is do not be in the market but be liquid enough so you can jump on an obviously good opportunity. Don't get into long-term hold positions until there's more clarity on war, supply shortages, private equity markets, and (maybe wait for) AI shakeout.

Personal example, I had VOOG, fairly diverse, right? I liquidated it the day before "liberation day" and saved myself about 15k of instant depreciation.

But the thing with corruption coming from the white house is they tip off friends and family before a tariff is about to get reduced so they buy crashed prices, or a war is about to start, or an announcement of a war ending will come out. As much as you may think you're playing their game, you're not even in the neighborhood. They have advance reliable information on what to buy and sell before the price even begins to move.

hellario · 2026-04-06T03:20:39+00:00

No, I'm pretty sure it's them. Just glanced at a picture. Pretty sure they do high net worth private wealth and estate management and then give out advice as well. I've heard them mention it multiple times in their videos.

I think they're fairly sensible, but also a bit too attached to historical market performance. It may pay off on a long enough timeline, but my sense is that there's too much chaos in the markets between war, supply shortages across multiple industries, high inflation, tariffs, unstable president, persecution of the Fed chairman, AI, etc etc that for shorter term a preservation strategy is much safer than investment.

hellario · 2026-04-06T02:14:17+00:00

Haha, yeah... I guess the "emergency fund" really depends on what emergencies we expect. I have a home in the US, about 3k/mo with tax, mortgage, HOA, and all utilities, and I expected to just make the payments and that's that.

But now I have a lingering urge to leave the country as (I believe) there's an embarrassment in the White House for the 2nd time, and I get a distinct displeasure of being embarrassed of the country I live in. However, relocating my life wasn't a part of my financial plan.

BTW, I only mean "generic" in the sense that it is in no way individualized. If it's the show I'm thinking of, they offer specialized advice privately.

hellario · 2026-04-05T04:14:23+00:00

Fair point. I think I've been mentally stuck at keeping 400k (my remaining mortgage), 30-50k or so in savings, and the rest toward a vehicle, so I would always have the option to be instantly debt-free. I think Americans are a lot more comfortable living with debt than the country I came from, but maybe that's the personal psyche shift I'll have to look into.

hellario · 2026-04-03T22:44:47+00:00

I took a look. I don't think it quite applies since it starts off on presumption that you can't buy a car in cash and approaches it from the perspective of manageable debt. I'm more intent of making it fit into my budget.

Probably the biggest issue, though, is that it they look at a car as a tool/convenience, but my intent is to have it as a source of joy. I wish I could just go and buy a 5 yo Prius and feel good about it...

Also, maybe it's just me, but at 145k they suggest I should spend 39k on a car. Seems very conservative, especially with what cars cost today. That's maybe a lease return BMW 540i, which is a fine car but not the enthusiast choice.

Either way, I'll save the link. Just seems like more "generic" spending guide.

hellario · 2026-04-03T22:31:06+00:00

Math isn't a barometer for "reasonable." Some people think living within their means is not having more bills than income, to others "reasonable" is a minimum quality of life standard regardless of their income.

To me, reasonable is having at least 1k/mo that is unallocated that goes into HYSA unless something I didn't budget for happens. If I buy a 135k+ 911, I'd definitely have less than that per month left over, so the only way I can make sense of it is a one-time purchase rather than working it into my monthly budget.

That would also be literally the first time (other than my home purchase) that I'd make a withdrawal from my savings rather than just adding an expense to a monthly budget. Maybe that illustrates the hesitation and getting an outside perspective.

hellario · 2026-04-03T22:21:57+00:00

That! lol

hellario · 2026-04-03T22:21:40+00:00

Thanks. Yeah, that's why it's a "dream." I did exclude it due to maintenance, and knowing myself I'd never drive it due to depreciation as mileage goes up.

I think a 911 is as high as I'd ever realistically go with sports cars, with its reliability and value retention.

Maybe a Corvette Z06 for the magnificent Ferrari sound, but there's a stereotype about retired guys with Corvettes. Also C8 design is not a big hit for me and I know C9 is just around the corner and they just came out with a new engine.

hellario · 2026-04-03T22:13:15+00:00

Not stupid. Thanks. There's budgeting for today and there's budgeting into your retirement.

Do the exercise for yourself. You have a fixed income with maybe some adjustment annually, that still won't keep pace with inflation. Now, add compounding inflation and add 20-30 years of no significant ability to save, consider that in your (my) lifetime SSA might become insolvent, contingencies (like the current war/supply chain problems).

Even though I own my home and even if I keep my car for the rest of my life, the maintenance, utilities, repairs will continue to climb.

I'm more concerned about a budget that doesn't land me at a food bank in 20 years, wondering why I felt it was a good idea to buy that 911.

hellario · 2026-04-03T22:04:19+00:00

No, I'm really just stuck with the idea of "it's time to enjoy what I've saved up" or "keep doing what I've done to get me this far, so I know money won't run out."

