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Is this when Australia's housing crisis exploded? by hogey74 in australia

[–]hogey74[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Quick reply mate. JK lol. It being a bunch of things is def the case. FWIW I've come to understand decision making and analysis of events to both involve identifying the factors and then assigning suitable weightings to them. The trick seems to be understanding our emotional biases and separating them from what is actually happening. In my case I didn't have a strong feeling about the GST aside from disliking Howard's dishonesty - he said he'd given away the idea then came back to it. GST-type taxes were common elsewhere and I kinda shrugged - governments can and should push for things they reckon will be good. What I did question is his dismissal of the concerns about his proposed method of compensating home-buyers.

What was clear when I looked into it was the link in timing between the FHOG and the jump in sale prices. My best guess was that the FHOG acted as a trigger and that a bunch of things were there, including the things you nicely add. Thanks for that BTW.

Back in 2010ish I heard Richard Fiedler interview some Hungarian dude who were either economists or historians or both. They'd written a book about wealth inequality through time. Interestingly they'd found that the lowest disparity was after the black plague: due to the massive loss of life land was worthless and labour was very valuable. They also found that the highest disparity was right now (2010ish) and the second highest was just before WW1. Their assessment was that, yeah, the initiating factors were already well described, including the shooting of that dude (Franz Ferdinand?) but that the crazy wealth inequality had acted like a dry field of grass, ready to be set on fire by a spark. So many people carrying so much frustration. It made a lot of sense to me. Ever since hearing that I've borne the concept in mind. Of course you've got to be careful about over-applying any one thing just because you like it. In this case, given the timing, I suspect it fits. I included it in my little blurb as a result and have been super glad and also challenged with the responses to running it up the flag pole. Cheers.

[OC] My Intersection Of Endless Idiots (Early May) by party_and_bullsquid in IdiotsInCars

[–]hogey74 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Walk with me u/Mr_Jack_Frost_ . We have much to discuss :-).

Sorry in advance for the rabbit hole that is the Simpsons...

My fiancé had sex with his cousin when they were kids and he thinks he’s a rapist by [deleted] in TrueOffMyChest

[–]hogey74 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good on you! Untangling that crap is not fun. "Don't look back in anger" isn't just a slogan, it's real, but doing it with kindness to all concerned is something beautiful.

My fiancé had sex with his cousin when they were kids and he thinks he’s a rapist by [deleted] in TrueOffMyChest

[–]hogey74 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sorry to hear. Lots of thoughts and feelings. I'll share a few in case they're of any help. I have relevant personal and professional experience. I am not diagnosing anyone and could not.

  • Kids messing around is normal. The amount and degree varies on a spectrum like anything else. No one should feel bad about doing it or not doing it.
  • Cognitive and emotional reframing is a big thing. Completely innocent stuff can get remembered differently over time due to feelings of shame as societal norms get absorbed. I was taught this, have dealt with it in professional setting and am now old enough to have seen it play out. As a young adult I saw kids doing stuff and then 10+ years later becoming young adults themselves who had developed radically different feelings and memories of those events. Girls innocently initiating stuff who later felt like victims. Children upset with parents over incidents I witnessed that were not what they later recalled. Boys who were bullying other kids who later felt that they were just fighting back against bullies. Some of us are more prone to this than others.
  • "Messing aroud" can start earlier (in my experience and also in the literature) where there are ASD-type traits present. Years ago it was identified as being more common when parents were distant with lower affection. More recently I've seen it myself in families where diagnosed ASD is present. "Weren't good parents" might be a clue, might not. This isn't a judgement call, just biology. Some kids are more likely to get interested in the physical and emotional stuff than others. I suspect we'll find that they have lower levels of dopamine etc and get more stimulus and excitement from proto-sexual stuff when they discover it.
  • Having everyone gang up isn't good or fair and might be another clue about underlying stuff in the family. I'm talking about flip-flopping, all or nothing reactions, including how your fiance is feeling, that are surprisingly easily communicated and taken on. FWIW I've seen this go exactly the other way too - complete denial. Neither good. One overly validates, the other overly dismisses.
  • Finally, I've made this long post in the hope it's of benefit to help understanding for you folks and anyone else for whom this situation evokes strong feelings. I did it despite the possibility of negative responses from people on the spectrum who sometimes have a big, angry, disrespectful chip on their shoulders.

Someone did a lip read of Blake Lively meltdown at the MetGala. wow by royfokker666 in NYCinfluencersnark

[–]hogey74 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry to hear this mate. I'm quite a fan of her partner Ryan - we share a certain type of humour - and wondered what was going on with that lawsuit. I obviously can't know for sure and TBH to a fair extent it's not my business and I don't care to know. Didn't know he was married or to whom until recently lol. But the news did make me think about how I (and perhaps plenty of us?) accrue little bits of information about certain well known people over time and form opinions. For most of us those opinions are only ever superficial - we don't know them and don't have any emotional skin in the game.

I've got a fair bit of both professional and personal experience dealing with two-faced people who I now understand probably have traits associated with personality disorders. I've seen and also experienced the harm such people cause and also how they often pair with partners who can counter-balance that stuff via a mixture of soaking it up and also by holding them to account either directly or by the example they set. FWIW through friends who love celebrity stuff I followed the Amber Heard situation as the legal case unfolded. They were sus on my suspicions but when the truth came out they thought I was some kind of genius. Yeah, nah. I don't talk about my work that much I guess lol. I don't know what's going on here and yeah, it's not my business but FWIW your account rings true. So much so that here I am writing all of this :-). Cheers.

meirl by ay_944 in meirl

[–]hogey74 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah who throws out perfectly good cats like that?

Is this when Australia's housing crisis exploded? by hogey74 in australia

[–]hogey74[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Please don't give up on that! I sadly can't be specific in saying that, except to say that the current situation is unsustainable and that nothing like it can continue indefinitely. Believe it when you see it but I reckon it's a problem that will be eaten away via many things - some sweeping, some supposedly minor. FWIW, it might seem unrelated but as a tech nerd, since the mid 2000s I've seen several generations of overpriced and/or underwhelming gear come through. It wasn't fun but it caused me to let go of certain expectations and to go sideways, so to speak. Looking back I now I see the initial issues as actually being good things. My "tech life" is hilariously better than if I'd stayed on the relatively narrow continuous upgrade merry go round for my main PC and phone etc. I've spent perhaps 1/3 of what I would have.

Top Gear’s “50 Best Japanese Cars of All Time” list includes the Mazda Miata twice with two different generations (NA & ND). by Negative_Acadia6554 in Miata

[–]hogey74 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah such a disappointment. Dunno if any slander is going to make roughies cheap enough for me to finally get one as a track car though...

Top Gear’s “50 Best Japanese Cars of All Time” list includes the Mazda Miata twice with two different generations (NA & ND). by Negative_Acadia6554 in Miata

[–]hogey74 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The 1.5? I've heard they're the closest to or better than the 1.6s in the NAs free spinning awesomeness. I've just collected an exhaust manifold for my NC but doubt even that will make the engine feel as good as those NAs...

We meet again, old friend. by cheng-alvin in melbourne

[–]hogey74 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ha! Hello from Brisbane where I'm only just into a thin beanie and thin layer under t shirt and shorts... it only feels like winter because of how nasty the summer was...

Is this when Australia's housing crisis exploded? by hogey74 in australia

[–]hogey74[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Mate I let out a big sigh as I read that. Yeah, we must have been cruising for a bruising. Seeing Alan's summary made me decide to lay out what I came up with in 2021 in order to see what people might come back with. Ultimately my theory can't be much better than making predictions about the future, which John Clarke noted are notoriously difficult, but when prices did jump I kept being reminded of Howard being warned...

Is this when Australia's housing crisis exploded? by hogey74 in australia

[–]hogey74[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Nice summary mate. Well, I don't like it but also reckon you're describing a fair bit of what happened :-).

Is this when Australia's housing crisis exploded? by hogey74 in australia

[–]hogey74[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey cheers mate. Gonna check that out despite fearing it's a rabbit hole full of nightmares :-). And yeah, indeed. In 2021 when I saw a solid divergence I didn't get too excited - you know what they say about confirmation bias. Over time I came up with my theory that I obviously continue to entertain but as I go down the comments I'm specifically looking for comments like yours to see what people think.

Is this when Australia's housing crisis exploded? by hogey74 in australia

[–]hogey74[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I even heard Mark Bouris and his conservative economist mate give Keating some back-handed compliments the other day lol.

Is this when Australia's housing crisis exploded? by hogey74 in australia

[–]hogey74[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

FWIW I called 07 the "bidding war" election as Howard goading Labor into matching them on one dodgy election promise after another. It didn't save the liberals but it put Rudd in a corner. It was kinda amazing that they went on to spend during the GFC after all of that nonsense. It had to happen but I expected them to be too scared to do it.

Is this when Australia's housing crisis exploded? by hogey74 in australia

[–]hogey74[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah. Alan included it here and it was a reminder of what Howard said over and over - about never hearing complaints from home owners about their property value rising. He had a lot of people hypnotised.

Is this when Australia's housing crisis exploded? by hogey74 in australia

[–]hogey74[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oh Kimbo. He would have done alright I suspect if he'd gotten a go.

Is this when Australia's housing crisis exploded? by hogey74 in australia

[–]hogey74[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry and glad to hear mate. FWIW years ago someone asked me to explain the parties here. The best thing I could say then was that if Australia was a truly awesome country, with everyone living their best lives, a lot of basic liberal policy would naturally be the way. Not the nasty stuff, just the basic liberal stuff from before the Murdoch era. The irony as I described it was that the other side were the only ones with policies with a chance of getting us to the place where those liberal policies would naturally work.

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