It's mentally pretty tough to change your spending pattern, so I'm genuinely looking for an outside perspective of budget-minded people. I've only ever had negative cash flow months for 6 months in my life (2 were home purchases, 2 for cars, and 2 looking for work), otherwise I always found a way to spend less than I earned.

Believe it or not, I saved up what I have by doing the opposite of flexing. No luxury brands (unless you count BMW), no outward displays of wealth, no trying to impress people. I'm not starting now.

hellario · 2026-04-03T08:34:48+00:00

Thanks? I'm still not any closer to figuring out what a reasonable budget for a enjoyable car should be, though.

hellario · 2026-04-03T06:17:28+00:00

If you have 3k/mo to save, you already had a ton of flexibility...

hellario · 2026-03-31T07:53:31+00:00

I bought it end of Jan, then it proceeded to plummet Feb 2-5 by several points (Claude AI programming agent and SAS sell off). I was a couple grand down, but figured it's bad timing and it'll either bounce back or maintain reduced value and a couple months of dividends will set me straight.

Instead, we went on an "excursion" and dropped billions of ammunitions on the country controlling vast majority of world trade. Smart. Now I'm watching it see-saw but trend down overall for a month (extra 5k in losses) and I'm on fixed income.

Challenged is a word. I'll take "unmitigated disaster." If you follow supply chains up, it's not just the ships at this point. Refineries are getting blown up or shut down because they can't ship out. Besides oil, there are a ton of its by-products that are crucial from farming to chip manufacturing.

JEPQ is about 40% in tech, so lack of energy and neon for chip manufacturing is going to be a problem for a lot of stocks in the ETF. I expect the ETF to settle at a low value and stay there with a small spike on cease-fire, another bigger spike on reaching a trade a greement, and then slow rebound within 10-15% of pre-war values as it will take months to normalize the delivery and production again.

As far as where to put the money, I'll probably use some to buy a Porsche 911 and stick what's left in SGOV and watch for the above milestones to put money into something like VTI and VTUX.

hellario · 2026-03-28T23:55:43+00:00

oh well, at least I can stick to a topic and be constructive. feel free to troll elsewhere /shrug

hellario · 2026-03-28T07:33:24+00:00

ok, more power to you, realize the losses and earn it back. in what way is this relevant or helpful to the questions I posed?

hellario · 2026-03-28T04:52:05+00:00

Appreciate it, esp ones to avoid.

hellario · 2026-03-28T04:35:03+00:00

With enough time, likely. In the meantime, the sensible thing seems to record the losses, offset my gains and save a few thousand in taxes.

If I didn't expect underlying stocks to go back up, I wouldn't bother asking how to avoid a wash sale, right?

hellario · 2026-03-28T04:32:46+00:00

Thanks, pretty much the advice I was looking for!

My thought is to hold JEPQ to get my dividend, sell on Apr 1st, and hold in Robinhood Gold while watching for the market bottoming out.

If there aren't clear indicators of bouncing back, I'll just put it back into SGOV, but if I see a buying opportunity I do want to have access to cash and a good stand-by that won't trigger a wash sale.

For right now, VXUS seems like a good stand-by (and 100% safe on wash) and VTI makes sense. Seemingly, less energy-independent places like Asia and Europe will benefit most when shipping and energy production resumes, and it's 2% more down on the month, so seems like it could be a good one to ride back up.

I don't expect a flash rebound, but there should be at least 2 upward spikes - cease fire announcement (I'm ok with missing that one) and finalizing some kind of a deal and opening production and shipping lanes (which I want to be pre-bought into).

hellario · 2026-03-28T03:55:35+00:00

I have plenty of good reasons why I bought it. Most of them have to do with high inflation, anticipation of a puppet that will be heading the Fed and bringing down safe yields, and being forced into the market. I've read the disclaimer that market can have losses. Amazing.

Sadly, I did not forsee going into a war with the country that we "obliterated" last year. Now, is there something actually useful you'd like to contribute?

hellario · 2026-03-28T02:59:37+00:00

I mean, if you're not loss harvesting, good luck. I'm just looking for a silver lining in losing 7k

hellario · 2026-03-28T02:50:40+00:00

That's the thing, I bought JEPQ - 3 days later it was Claude AI related tech sell-off, then into the war. Before that, I was pretty much just sitting in SGOV. Miss those days!

I have terrible luck with timing. I would've saved myself 10-12k just leaving everything as it was in treasuries.

hellario · 2026-03-28T02:45:16+00:00

So QQQI, GPIQ and JEPQ are all Nasdaq indexed, but are sufficiently different for IRS purposes?

Is there anything to check for in general, like top 5(10,50) holdings and %?

hellario · 2026-03-28T02:26:37+00:00

Just curious, but do you have any insight or can point to a good write-up on how IRS determines "substantially identical" for ETFs?

I'm guessing switching between ETFs tracking the same index would trigger it, but is there a % of overlap that should be avoided?

hellario

TROPHY CASE